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INTEREST RATESRisk Management with Deliverable Swap FuturesDECEMBER 3, 2012John W. Labuszewski              Michael Kamrad...
Volatile conditions in the capital market have proven      2-, 5-, 10- and 30-year term swaps with a notionalquite challen...
half of 1/32nd or $15.625 per contract. The tick size     convention. 2 They are denominated in U.S. dollarsfor the 2-year...
Similarly, one may calculate the value of the                                                                             ...
swap (=-$1,344/$100,000). Thus, the contract may          Duration is a concept that was originated by thebe quoted as 98-...
greek letter delta or ∆ to denote the concept of a                      Hedging a Spot OTC Swap – DSFs are exchange-change...
that end, one readily may deploy the hedge ratio                 nonetheless simulate a generally successful hedgingcalcul...
$9,180                  $99.21             92.53                        93                                     downgraded ...
Further, this 10-year DSF vs. 10-year Treasury                                                                futures spre...
Deliverable Swap Futures (DSF) Specifications                                   A $100,000 notional face value Interest Ra...
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Hedging Tools for OTC Swap, Cash Treasury Portfolios


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As global investors and traders face ongoing turbulence over four years after the financial crisis began, CME Group's Deliverable Interest Rate Swap Futures, launched December 3, offer a versatile new risk management tool that can be deployed in a variety of practical applications.

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Hedging Tools for OTC Swap, Cash Treasury Portfolios

  1. 1. INTEREST RATESRisk Management with Deliverable Swap FuturesDECEMBER 3, 2012John W. Labuszewski Michael Kamradt Matthew GierkeManaging Director Executive Director DirectorResearch & Product Development Interest Rate Products Interest Rate Products312-466-7469 312-466-7473
  2. 2. Volatile conditions in the capital market have proven 2-, 5-, 10- and 30-year term swaps with a notionalquite challenging for asset managers in recent value of $100,000. Contracts will further be listed inyears. We continue to deal with the fallout of the each tenure that are associated with a specific fixedsubprime mortgage crisis that has witnessed the rate or coupon that approximates current marketfailure of several venerable financial services firms rates, e.g., 0.5%, 1.0%, 1.5%, 2.0%, etc.and compelled the Fed to push both short- and long-term interest rates to historic lows. DSFs are listed for expiration on a quarterly basis concluding on the Monday preceding the 3rdThroughout this period of turbulence, CME Group Wednesday of the contract months of March, June,has continued to offer risk management solutions for September and December. This corresponds withinvestors and asset managers. The Dodd Frank the normal expiration cycle of CME Eurodollarfinancial reform legislation has been a significant futures contracts.driving force in the OTC swap markets, calling forgreater transparency and financial sureties. Swap Rates 7%Deliverable USD Interest Rate Swap Futures (DSF)answers that call and represents an important new 6%addition to CME’s product line of risk management 5%tools. 4%DSF contracts are intended to provide a liquid 3%means of managing rate exposure, offering the 2%opportunity to trade actual interest rate swaps on a 1%forward basis with the financial protectionsattendant to a standard futures contract. Unlike 0% Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12previously listed cash-settled interest rate swapfutures, DSF contracts provide for the delivery of“plain-vanilla” interest rate swaps (“IRS” or “swaps”) 2-Yr Swap 5-Yr Swapcarried by the CME Clearing House. 