1. Topic Working Group:
Global Drivers… or
Gl b l D i
What’s affecting things in your basin?
Wh t’ ff ti thi i b i ?
Is your basin significant globally?
Simon Cook, Independent Consultant
Simon Cook Independent Consultant
Basin Leader Meeting
Vientiane, Laos, 18. January 2011
Vientiane Laos 18 January 2011

2. Global drivers [need new name]
Global drivers [need new name]
The intention...
The intention The reality...for BLs
The reality for BLs
• Why is TWG4 needed? • How will TWG4 benefit me
• What does TWG4 do?
What does TWG4 do? as a BL?
• What will it cost me?
• Who is in TWG4?
• What, specifically, can I
• What will TWG produce in
What will TWG produce in expect? ?
2011?
• What happens next?

3. Why is TWG4 needed?
Why is TWG4 needed?
• CPWF is a global program, aiming for global impact through
basins
• The food and water ‘problem’ is a global issue
– ecosystem need to support over 9Bn people in 2050, already
y pp p p , y
showing major problems
• Individual BDCs focus on change in basins but the program
also aims for global impact
– Change is primarily local, but global impact comes from non‐
random, collective change that shows regional and global
patterns.
• Food, water and development linkages are expressed
d dd l l k d
differently within basins
– But what ‘drives’ them?

4. • Consider the following statements
Consider the following statements
– “My basin is not affected to any significant degree
by global processes”
– “What happens in my basin is unique. It is of no
importance globally or even to other basins in the
region”
• If
If you agree with the above statements (and
ih h b ( d
you are correct!), you do not need this TWG

5. TWG4 addresses 3 questions:
TWG4 addresses 3 questions:
• How do global ‘drivers’ influence conditions in
o do g oba d e s ue ce co d t o s
basins?
– GCC? Development trends? Trade flows? Population
pressures? Regional politics?
• How do changes within basins collectively
influence global conditions?
influence global conditions?
– Political contagion, regional adaptation, spread of
innovation.
• What are the changes in behaviour indicated by
this insight?

6. What does TWG4 do?
What does TWG4 do?
• 1 Basin=> global
– How changes in basins add up to global importance
How changes in basins add up to global importance
• Population growth, urbanization, industrialization trends are general, if varied
• Water productivity changes reflect a global trend
• Water scarcity is increasing
• Agricultural productivity / value moving patchily
• 2 Global => basin
– How global‐scale processes influence changes within basins
• How well are the basins moving along a common ‘development trajectory’?
• Is the basin influenced seriously by GCC?
• Is the food system strongly influenced by international trade ?
• How influential are population or demographic trends ?
H i fl ti l l ti d hi t d ?
• 3 Specific examples from basins
– Examples of processes in basins that have potential global importance
– Examples of global processes that influence conditions in basins
• 4 Pathways for change
– Who needs to know about changes? How will this be used? What specific insight is needed?

7. Who is in TWG4?
Who is in TWG4?
In 2011...
In 2011
• Leader / coordinator
• BLs....
• ‘Shadow’ network from BFPs
• Specialist consultants

8. What will TWG4 produce in 2011?
What will TWG4 produce in 2011?
• Discussion group
Discussion group
• Launch pad for BFP book?
• Working paper to clarify specifics in basins and
ki l if ifi i b i d
globally. To identify
– Impact of global conditions in basins
– Potential of basin processes to global processes
• Workshop

9. The reality: what benefit for me as a BL?
The reality: what benefit for me as a BL?
• Greater certainty
Greater certainty
– What’s affecting projects in my basin?
– How important are my projects globally?
How important are my projects globally?
– What things can I safely ignore?
• C t t ith
Contact with specialists
i li t
– Insight
– Analysis
– New data

10. Why should I care?
Not all basins have same level of interest
N ll b i h l l fi
Importance of
Basin to global
Basin to global
G
A
N
V
M
L Influence of global
processes on
basins

11. Basin Examples of basin processes that are of potential global impact Examples of global processes that impact conditions
within basins
within basins
Andes Learning from PES to share natural resources GCC will profoundly influence flows
High value agriculture increase WProd Land use changes resulting from int. trade
Urbanization will change the demands for natural
resources
Global market chains can support high value
agriculture
Ganges Adaptive response of food systems to GCC Population growth must decline to reduce pressures
Water politics: learning to change on NR‐systems
Improvements of rainfed water productivity Increasing industrialization necessary to meet
aspirations
Political influence – barrier to land use change?
Mekong What can be learned regionally from the politics of sharing of Trade: A regional energy ‘crisis’ profoundly disturbs
water resources between HP and other interests? conditions in the basin
What are new institutional arrangements to adapt to rapidly
What are new institutional arrangements to adapt to rapidly International markets for aquaculture produce: a
International markets for aquaculture produce: a
changing conditions? response to demand for income security.
GCC and the delta.
Nile Delta: high value productivity enables trading of virtual water for Population pressure in Lakes region
food security GCC impacts?
Increased rainfed w‐productivity: how can change happen in What role international markets for food or income
Ethiopia and elsewhere in Africa? security?
Is the NBI an effective political model?
Volta VBA an example of success? GCC introduces major uncertainties to an already‐
p g
ECOWAS an example of suitable convening institution? marginal area
g
Are the pathways to improve ag‐productivity generalizable Population growth in Sudano‐Sahel zone concern,
elsewhere in Africa [eg ‘Gates’ Breadbasket economies’]‐ leads to out‐migration

12. The reality: what will it cost me?
The reality: what will it cost me?
• Consideration:
Co s de at o :
– Thinking beyond immediate activities
– Advising about things that seem important
• Some days:
– Engagement with ‘external’ specialists in working
papers
– Evaluation of working papers
• Contact
Contact
– Putting specialists in touch with the problem as you
see it.

13. What specifically can I expect in 2011?
What specifically can I expect in 2011?
• Collective review of basins:
– From BFPs
• Engagement to indentify specific issues:
– Internet dialogue
– Face to face meetings where possible
• Involvement with working paper
Involvement with working paper
– Putting specialists to work on the problem as you see it.
• Engagement with workshop (tbd)
gage e o s op ( bd)
Basically, defining the agenda...

14. What happens next?
What happens next?
• Review basin issues from the BFPs:
Review basin issues from the BFPs:
• Discussion of issues as they are deemed
important / irrelevant to you
important / irrelevant to you
• Review of modelling approaches
– What insight do you need?
– How can it be provided
• Putting ideas together in a working paper
• (Small) workshop...interested?
(Small) workshop...interested?

15. For discussion....?
For discussion....?
• Importance
po ta ce
– How important are global issues to my basin?
– How important are my basin’s issues globally?
– Can I see behaviours that are helpful/unhelpful to
adapt to these processes?
• Wh t
What partners would I like to see?
t ld I lik t ?
• What will I use from this TWG? Do I know how I
will use it?
will use it?
• What will keep me engaged?
– Value new data? New insight? New proposals?
Value, new data? New insight? New proposals?