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Claus-Peter Polster Deliberate and accidental release  of toxic chemicals  -  differences and similarities  for the  Natio...
Aim <ul><li>To understand the differences and similiarities between deliberate and accidental release of toxic chemicals <...
<ul><li>Hazard </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Any  potential  or  real  condition which may cause injury/disease or death, damage o...
<ul><li>Risk </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The  probability  (likelyhood) with which a catastrophic event may occur </li></ul></ul...
Definitions <ul><li>Intent </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Group/Individual </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Motivation </li></ul></ul><ul...
<ul><li>Vulnerability V </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Degree of loss  to a given element at risk resulting from a given hazard at ...
<ul><li>Risk management </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Identification of the hazard </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Evaluation of the ri...
Significant deliberate releases <ul><li>1984 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>USA Salmonella -> 0 killed, thousands sick </li></ul></...
Significant conventional attacks <ul><li>1983 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Beirut, truck-bomb -> 242 killed, several injured </li...
Significant industrial accidents <ul><li>1976  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Italy, Dioxine -> 0 killed immediately, > 2000 injure...
FACTS database <ul><li>About 19.000 accidents with hazardous materials worldwide </li></ul><ul><ul><li>1.700 natural gas <...
 
 
 
Deliberate or accidental ? Different or similiar ? Source (Intent) Substance (Hazard) Dissemination (Magnitude) Response (...
Recovery <ul><li>Decontamination of contaminated soil, infrastructure, buildings </li></ul><ul><li>Rebuilding of destroyed...
Targets vulnerability <ul><li>Structural resistance of buildings </li></ul><ul><li>Tight windows, doors etc. </li></ul><ul...
Response <ul><li>Identical for deliberate acts and major accidents </li></ul><ul><li>Substances may differ </li></ul><ul><...
Dissemination <ul><li>Industrial </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Leaks </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Bursts, explosions </li></ul></ul>...
Substance <ul><li>Receipes available @ WWW (?) </li></ul><ul><li>Aum Shinruku spend > 1 Mio US $ for research </li></ul><u...
1 10 20 100 200 Chlorine Cyanogen Chloride Phosgene Hydrogen Cyanide Mustard Sarin VX 600 RELATIVE LETHALITY IN RELATION T...
Source (Intent) <ul><li>Chemical production is  overt , intentional release is  covert  ! </li></ul><ul><li>Plant safety  ...
Chemical warfare without CW ? “ Gas is insidious. It often causes casualties without any warning.  It exerts a tremendous ...
Fatalities Injuries Atropine overdose Anxiety 2 224 230 544 18 January - 28 February 1991  Iraqi SCUD attacks on Israel
Fatalities Hospitalized Ambulant “ Non-Casualties” 4500 1000 12 200 20 March 1995
 
Typical Contents of a National Preparedness Plan <ul><li>A policy statement </li></ul><ul><li>Legislative authority </li><...
Typical Contents of a National Preparedness Plan <ul><li>Roles and relationship within the government levels </li></ul><ul...
Typical Contents of a National Preparedness Plan <ul><li>Operations of warning systems </li></ul><ul><li>Preparedness prep...
Typical Contents of a National Preparedness Plan <ul><li>Communications arrangements and telecommunications equipment and ...
<ul><li>Agreements and linkages with other regions, countries and international organisations </li></ul><ul><li>Testing an...
Conclusions <ul><li>There are differences in deliberate and accidental release </li></ul><ul><li>The practical differences...
Questions ?
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Deliberate And Accidental Release of Toxic Chemicals

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Deliberate And Accidental Release of Toxic Chemicals