10-Yr Swap 30-Yr SwapAs such, DSFs blend the advantages of trading both DSF contracts are quoted as 100% of par plus thefutures and over-the-counter (OTC) derivative Non-Par Value (NPV) of the swap to-be-delivered, ininstruments in a consolidated package. These percent of par. Note that the NPV of a swap may beinstruments provide new opportunities for asset positive or negative contingent upon the relationshipmanagers to address the risks attendant to the IRS between prevailing swap rates and the fixed rate ormarkets and other fixed income securities. coupon associated with the swap. Thus, DSF contracts futures may be quoted as either above orThis document is intended to review how DSF below 100% of par, e.g., 101%, 98%, etc. 1contracts are constructed and how they may beapplied to a number of risk management issues. In The minimum allowable price fluctuation or tick sizeparticular, we explore use of DSF contracts to hedge for the 30-year contract equals 1/32nd of 1% of para spot IRS instrument; a cash Treasury security; or $31.25, based on a $100,000 face value contractand, a spread vs. Treasury futures. ($31.25 = 1/32nd of 1% of $100,000). The tick size for 10- and 5-year contracts is established at one-Deliverable Swap Futures – DSF contracts call forthe delivery of an interest rate swap instrument 1through the facilities of the CME Clearing House. This quote convention assures that quotes will be displayed as positive numbers. As an alternative, theThese delivered swaps are structured using very Exchange could have adopted the convention of quotingstandardized or plain-vanilla terms and conditions. the contract simply by reference to the Non-Par Value (NPV) of the underlying swap. This convention might beSpecifically, DSF contracts call for the delivery of an consistent with prevailing OTC market practices but could possibly create confusion or difficulties withIRS denominated in U.S. dollars (USD). Separate quotation or bookkeeping systems that are sometimescontracts will be listed that call for the delivery of a programmed to reject negative numbers as erroneous.1 | Risk Management with Deliverable Swap Futures | December 3, 2012 | © CME GROUP
  3. 3. half of 1/32nd or $15.625 per contract. The tick size convention. 2 They are denominated in U.S. dollarsfor the 2-year contract is one-quarter of 1/32nd or (USD) and administered by the CME Clearing House.$7.8125 per contract. The floating rate associated with the delivered swapUpon delivery of an actual swap in satisfaction of a is tied to the British Banker’s Association (BBA)maturing contract, an invoice amount is paid from LIBOR fixings. This fixing is a popular benchmarklong to short; or, from short to long, as appropriate. against which myriad interest rate products,This cash adjustment reflects the NPV of the including CME Eurodollar futures, routinely areunderlying swap as reflected in the futures pegged. Because of the significance of the BBAsettlement price on the final trading day of the DSF LIBOR fixing rate, so-called “BBA LIBOR Swaps” arecontract. frequently traded in the over-the-counter (OTC) markets.DSF contracts utilize the convention of referring tothe buyer of Swap futures (or “long”) as the receiver The Exchange will list DSF contracts that call for theof the fixed rate (payer of floating rates) upon delivery of swaps with a fixed rate or coupon. Thesedelivery of the underlying Swap. Likewise, the coupon levels will be established at integralseller (or “short”) is the payer of the fixed rate multiples of 25 basis points to approximate(receiver of floating rates) upon delivery. prevailing swap rates. As market conditions fluctuate over time, the Exchange may list additional Reference Conventions coupons at its discretion. Swap Delivered or E.g., if OTC swaps are trading at 1.42%, the Futures Actual Swap Exchange may list a DSF contract with a coupon of Buyer Fixed Rate Receiver (Long) (Floating Rate Payer) 1.5%. Seller Fixed Rate Payer (Short) (Floating Rate Receiver) Futures Quote Convention – To understand the DSF quote convention, it may be useful to reviewThus, if NPV>0 upon delivery, the long will pay cash the NPV concept. In short, the NPV of an OTC swapto the account of the short. If NPV<0 upon delivery, represents the present value (PV) of the series ofthe short will pay cash to the account of the long. fixed rate payments associated with the hypothetical IRS minus the PV of