Day Presentation by Johan Rockstrom

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Key note presentation on Dr. Johan Rockstrom which places the water and food crisis in a wider global perspective.

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  • The biophysical responses of the Earth System show many of the same features as the Great Acceleration in the human enterprise. The hockeystick pattern applies all key indicators that form the basis for human well being and environmental health.
  • Nitrous oxide makes up an extremely small amount of the atmosphere - it is less than one-thousandth as abundant as carbon dioxide. However, it is 200 to 300 times more effective in trapping heat than carbon dioxide. Nitrogen is removed from the atmosphere by plants and converted into forms such as ammonia, which can then be used by the plants. This is called nitrogen fixation. At the same time, micro-organisms remove nitrogen from the soil and put it back into the atmosphere - denitrification - and this process produces nitrous oxide. Nitrous oxide also enters the atmosphere from the ocean. Nitrous oxide has one of the longest atmosphere lifetimes of the greenhouse gases, lasting for up to 150 years. Burning fossil fuels and wood is one source of the increase in atmospheric nitrous oxide, however the main contributor is believed to be the widespread use of nitrogen-base fertilisers. Sewage treatment plants may also be a major source of this gas. Since the Industrial Revolution, the level of nitrous oxide in the atmosphere has increased by 16%.
  • Day Presentation by Johan Rockstrom

    1. 1. CPWF 3rd International Forum South Africa 14th November 2011 Prof. Johan Rockström Stockholm Resilience Centre Stockholm Environment Institute The grand challenge for humanity: Water and Food in the Anthropocene
    2. 2. Growing Human Pressure [20/80 dilemma] Climate change [560/450/400 dilemma] Surprise [99/1 dilemma] Ecosystem decline [60 % loss dilemma]
    3. 5. Kummu, Ward, de Moel, Varis 2010 Environmental Research Letters
    4. 6. Water for Food needs to meet the hunger MDG
    5. 7. 11-11-18 Johan Rockström and Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre Humanity has reached a planetary saturation point A resilient biosphere the basis for humen development Climate change one interacting component of global sustainability A great transformation to global sustainability necessary, possible, and desirable
    6. 8. Resilience Water and Food in Agricultural Landscapes Global Environmental Change Global Sustainability now a prerequisite to attain the UN Millennium Development Goals Human Development
    7. 9. ” When reality is changing faster than theory suggests it should, a certain amount of nervousness is a reasonable response ” The Economist
    8. 10. Atmospheric CO 2 concentration Etheridge et al. Geophys Res 101: 4115-4128 IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
    9. 11. Northern hemisphere average surface temperature IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004 Mann et al Geophys Res Lett 26(6): 759-762
    10. 12. Atmospheric N 2 O concentration IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004 Machida et al Geophys Res Lett 22:2921-2925
    11. 13. Atmospheric CH 4 concentration IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004 Blunier et al J Geophy Res 20: 2219-2222
    12. 14. Ozone depletion IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004 JD Shanklin British Antarctic Survey
    13. 15. Natural climactic disasters IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
    14. 16. Ocean ecosystems IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004 FAOSTAT 2002 Statistical database
    15. 17. Coastal zone nitrogen flux IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004 Mackenzie et al 2002.
    16. 18. Tropical rainforest and woodland loss IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004 Richards, the Earth as transformed by human action, Cambridge University Press
    17. 19. Domesticated land IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004 Klein Goldewijk and Batties
    18. 20. Species extinctions IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004 Wilson, the Diversity of Life.
    19. 21. The Planetary Response to the drivers of the Anthropocene ” the great acceleration of the human entreprise ” , Professor Will Steffen 1900 1950 2000 CO 2 , N 2 O, CH 4 concentrations Overfishing Land degradation Loss Biodiversity … .. 2010-2020
    20. 22. OECD Green Growth Report 2011 20th Century Population 4X Economic Output 22X Fossil fuel consumption 14X
    21. 23. Critical transitions or regime shifts
    22. 24. 1 2 <ul><li>overfishing, coastal </li></ul><ul><li>e utrophication </li></ul><ul><li>phosphorous accum- </li></ul><ul><li>ulation in soil and mud </li></ul><ul><li>fire prevention </li></ul>3 state shift <ul><li>disease, </li></ul><ul><li>h urricane </li></ul><ul><li>f looding, warming, </li></ul><ul><li>overexploitation </li></ul><ul><li>of predators </li></ul><ul><li>good rains, continu- </li></ul><ul><li>ous heavy grazing </li></ul>coral dominance clear water grassland 4 algal dominance turbid water shrub-bushland Valuable Ecosystem Services Loss of ecosystem services (Desirable) (Undesirable)
    23. 26. +
    24. 27. The Resilience of the Earth System
    25. 28. Humanity ’ s 10,000 years of grace
    26. 29. … Rockström et al. 2009 Nature, 461 (24): 472-475 Global fresh- water use Transgressing safe boundaries
    27. 30. Adapted from Canadell et al., 2007 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Gt Carbon/yr land ocean atmosphere Resilience of the Earth system
    28. 31. Water Resilience - Managing Moisture Feedback
    29. 32. Australia ’ s Great Barrier Reef Sweden ’ s urban landscapes Latin America ’ s agricultural revolution Water Resilience: Turning crisis into opportunity A shift in mindset for transformation WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY Preparing the system for change Navigating the transition Building resilience of the new direction
    30. 33. <ul><li>A triply Green Revolution </li></ul><ul><ul><li>2-3 X productivity </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Social-Ecological Resilience </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Green water management </li></ul></ul>The new water for food challenge

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