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Unpacking the results of the Gujarat Elections 2017

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Presentation by Neelanjan Sircar, presented at the Centre for Policy Research on 22 December, 2017.

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Unpacking the results of the Gujarat Elections 2017

  1. 1. Background Urban-Rural Polarization Inequality of Access Conclusions A Quick Look at Gujarat 2017 Neelanjan Sircar 22 December 2017 Neelanjan Sircar A Quick Look at Gujarat 2017
  2. 2. Background Urban-Rural Polarization Inequality of Access Conclusions The Lead Up From Caste to Class Election Results The Lead Up BJP came to power in 1995 under Keshubhai Patel and has been in power since then (22 years) Extremely stable coalition – between 1995 and 2012, BJP won between 115 to 127 out of 182 seats The banner of Hindu identity created a cross-caste coalition Hardik Patel – a political superstar Neelanjan Sircar A Quick Look at Gujarat 2017
  3. 3. Background Urban-Rural Polarization Inequality of Access Conclusions The Lead Up From Caste to Class Election Results From Caste to Class Caste patronage vs. caste mobilization (for class) The impossibility of balancing rural and urban prices Proximate trigger: Dropping prices of cotton and groundnut The human development problem Neelanjan Sircar A Quick Look at Gujarat 2017
  4. 4. Background Urban-Rural Polarization Inequality of Access Conclusions The Lead Up From Caste to Class Election Results Election Results for Gujarat 2012 and 2017 182 seats total BJP won 115 seats in 2012 but only 99 in 2017 Vote shares – 2012: 48% 2017: 49% Congress won 61 seats in 2012 but only 77 in 2017 Vote shares – 2012: 39% 2017: 41% Neelanjan Sircar A Quick Look at Gujarat 2017
  5. 5. Background Urban-Rural Polarization Inequality of Access Conclusions The Lead Up From Caste to Class Election Results BJP Strike Rates 2012 63 2017 54 010203040506070 BJPStrikeRate Neelanjan Sircar A Quick Look at Gujarat 2017
  6. 6. Background Urban-Rural Polarization Inequality of Access Conclusions The Lead Up From Caste to Class Election Results Gujarat 2012 Election Neelanjan Sircar A Quick Look at Gujarat 2017
  7. 7. Background Urban-Rural Polarization Inequality of Access Conclusions The Lead Up From Caste to Class Election Results Gujarat 2017 Election Neelanjan Sircar A Quick Look at Gujarat 2017
  8. 8. Background Urban-Rural Polarization Inequality of Access Conclusions Big Cities Agricultural Share Big Cities 2012 90 2017 90 2012 55 2017 44 01030507090 BJPStrikeRate Big City Others Neelanjan Sircar A Quick Look at Gujarat 2017
  9. 9. Background Urban-Rural Polarization Inequality of Access Conclusions Big Cities Agricultural Share Increasing Polarization Visible 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.30.40.50.60.70.80.9 Proportion Urban in AC EstimatedBJPStrikeRate 2012 2017 Neelanjan Sircar A Quick Look at Gujarat 2017
  10. 10. Background Urban-Rural Polarization Inequality of Access Conclusions Big Cities Agricultural Share Increasing Polarization Visible 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.30.40.50.60.70.80.9 Proportion Urban in AC EstimatedBJPStrikeRate 2012 2017 Neelanjan Sircar A Quick Look at Gujarat 2017
  11. 11. Background Urban-Rural Polarization Inequality of Access Conclusions Big Cities Agricultural Share Agricultural Share 2012 80 2017 73 2012 49 2017 30 01030507090 BJPStrikeRate Ag. % < 50 Ag. % > 65 Neelanjan Sircar A Quick Look at Gujarat 2017
  12. 12. Background Urban-Rural Polarization Inequality of Access Conclusions Identity Amenities Characterizing Economic Inequality Challenges for Policy and Parties The Impossibility of Urban and Rural Prices (w/o human development) Is this an anomaly for Congress? How does Congress Hardik Patels inside the party? Next year could be tricky for BJP Neelanjan Sircar A Quick Look at Gujarat 2017

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