the floating rate payments.A summary of DSF contract terms and conditionsmay be referenced in the appendix to this Floating rate payments are sometimes estimated bydocument. reference to the shape of the yield curve. CME Eurodollar futures contracts sometimes serve as aDelivered Swap – The Exchange will list separate reasonable estimate for future yield levels insofar asDSF contracts that call for the delivery of 2-, 5-, 10- they are listed some 10 years into the future. Theand 30-year term swap instruments. These swaps marketplace frequently references the Overnightdelivered in satisfaction of an expiring futures Interest Swap (OIS) curve to discount floating andcontract are configured as a swap between quarterly fixed rate payments.floating rate payments vs. semi-annual fixed ratepayments. One may apply some simple algebra to calculate the value of the future stream of fixed rate payments byThe fixed rate payment dates correspond to semi- reference to the fixed coupon associated with theannual anniversaries of the IRS Effective Rate on Swap futures contract, discounted to their PV.Actual/360 day count convention. The floating ratepayment dates correspond to quarterly anniversariesof the IRS Effective rate on a 30/360 day count 2 Swaps that reset on dates corresponding to the dates on which quarterly Eurodollar futures contracts expire are often referred to as a “IMM-dated” swaps. Note that IRS instruments delivered vs. DSF are not IMM-dated swaps. However, the IRS Effective Date or futures Delivery Date does fall on an IMM date.2 | Risk Management with Deliverable Swap Futures | December 3, 2012 | © CME GROUP
  4. 4. Similarly, one may calculate the value of the Mar-13 Two-Year DSF w/ 0.50% Coupon (As of November 27, 2012)estimated future stream of floating rate paymentsdiscounted to their PV as well. A comparison of the Payment Fixed Floating Net Discount Present Date Payment Payment Payment Factor ValuePV of the two payment streams represents the NPV 3/20/13 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 0.999548 $0.00of the swap. 6/20/13 $0.00 $84.10 -$84.10 0.999196 -$84.03 9/20/13 $250.00 $89.01 $160.99 0.998833 $160.80 12/20/13 $0.00 $92.92 -$92.92 0.998441 -$92.78 3/20/14 $250.00 $98.85 $151.15 0.998025 $150.85 6/20/14 $0.00 $106.97 -$106.97 0.997565 -$106.71 9/22/14 $252.78 $118.16 $134.62 0.997009 $134.22 12/22/14 $0.00 $123.98 -$123.98 0.996389 -$123.53 3/20/15 $247.22 $131.15 $116.07 0.995600 $115.56E.g., let’s calculate the NPV of a 2-year IRS with a $154.38coupon of 0.5% as of November 27, 2012. Forthese purposes, we might assume that the floating Source: Bloombergrate payments may be estimated by reference to theBloomberg Eurodollar forward curve. This curve is DSFs are quoted as 100% of par + the Non-Parcalculated based upon term Eurodollar rates Value (NPV) of the swap to-be-delivered. NPV issupplemented by references to rates gleaned from transformed into % of par to facilitate display of theEurodollar futures markets and long-term IRS We discount the net floating vs. fixed ratepayments by reference to the OIS curve. 100% % Forward Curve and OIS Curve E.g., assume that a 2-year DSF contract has a NPV 0.60% of $154.38 as shown in our previous example. This 0.54% 0.49% equates to approximately 5/32nds of 1% of 0.50% 0.42% 0.45% $100,000 (=$154.38/$31.25). Thus, the DSF 0.40% 0.37% 0.40% 0.35% 0.32% contract might be quoted as 100-5/32nds (=100% 0.33% 0.25% + 5/32nds). 0.30% 0.21% 0.18% 0.20% 0.14% 0.17% $154.38 0.14% 0.14% 0.16% 100% $100,000 0.10% 100 5/32 0.00% E.g., assume that a 2-year DSF contract has a NPV 3/1/13 5/1/13 7/1/13 9/1/13 11/1/13 1/1/14 3/1/14 5/1/14 7/1/14 9/1/14 11/1/14 1/1/15 3/1/15 of -$1,344. This equates to approximately negative 1-11/32nds of the $100,000 notional value of the Forward Curve OIS Curve Source: BloombergOur analysis suggests that the PV of the fixed rate to December 2013. By typing in “CTPH3 <Comdty>payments exceeds that of the floating rate payments DES <GO>” one arrives at a descriptive landing page for the 2-year DSF. From the descriptive landing pageby $154.38 per $100,000 in face value. This result DES, select “Swap Manager (SWPM)” to view real-timeis intuitive to the extent that the coupon on 2-year implied DSF pricing based on forward staring interestLIBOR-based swaps was trading at 0.42%, and rate swaps. Further details regarding the calculations are accessible from the SWPM page as well including thebelow the DSF coupon of 0.50%, when this analysis interest rate curves references, cash flows, scenariowas conducted. 