  1. 1. Claus-Peter Polster Deliberate and accidental release of toxic chemicals - differences and similarities for the National Preparedness Plan
  2. 2. Aim <ul><li>To understand the differences and similiarities between deliberate and accidental release of toxic chemicals </li></ul><ul><li>To understand the consequences of these differences and similiarities for the Risk Management </li></ul><ul><li>To know the typical contents of a National Preparedness Plan </li></ul>
  3. 3. <ul><li>Hazard </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Any potential or real condition which may cause injury/disease or death, damage or loss of property </li></ul></ul>Definitions
  4. 4. <ul><li>Risk </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The probability (likelyhood) with which a catastrophic event may occur </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Multiplied with the severity of the outcome </li></ul></ul>Definitions
  5. 5. Definitions <ul><li>Intent </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Group/Individual </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Motivation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Organisation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Opportunity </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Objective </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Capability </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Acquisition </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Development </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Testing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Target selection </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Deployment </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Threat </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Type </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Character </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Magnitude </li></ul></ul>
  6. 6. <ul><li>Vulnerability V </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Degree of loss to a given element at risk resulting from a given hazard at a given severity, also „resilience“ 1/V </li></ul></ul>Definitions
  7. 7. <ul><li>Risk management </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Identification of the hazard </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Evaluation of the risk </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Risk decision </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Implementation of hazard controls </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Monitoring and evaluation of controls </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Response </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Mitigation of consequences </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Recovery </li></ul></ul>Risk Management
  8. 8. Significant deliberate releases <ul><li>1984 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>USA Salmonella -> 0 killed, thousands sick </li></ul></ul><ul><li>1994 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Japan Sarin -> 7 killed, 270 injured </li></ul></ul><ul><li>1995 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Japan Sarin -> 12 killed, 5000 injured* </li></ul></ul><ul><li>2001 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>USA, Chile, Pakistan, Anthrax -> 5 killed, 35 cases </li></ul></ul><ul><li>∑ ~ 25 killed, < 10.000 injured </li></ul>* Other sources ~ 200 injured
  9. 9. Significant conventional attacks <ul><li>1983 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Beirut, truck-bomb -> 242 killed, several injured </li></ul></ul><ul><li>1985 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Air India, bomb -> all 329 on board killed </li></ul></ul><ul><li>1988 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Pan Am 103, air plane bomb -> all 259 on board killed </li></ul></ul><ul><li>1993 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>WTC, car bomb -> 6 killed, 1.000 injured </li></ul></ul><ul><li>1995 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Oklahoma City, truck bomb, 166 killed, hundreds injured </li></ul></ul><ul><li>1996 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Colombo, truck bomb -> 90 killed, 1.400 injured </li></ul></ul><ul><li>1998 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Nairobi, truck bomb -> 291 killed, 5.000 injured </li></ul></ul><ul><li>2001 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>WTC, commercial airplane -> 3.500 killed, ?? Injured </li></ul></ul><ul><li>∑ 4.500 killed, 8.000 injured </li></ul>
  10. 10. Significant industrial accidents <ul><li>1976 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Italy, Dioxine -> 0 killed immediately, > 2000 injured </li></ul></ul><ul><li>1984 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>India, Methyl Isocyanate -> > 3.589 killed, 100.000 injured </li></ul></ul><ul><li>1984 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Mexico, Gas tank explosion -> 452 killed, 4.248 injured </li></ul></ul><ul><li>1988 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Pakistan, Munitions plant explosion -> 78 killed, 1.500 injured </li></ul></ul><ul><li>1992 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Mexico, Sewer explosion -> 22 killed, 1.600 injured </li></ul></ul><ul><li>2000 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Netherlands, Fireworks explosion -> 22 killed, 944 injured </li></ul></ul><ul><li>∑ > 4.000 killed, > 100.000 injured </li></ul>
  11. 11. FACTS database <ul><li>About 19.000 accidents with hazardous materials worldwide </li></ul><ul><ul><li>1.700 natural gas </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>650 ammonia </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>850 chlorine </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>1.850 LPG </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>1.850 road transport </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>1.000 rail transport </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>4.500 environmental damage </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>5.600 human error </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>305 sabotage </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>11 during Navigation (crude oil) </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>67 with Pipeline (crude oil, petrol, natural gas) </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>17 during Production / Processing </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>12 during Rail transport </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>12 during Road transport </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>118 during Storage </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>61 during Use / Application </li></ul></ul></ul></ul>
