Warnings social media rev 3


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Warnings social media rev 3

  1. 1. SOCIAL MEDIA ANDPUBLIC WARNINGSdenver UASI COnference on shared strategiesfor homeland securityDenver, Colorado: December 15, 2010<br />1<br />Dennis S. Mileti, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus <br />University of Colorado at Boulder<br />Dennis S. Mileti (December 2010)<br />
  2. 2. BACKGROUND<br />Psychology + Sociology Departments On Campuses For 100 Years:<br />Pretty much have human beings figured out<br />50 Years Public Warnings Research:<br />Solid evidence (350+ scientific publications)<br />But A Gap Exists:<br />Between research evidence & practice<br />Warnings = “Applied Social Science”:<br />Because they try to influence public behavior<br />2<br />Dennis S. Mileti (December 2010)<br />
  3. 3. BASIC QUESTION<br />How Do You Help People In Danger STOP…. HEAR….TAKEProtective Actions….<br />Such As:<br />Vehicle evacuation<br />Pedestrian and/or occupant evacuation<br />Sheltering in place<br />Breathing protection<br />And more<br />3<br />Dennis S. Mileti (December 2010)<br />
  4. 4. FIRST THINGS FIRST<br />Regarding Public Protective Action-Taking In Response To Warnings:<br />Human beings are “HARD WIRED” in a particular way<br />Two Wires You Should Know About:<br />Before we consider substantive topics<br />4<br />Dennis S. Mileti (December 2010)<br />
  5. 5. WIRE ONE<br />Reality For Humans = What People “Think”<br />People “Think” They’re Safe:<br />Perceive personal safety NOT personal risk<br />Prime Public Warning Challenge:<br />“Warnings must help people at risk overcome their natural belief to think they’re safe versus try to guide people to take protective actions that are inconsistent with their perceptions of safety”<br />5<br />Dennis S. Mileti (December 2010)<br />
  6. 6. WIRE TWO<br />Shifting Perceptions (from safety to risk) After Receiving Warning Takes Time<br />Happens Through Social Interaction:<br />1. SEEKING: confirming warning information<br />2. HEARING: the warning multiple times <br />3. MILLING: talking it over with others<br />None Of This Will Ever Change:<br />It’s basic to being human & it’s the way people are<br />6<br />Dennis S. Mileti (December 2010)<br />
  7. 7. PUBLIC WARNINGS<br />“Work best when they take these basic elements <br />of the human character into account vs. ignore <br />them (no matter what you believe or technology <br />you use)”<br />7<br />Dennis S. Mileti (December 2010)<br />
  8. 8. WILL COVER<br />Four Topics:<br />1. Warning system design & preparedness<br />2. Public alerting<br />3. Warning messages<br />4. Public response processes<br />And Some Sub-topics:<br />Knowledge: what’s known in the social sciences<br />Myths: what we know isn’t real<br />Social media: applications & issue<br />8<br />Dennis S. Mileti (December 2010)<br />
  9. 9. WARNING SYSTEM DESIGN<br />9<br />Dennis S. Mileti (December 2010)<br />
  10. 10. ANY WARNING SYSTEM<br /><ul><li>Weaves Together:
  11. 11. Elements:
  12. 12. Technology, authorities & the grass roots
  13. 13. Disciplines:
  14. 14. Physical, social & behavioral sciences & IT
  15. 15. Specializations:
  16. 16. Inter-organizational relations, systems analysis, human factors & social psychology, PIOs
  17. 17. Societal divisions:
  18. 18. Varied government jurisdictions, public & private sectors, organizations & the public
  19. 19. Goal:
  20. 20. Rarely used “highly reliable” complex systems</li></ul>10<br />Dennis S. Mileti (December 2010)<br />
  21. 21. WARNING SYSTEM ELEMENTS<br />Subsystems And Actors:<br />Monitoring: natural, technological, civil environments<br />Detection: scientists, law enforcement<br />Management: politicians, emergency managers<br />Public response: general public, specialized sub-populations (racial/ethnic groups, tribes, special facilities)<br />Linkages Between Them:<br />Observation, communication, interpretation<br />While Public Is Also Warning Itself<br />11<br />Dennis S. Mileti (December 2010)<br />
  22. 22. COMPLEX SYSTEMS HAVE FAILURES<br />Design “Complete” Warning System:<br />Subsystems specified<br />Linkages operational<br />Subsystems & linkages integrated<br />Exogenous factors incorporated in the system<br />Ensure Subsystems & Linkages Work:<br />Appropriate technology<br />Sound system actor behavior<br />PLANNING, TRAINING, EXERCISES ARE NEEDED<br />12<br />Dennis S. Mileti (December 2010)<br />