3 analysis, etc. Bloomberg provides a series of recommended settings but users may override these recommendations in order to deploy their own preferred settings as well. This tool represents a powerful and3 This analysis relied upon Bloomberg’s “Swap Manager” or efficient functionality. Note that this analysis does not “SWPM” functionality. To use this functionality, identify take into account cost of carry considerations. the specific DSF by reference to its ticker. Bloomberg However, carry may generally be rather negligible to the designates 2-, 5-, 10- and 30-year DSF as CTP, CFP, extent that an OTC IRS instrument may generally be CNP and CBP, respectively. Attach a reference to the transacted on a par basis with no explicit up-front month and year to the ticker per standard conventions, payment or cost. In any event, the results of this e.g., H3 currently is a reference to March 2013, M3 a analysis do not necessarily indicate where DSF will trade reference to June 2013, U3 to September 2013 and Z3 but might be considered a general guidance or reference.3 | Risk Management with Deliverable Swap Futures | December 3, 2012 | © CME GROUP
  5. 5. swap (=-$1,344/$100,000). Thus, the contract may Duration is a concept that was originated by thebe quoted as 98-21/32nds (=100% - 1-11/32nds). British actuary Frederick Macauley. Mathematically, it is a reference to the weighted average present $1,344 value of all the cash flows associated with a fixed 100% $100,000 income security, including coupon income as well as 98 21/32 the receipt of the principal or face value upon maturity.Non-Par Payment on Delivery - Upon delivery, aninvoice amount is paid in cash between buyer (fixed E.g., the most recently issued or “on-the-run” 10-rate receiver or floating rate payer) and seller (fixed year Treasury note as of November 27, 2012 wasrate payer or floating rate receiver) of the futures the 1-5/8% security maturing November 15, 2022.contract. This invoice amount or cash adjustment Its duration was 9.158 years. This suggests that ifreflects the NPV of the underlying swap instrument. yields were to advance by 100 basis points (orThis value is identified by reference to the Final “bps”), the price of the security should decline bySettlement Price of the DSF contract on the Final approximately 9.158%.Trading Day. On-the-Run Treasury Notes & BondsE.g., if 2-year DSFs settle at 101-0/32nds on the (November 27, 2012)Final Trading Day, delivery of the underlying swap is BPV (perconsummated by a payment of $1,000 from long Tenor Coupon Maturity Duration million)(fixed rate receiver) to short (fixed rate payer). 2-Year 1/4% 10/31/14 1.916 $192 3-Year 3/8% 11/15/15 2.945 $295E.g., if 2-year DSFs settle at 97-0/32nds on the 5-Year 3/4% 10/31/17 4.824 $485 7-Year 1-1/4% 10/31/19 6.614 $670Final Trading Day, delivery of the underlying swap is 10-Year 1-5/8% 11/15/22 9.158 $915consummated by a payment of $3,000 from short 30-Year 2-3/4% 11/15/42 20.258 $2,012(fixed rate payer in swap) to long (fixed ratereceiver in swap). Source: Bloomberg Basis point value (BPV) is a concept that is closelyLimitation on Participation – Anyone with a related to duration. The BPV measures the expectedproperly established futures account may trade DSF change in the price of a security given a 1 basiscontracts. However, regulations restrict holding of point (0.01%) change in yield. It may be measuredactual interest rate swaps (IRS) to Eligible Contract in dollars and cents based upon a particular faceParticipants (ECPs) as defined in Section 1a(18) of value security, commonly $1 million face value. It isthe Commodity Exchange Act. ECPs may generally sometimes also referred to as the “dollar value of abe thought of as institutional market participants 01” or simply “DV of a 01.”and some high-net worth individuals. E.g., the