  12. 15. Deliberate or accidental ? Different or similiar ? Source (Intent) Substance (Hazard) Dissemination (Magnitude) Response (Control & Mitigation) Targets (Vulnerability) Recovery
  13. 16. Recovery <ul><li>Decontamination of contaminated soil, infrastructure, buildings </li></ul><ul><li>Rebuilding of destroyed structures </li></ul><ul><li>Decontamination of groundwater </li></ul><ul><li>Toxic waste disposal </li></ul><ul><li>Recovery from </li></ul><ul><li>non-tangible losses </li></ul><ul><li>Recovery of the environment </li></ul>
  14. 17. Targets vulnerability <ul><li>Structural resistance of buildings </li></ul><ul><li>Tight windows, doors etc. </li></ul><ul><li>Population density </li></ul><ul><li>Sociologic structure (children, elderly) </li></ul><ul><li>Education </li></ul><ul><li>Poverty </li></ul><ul><li>Access to medical services </li></ul><ul><li>Access to information </li></ul><ul><li>Malnutrition </li></ul><ul><li>Pre-conditions </li></ul><ul><li>The poorest are always hit the worst! </li></ul>
  15. 18. Response <ul><li>Identical for deliberate acts and major accidents </li></ul><ul><li>Substances may differ </li></ul><ul><li>The „Second Device“ </li></ul><ul><li>Spread-out pattern may differ </li></ul><ul><li>Medical services will be the focus </li></ul><ul><li>For accidents more information may be available </li></ul>
  16. 19. Dissemination <ul><li>Industrial </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Leaks </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Bursts, explosions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Spills </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Mostly static </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>CBW </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Food, other commodities </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Breakable containers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Crude sprayer devices </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Makeshift exploding devices </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Acquired military devices </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>At will </li></ul></ul></ul>
  17. 20. Substance <ul><li>Receipes available @ WWW (?) </li></ul><ul><li>Aum Shinruku spend > 1 Mio US $ for research </li></ul><ul><li>Most devices did not work (including 9 attempts to use anthrax) </li></ul><ul><li>Likely </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Cyanide </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Commercial pestcontrol substances </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>ITOX, HAZMAT </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Rizin </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Sulfur Mustard </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Unlikely </li></ul><ul><ul><li>VX </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Amounts ? </li></ul><ul><li>Availability ? </li></ul>
  18. 21. 1 10 20 100 200 Chlorine Cyanogen Chloride Phosgene Hydrogen Cyanide Mustard Sarin VX 600 RELATIVE LETHALITY IN RELATION TO CHLORINE (RESPIRATORY) 50ppm chlorine are potentially fatal even after short exposure 600x 200x 13x 7x 6x 2x
  19. 22. Source (Intent) <ul><li>Chemical production is overt , intentional release is covert ! </li></ul><ul><li>Plant safety and security </li></ul><ul><li>Transportation safety and security </li></ul><ul><li>Rigorous controls of HAZMAT </li></ul><ul><li>Information policy </li></ul><ul><li>Preparedness of First Responders and Public Health System </li></ul><ul><li>Co-ordination with Security, Intelligence, Police... </li></ul>
  20. 23. Chemical warfare without CW ? “ Gas is insidious. It often causes casualties without any warning. It exerts a tremendous effect on morale, especially in untrained troops. Uncertainty as to when and where gas is present and how it will act is demoralizing even to troops with high discipline. Nothing breaks a soldier’s will to fight so quickly as being gassed, even slightly. His imagination magnifies his real injury 100-fold.” Frederic Brown Chemical Warfare: A Study in Restraints . Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press; 1968
  21. 24. Fatalities Injuries Atropine overdose Anxiety 2 224 230 544 18 January - 28 February 1991 Iraqi SCUD attacks on Israel
  22. 25. Fatalities Hospitalized Ambulant “ Non-Casualties” 4500 1000 12 200 20 March 1995
  23. 27. Typical Contents of a National Preparedness Plan <ul><li>A policy statement </li></ul><ul><li>Legislative authority </li></ul><ul><li>Objectives and Conditions </li></ul><ul><li>Assessment of the community disaster risks </li></ul><ul><li>Disaster scenarios </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Based on past experiences and present risks </li></ul></ul>
  24. 28. Typical Contents of a National Preparedness Plan <ul><li>Roles and relationship within the government levels </li></ul><ul><ul><li>National, regional, local and inter-agency </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Organization chart of lines of authority </li></ul><ul><li>List of names, adresses, telephone and fax numbers, email adresses of all relevant agencies and their heads and deputies </li></ul>
  25. 29. Typical Contents of a National Preparedness Plan <ul><li>Operations of warning systems </li></ul><ul><li>Preparedness preparations </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Agencies roles </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Emergency evacuation procedures </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Search and rescue </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Shelters </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Medical facilities etc., etc. </li></ul></ul>
  26. 30. Typical Contents of a National Preparedness Plan <ul><li>Communications arrangements and telecommunications equipment and procedures </li></ul><ul><li>Public information programme </li></ul><ul><li>Recovery and reconstruction resources and mechanisms </li></ul><ul><li>Disaster assessment plan </li></ul>
  27. 31. <ul><li>Agreements and linkages with other regions, countries and international organisations </li></ul><ul><li>Testing and evaluation of the plan </li></ul><ul><li>Revision and distribution of the plan </li></ul><ul><li>Source: UN Disaster Management Training Programme </li></ul>Typical Contents of a National Preparedness Plan
  28. 32. Conclusions <ul><li>There are differences in deliberate and accidental release </li></ul><ul><li>The practical differences for prevention and response are only minor, however, the political impact is far more severe </li></ul><ul><li>Preparedness for accidents is preparedness for malevolent acts </li></ul><ul><li>The broader the coverage, the better the chances for prevention </li></ul><ul><li>National Preparedness and Response Plans need to cover all potential disaster types </li></ul>
  29. 33. Questions ?

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