  23. 23. SPECIALIZED SOCIALMEDIA APPLICATIONS (TO DESIGN “OFFICIAL WARNING SYSTEMS”)<br />Integrate Official Subsystems & Players To Avoid System Failures:<br />To create reliable warning systems among warning system agencies & actors<br />All subsystems & linkages present:<br />All actors are talking to each other<br />All subsystems, linkages, & exogenous factors integrated into the system<br />Linkages don’t break when used<br />13<br />Dennis S. Mileti (December 2010)<br />
  24. 24. WHAT SOCIAL MEDIA COULD CONTRIBUTE TO SYSTEM DESIGN<br />Warning System Preparedness:<br />Dedicated: Social media system for EM<br />Elaborate: all warning systems elements<br />Integrate: subsystems, linkages, and exogenous factors into one system<br />Major Goals:<br />Rarely used system will work when needed<br />Weave together agencies & disciplines from different silos that rarely interact<br />Communication links don’t break when used<br />14<br />Dennis S. Mileti (December 2010)<br />
  25. 25. ALERTING THE PUBLIC<br />15<br />Dennis S. Mileti (December 2010)<br />
  26. 26. ALERTING<br /><ul><li>STOP ongoing life
  27. 27. Get people’s ATTENTION
  28. 28. CAPTURE your audience first, then deliver public warning messages</li></ul>16<br />Dennis S. Mileti (December 2010)<br />
  29. 29. FORMAL ALERTING<br />Get people’s attention, e.g.,<br />Piercing sounds with TV crawlers<br />Wake people up, e.g., <br />Sleeping children, older adults, under the influence<br />Outside devices loose effectiveness if:<br />Windows shut & air/heat is on<br />3 minute sounding 10 decibels over ambient outdoor <br /> siren has a 62% chance of waking someone up<br />Need indoor devices for alert at night:<br />Fast moving community event<br />Fire in a hotel<br />17<br />Dennis S. Mileti (December 2010)<br />
  30. 30. INFORMAL ALERTING<br />Warning Diffusion “Among Those Warned”<br />Always happens, count on it, & use it<br />9/11 Example:<br />Most in country learned about attack in 1 hour<br />Many in towers found out a plane hit from friends/relatives<br />Rule Of Thumb:<br />1st warning received: 1 informal for every 2 formal <br />Rising with social media<br />18<br />Dennis S. Mileti (December 2010)<br />
  31. 31. MYTH: INFORMATION CANBE CONTROLLED <br />Myth:<br />Those with formal warning system roles can control public warning information<br />Reality:<br />They never could….and still can’t<br />There’s always been informal alerting &<br />Informal alerting is rising via social media<br />19<br />Dennis S. Mileti (December 2010)<br />
  32. 32. SOCIAL MEDIA CAN HELP ALERT THE PUBLIC<br />Social Media May Be New But What It Facilitates For Alerting Isn’t:<br />Informal alerting has always been part of public warnings <br />Social Media Has Potential To:<br />Accelerate alerting the public<br />Reach hard to reach sub-populations<br />Direct people to complete warning information<br />20<br />Dennis S. Mileti (December 2010)<br />
  33. 33. WARNING MESSAGES<br />21<br />Dennis S. Mileti (December 2010)<br />
  34. 34. WARNING MESSAGES& PUBLIC RESPONSE<br />How Public Responds To Warnings And Factors That Influence Response:<br />Studied by social scientists over the last half-century<br />100’s of publications exist<br />Much Known About How Messages & Other Factors Influence Public Response:<br />Here’s what 50+ years of research says…..<br />22<br />Dennis S. Mileti (December 2010)<br />
  35. 35. MYTH: PANIC<br />Non-problem:<br />Never occurred after a warning<br />Actual Problem: <br />We didn’t issue a warning so we wouldn’t cause a panic”<br />Panic Occurs When:<br />Spaces are confined<br />Escape routes ARE available, but<br />People think: not enough time for everyone to use them, resulting in<br />People must: “compete to live”<br />Even Then, Panic Is Rare<br />23<br />Dennis S. Mileti (December 2010)<br />
  36. 36. CONCLUSIONS FROM THE RESEARCH: What Matters Most<br /><ul><li>All Factors Aren’t Equal
  37. 37. Some Factors Are REALLY Important:
  38. 38. CONTENT: what the message says:
  39. 39. Especially what actions to take
  40. 40. REPETITION: hearing same warning many times
  41. 41. CUES: seeing things that confirm the message
  42. 42. MILLING: confirming it with others
  43. 43. Other Factors Are LESS Important, e.g.,
  44. 44. Demographics (unless information is poor) </li></ul>24<br />Dennis S. Mileti (December 2010)<br />
