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Differenze e complementarietà all’interno del Mediterraneo

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Differenze e complementarietà all’interno del Mediterraneo, Luca Forte – Analista SRM

Relazione di Luca Forte alla Presentazione del Rapporto sulle economie del Mediterraneo, Edizione 2018 del CNR-ISSM (REM18).

Università degli Studi di Salerno, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Statistiche (DISES)15 maggio 2019



Published in: Economy & Finance
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Differenze e complementarietà all’interno del Mediterraneo

  1. 1. Rapporto sulle economie del Mediterraneo CNR-ISSM, 2018 Differenze e complementarietà all’interno del Mediterraneo Luca Forte – Analista SRM
  2. 2. Breve Agenda: -La nuova centralità del Mediterraneo -Differenze e complementarietà all’interno del Mediterraneo (Rapporto CNR-ISSM 2018)
  3. 3. La nuova centralità del Mediterraneo (1) Nuova centralità del Mediterraneo legata a doppio filo con il progressivo spostamento della manifattura mondiale verso Oriente
  4. 4. post WWII Commercio Globale con USA al centro: -Flussi commerciali via Atlantico (Europa) -Flussi commerciali via Pacifico (Giappone) La nuova centralità del Mediterraneo (2)
  5. 5. post 2001 Commercio Globale con CINA al centro: -Flussi commerciali via Suez-Med (Europa) -Flussi commerciali via Pacifico (Stati Uniti) La nuova centralità del Mediterraneo (3)
  6. 6. post 2019 -Quale futuro per il Mediterraneo? -Quale futuro per i fattori che ne hanno determinato la nuova centralità? -Nuova VIA DELLA SETA -Sviluppo dell’Africa (?) per mano cinese (?)
  7. 7. Nuova VIA DELLA SETA (Belt and Road Initiative - 2013)
  8. 8. Nuova VIA DELLA SETA (Belt and Road Initiative - 2013)
  9. 9. OECD: Factors Shaping the Future of World Trade Demografic Changes: via (i) Impact on comparative advantages and (ii) Effects on Import demand. Investment in Physical Infrastructures: can facilitate the integration of new players in international supply chains. Energy: the Shale Gas revolution will make North America energy sufficient. More widespread Technological Progress compared to past times: can enable countries to move up the value chain: Countries representing 20 per cent of the world’s total population accounted for about 70 per cent of research and development (R&D) expenditure in 1999, but only about 40 per cent in 2010
  10. 10. Factors Shaping the Future of World Trade (OECD)… …What Can Be Expected in the Mediterranean (1) Demografic Changes Fast growing population in South Med (+85 million people in the next 20 years) As soon as political turmoil in the South Med is overcome, bilateral trade between the two shores of the Mediterranean would possibly grow as much as in the 2001-2008 period.
  11. 11. Factors Shaping the Future of World Trade (OECD)… …What Can Be Expected in the Mediterranean (2) Investment in Physical Infrastructures Investment in Port Infrastructures is the key goal for most of the South Med Countries. Morocco, Egypt, Israel and Turkey are one step ahead on this path. Tunisia and Algeria are planning to build up maritime transport by investing in deep water ports. These transportation infrastructures would strengthen commercial ties between the two shores of the Mediterranean 8.3 m by 2020 4.1 m 2.8 m 6.5 m 4.0 m 6.0 m Main operating Ports New Projects
  12. 12. Factors Shaping the Future of World Trade (OECD)… …What Can Be Expected in the Mediterranean (3) Energy: North America will be energy sufficient thanks to shale gas. As for Europe… …at present, there’s no shale gas production in Europe: among European leading countries Italy has not commercially exploitable reserves, France has introduced a ban and Germany has suspended operations. European Countries are to import energy product (Oil and Natural Gas) from abroad Algeria is the 10th country worldwide in terms of natural Gas proven reserves, second in Africa just after Nigeria. Libya ranks 9th for Oil proven reserves, first country in the African continent.
  13. 13. Complementarities between the two shores of the Mediterranean Basin Population: steady population in the North vs. growing population in the South high education + old population in the North vs. low education + young population in the South. Technology: high tech in the North vs. massive labour force in the South. Energy: oil/gas consumers in the North vs. oil/gas producers in the South. Infrastructures: toward a common development model: Port efficiency + Inland Logistic and Industrial facilities COMPLEMENTARITIES MORE INTEGRATION ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
  14. 14. Differenze e complementarietà all’interno del Mediterraneo (Rapporto CNR-ISSM sulle economie del Mediterraneo, edizione 2018). A questo punto entriamo nel dettaglio di quest’area, analizzando le differenze in termini di reddito tra paesi. • I “tre mediterranei” • Differenze di reddito e percorso di convergenza • Contributo IDE al processo di convergenza • Convergenza nelle strutture produttive • Commercio estero dei “tre mediterranei” • Andamento bilancia commerciale “manifatturiera” Differenze e complementarietà all’interno del Mediterraneo Rapporto CNR-ISSM 2018 (1)
  15. 15. Differenze di reddito e percorso di convergenza (1) Differenze e complementarietà all’interno del Mediterraneo Rapporto CNR-ISSM 2018 (1) Pil in $ a PPP
  16. 16. Differenze di reddito e percorso di convergenza (2) Differenze e complementarietà all’interno del Mediterraneo Rapporto CNR-ISSM 2018 (2) Pil pro-capite in $ a PPP (Numeri Indice 1996=100) Pil pro-capite in $ a PPP, (tasso di crescita medio 1996- 2016, %)
  17. 17. Contributo IDE al processo di convergenza Differenze e complementarietà all’interno del Mediterraneo Rapporto CNR-ISSM 2018 (2) IDE: trend 1996-2016 (miliardi di $ e incidenza dei tre Med) IDE: incidenza dei tre Med sullo stock mondiale
  18. 18. Contributo IDE: convergenza nelle strutture produttive Differenze e complementarietà all’interno del Mediterraneo Rapporto CNR-ISSM 2018 (2) Andamento VA tre componenti del secondario
  19. 19. Commercio estero dei tre mediterranei Differenze e complementarietà all’interno del Mediterraneo Rapporto CNR-ISSM 2018 (2) 13,12% 8,95% 0,22% 0,33% 0,20% 0,22% 0,24% 0,26% 0,28% 0,30% 0,32% 0,34% 0,36% 0,38% 0,40% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% EURO MED (ASSE SX) EAST MED (ASSE DX)
  20. 20. Andamento bilancia commerciale manifatturiera Differenze e complementarietà all’interno del Mediterraneo Rapporto CNR-ISSM 2018 (2) -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 EURO MED EAST MED SOUTH MED
  21. 21. Conclusioni • IDE hanno favorito il processo di convergenza contribuendo a trasformare le strutture produttive dei paesi Sud Med inspessendo il tessuto manifatturiero. • Effetto più evidente: la crescita del commercio estero di questi paesi cui si è accompagnato il miglioramento della bilancia commerciale manifatturiera (ma non per l’East Med) Indicazioni di policy • Attrarre investimenti a più alto valore aggiunto • Investire in istruzione e formazione • Diversificazione economica rispetto al petrolio (non più strategico) • Crescita dei consumi interni indirizzati verso produzioni in un circolo virtuoso che spezzi la dipendenza dagli IDE Differenze e complementarietà all’interno del Mediterraneo Rapporto CNR-ISSM 2018 (2)

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