  45. 45. AN OBSERVATION FROM ACROSS ALL THE STUDIES<br />Message Factors:<br />Largest impact of all on public response<br />If “High Quality” Message Factors:<br />Influence of other factors decrease<br />Ability to manage public response can be high<br />Example: Nanticoke<br />If “Low Quality” Message Factors:<br />Influence of other factors “increases”<br />Ability to manage public response can be lost<br />Example: Three Mile Island<br />25<br />Dennis S. Mileti (December 2010)<br />
  46. 46. SUMMARY OF AN “EVIDENCE BASED” WARNING <br />MESSAGE IS:<br />1. CLEAR (simply worded)<br />2. SPECIFIC (precise and non-ambiguous)<br />3. ACCURATE (no error)<br />4. CERTAIN (authoritative and confident)<br />5. CONSISTENT (within and between messages)<br />ABOUT:<br />6. WHAT (what to do)<br />7. WHEN (when to do it)<br />8. WHERE (who should & shouldn’t do it)<br />9. WHY (hazard & consequences)<br />10. WHO (who’s giving the message)<br />AND IS CONFIRMED:<br />11. REPEATED frequently<br />12. over MULTIPLE COMMUNICTION CHANNELS<br />26<br />Dennis S. Mileti (December 2010)<br />
  47. 47. MYTH: “KISS”<br /><ul><li>Definition:
  48. 48. “Keep it short/simple stupid”
  49. 49. Myth:
  50. 50. Applies to public warnings
  51. 51. Reality:
  52. 52. Applies to advertising, not warnings
  53. 53. Warned people become “information starved”
  54. 54. If warnings don’t say enough, they’ll find what they want to know someplace else & confusion results</li></ul>27<br />Dennis S. Mileti (December 2010)<br />
  55. 55. MYTH: CRY WOLF<br /><ul><li>Myth:
  56. 56. People don’t respond after false alarms
  57. 57. Reality:
  58. 58. They do (perhaps differently)
  59. 59. False alarms:
  60. 60. Can be productive for future response “if explained”
  61. 61. REAL ISSUE: their cost angers local government
  62. 62. Exception:
  63. 63. People ignore sirens
  64. 64. Especially if sounded frequently, e.g., for siren tests</li></ul>28<br />Dennis S. Mileti (December 2010)<br />
  65. 65. MYTH: SOCIAL MEDIAWARNINGS ARE WRONG <br />Myth:<br />The warnings the public gives to itself are wrong and of lower quality than official warnings<br />Reality:<br />The warnings the public gives to itself are accurate and self-correcting when they are not<br />29<br />Dennis S. Mileti (December 2010)<br />
  66. 66. SOCIAL MEDIA HOLDS PROMISE<br />Social Media Have Potential To Build On What’s Been Learned In Social Sciences:<br />To push the critical public warning response buttons and help generate sound public response<br />The Critical “Buttons”:<br />CONTENT: what the message says:<br />Especially what actions to take<br />REPETITION:hearing same warning many times<br />CUES: seeing things that confirm the message <br />MILLING:confirming it with others<br />30<br />Dennis S. Mileti (December 2010)<br />
  67. 67. BUTTON 1: MILLING<br />PUBLIC ACTION-TAKING: Social media is milling, can facilitate it, and therefore reduce the time spent before taking protective actions if we can provide the key elements of milling<br />SURVEILLANCE: How the public is responding and what they think can be easily assessed and used to repackage subsequent warning messages by official warning providers<br />31<br />Dennis S. Mileti (December 2010)<br />
  68. 68. BUTTON 2: REPITITION<br />PUBLIC ACTION TAKING: Social media fosters repetitive messaging thereby enhancing public protective action taking if designed to exceed “tipping points” on repetitive message curves<br />OFFICIAL WARNING PROVIDERS: Strategic placement of key warning information in social media to be repeated (repeat broadcasters are the most believed)<br />32<br />Dennis S. Mileti (December 2010)<br />
  69. 69. BUTTON 3: CUES<br />PUBLIC ACTION TAKING: Social media can post appropriate cues (the things that motivate others) for people to see and foster the protective actions of others<br />OFFCIAL WARNING PROVIDERS: Strategic placement of protective action-taking, the hazard & more to grow sound public response<br />33<br />Dennis S. Mileti (December 2010)<br />
  70. 70. BUTTON 4: CONTENT<br />PUBLIC ACTION TAKING: Social media provides first hand information content and self-corrects<br />OFFICIAL WARNING PROVIDERS: Social media can be used to effectively point people elsewhere to find complete warning messages (informed by the research record) & correct wrong message content<br />34<br />Dennis S. Mileti (December 2010)<br />
  71. 71. PUBLIC RESPONSE PROCESSES EXAMPLES<br />35<br />Dennis S. Mileti (December 2010)<br />
  72. 72. DIFFUSION<br /><ul><li>Diffusion = Getting The Warning Out:
  73. 73. A social process regardless of technology used
  74. 74. S-shaped diffusion curves
  75. 75. No “SILVER BULLET” Technology:
  76. 76. Different technologies = different effectiveness
  77. 77. USE ALL OF THEM (relying on one won’t work)
  78. 78. Reach sub-populations in different ways:
  79. 79. Using diverse technologies (channels) helps “confirm” the message which facilitates human response
  80. 80. Effectiveness impacted by time of day/night
  81. 81. Social media is not THE answer, it’s ANOTHER answer among many to shorten diffusion time</li></ul>36<br />Dennis S. Mileti (December 2010)<br />
  82. 82. MOBILIZATION<br /><ul><li>Time Between First Warning Received & Starting A Protective Action:
  83. 83. People don’t all act at once
  84. 84. Getting ready delays response
  85. 85. S-shaped mobilization curves
  86. 86. People Delay To:
  87. 87. Locate family & gather possessions
  88. 88. Confirm warning & need to take action
  89. 89. Talk it over with others
  90. 90. A Few People Don’t Respond At All</li></ul>37<br />Dennis S. Mileti (December 2010)<br />
  91. 91. COMPLIANCE<br /><ul><li>Will The Public Do What You Recommend?
  92. 92. Influenced By Information During The Event:
  94. 94. “Public compliance is more the result of the quality & quantity of messages they’re provided during an event than anything else”
  95. 95. Observed To Be:
  96. 96. High in some events, low in other events, and in the middle in others
  97. 97. Social media holds potential to increase appropriate public action-taking by through enhanced diffusion</li></ul>38<br />Dennis S. Mileti (December 2010)<br />
  98. 98. CONCLUSIONS<br />Social Media Is Here To Stay:<br />And providing effective public warning information will NEVER be the same<br />Key Questions Should Be Asked and Answered & These Include…..<br />39<br />Dennis S. Mileti (December 2010)<br />
  99. 99. 1. WARNING SYSTEM DESIGN<br />How Can Social Media Be Used To Build A New Model To:<br />Re-design and grow official public warning and information systems that:<br />Better integrate inter-organizational actors<br />Enhance sub-system linkages<br />Reduce the causes of system failures?<br />40<br />Dennis S. Mileti (December 2010)<br />
  100. 100. 2. CORRECTIVE TARGETTEDPUBLIC MESSAGING<br />How Can Social Media Be Used To:<br />Better monitor and assess public thoughts, actions & inactions during a public warning event<br />To facilitate better ways to issue subsequent official public warning messages based on what people actually are and aren’t doing<br />41<br />Dennis S. Mileti (December 2010)<br />
  101. 101. 3. ACCELERATED PUBLIC ALERTING<br />How Can Social Media Be Used To:<br />Help shorten the time it takes to alert the public<br />Reach hard-to-reach sub-populations<br />Facilitate people’s natural inclination to provide informal notification to people they know<br />Steer people to official and complete warning messages and information<br />42<br />Dennis S. Mileti (December 2010)<br />
  102. 102. 4. ENHANCED PUBLIC PROTECTIVE ACTION-TAKING<br />How Can Social Media Be Used To Upgrade How Official Warning Messages Provide:<br />Enhanced use of key factors found to motivate public protective action-taking including:<br />Message content<br />Repetition<br />Observation of response cues<br />Milling<br />43<br />Dennis S. Mileti (December 2010)<br />
  103. 103. 5. PHASE-IN<br />Some Subpopulations Use Social Media & Audience Share Will Grow:<br />What’s the most appropriate social media phase-in for public alerting and warning message delivery<br />And Social Media Is Rapidly Changing:<br />How can rapid change in the technology and how it is used be accommodated<br />44<br />Dennis S. Mileti (December 2010)<br />
  104. 104. MY VIEW OF SOCIAL MEDIA & PUBLIC WARNING<br /> “Social media isn’t a problem for public warnings, its a solution to many of the problems that have plagued public warnings for decades, but reaping those benefits requires a shift in the thinking”<br />45<br />Dennis S. Mileti (December 2010)<br />
  105. 105. A FINAL WORD<br />Warning Practices in America:<br />Don’t use much of what’s been learned about warnings into account<br />Without steps to seize social media warning opportunities, the nation will fall even further behind<br />46<br />Dennis S. Mileti (December 2010)<br />
  106. 106. QUESTIONS?<br /> dennis.mileti@colorado.edu<br /> 303-520-3400<br />47<br />Dennis S. Mileti (December 2010)<br />