on-the-run 10-year T-note had a basisThus, only ECPs are permitted to participate in the point value of $915 per $1 million face value unit, asdelivery process of actual swaps. Note further that of January 11, 2012. This implies that if yields wereonly CME designated OTC IRS clearing members to advance by 1 basis point, the price of a $1 millionmay carry delivered swaps with the CME Group face value unit of the security might decline byClearing House. $915.Measuring Risk – DSF contracts may be used to Hedge Ratio – The fundamental objective of acreate or manage exposure to swap or swap- hedge is to balance any loss (profit) in the hedgedcorrelated risks. But there is an old saying – “you market with an equal and opposite profit (loss) incan’t manage what you can’t measure.” Thus, let us futures. Consider the hedge ratio (HR) that allowsconsider how one might measure the risk associated one to balance the change in the value of thewith fixed income securities. One generally instrument to be hedged (∆hedge) with any change inmeasures such risk by reference to duration or its the value of the DSF contract (∆DSF). We use theclose cousin “basis point value” (BPV).4 | Risk Management with Deliverable Swap Futures | December 3, 2012 | © CME GROUP
  6. 6. greek letter delta or ∆ to denote the concept of a Hedging a Spot OTC Swap – DSFs are exchange-change in value. traded futures contracts designed to track the interest rate risk exposures associated with OTC ∆ ∆ interest rate swap instruments. As such, they may readily be deployed to hedge or manage the risksWe solve for the hedge ratio (HR) as follows. associated with a similarly constructed swap; or, a portfolio of swaps, that one may hold or anticipate ∆ ∆ holding in the future.Because the concept of a “change in value” is rather Consider the prospect of hedging an OTC IRSabstract, this equation cannot readily be deployed in instrument with DSF futures. If you are the buyerpractice. But we could readily use notions such as or fixed rate receiver of an IRS instrument, you areduration or BPV to measure changes in value. Thus, exposed to the risk of rising rates. Thus, you mightsubstituting the term BPV for ∆, we arrive at the generally sell DSF futures as a hedging tactic. If youfollowing general formula. are the seller or fixed rate payer of an IRS instrument, you are exposed to the risk of falling rates. Thus, you might generally buy DSF futures as a hedge.The BPV or DV01 of a DSF may be calculated simplyby “shocking” the calculations as illustrated in our Hedging Tacticspricing example above by 1 basis point. I.e.,compare the current NPV with the NPV calculated IRS Instrument DSF Contracts Buyer or Fixed Rate Receiver Sell DSF contractsassuming that yields fluctuate uniformly by 1 basis Seller or Fixed Rate Payer Buy DSF Contractspoint. Unfortunately, the critical terms of the IRS to beE.g., we had previously calculated the NPV of a 2- hedged may not match precisely with the terms ofyear DSF with a 0.50% coupon as of November 27, the DSF in a number of respects. E.g., DSF2012 at $154.38. But assume that rates along both contracts are based upon an Exchange establishedthe forward curve and the OIS curve were to rise coupon while the IRS to be hedged may have beenuniformly by 1 basis point. established at a different coupon. Mar-13 Two-Year DSF w/ 0.50% Coupon Assuming Yields Rise 1 Basis Point Other specific characteristics of the IRS instrument (As of November 27, 2012) may likewise depart from those associated with the standardized DSF including the term, reset dates, Payment Fixed Floating Net Discount Present day count conventions, etc. Perhaps the most Date Payment Payment Payment Factor Value 3/20/13 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 0.999517 $0.00 important of these characteristics is the reference 6/20/13 $0.00 $86.66 -$86.66 0.999139 -$86.58 floating rate. 9/20/13 $250.00 $91.57 $158.43 0.998751 $158.24 12/20/13 $0.00 $95.45 -$95.45 0.998334 -$95.29 3/20/14 $250.00 $101.35 $148.65 0.997893 $148.34 But presuming that the terms are reasonably 6/20/14 $0.00 $109.53 -$109.53 0.997407 -$109.24 similar, in particular, if we assume that the IRS to 9/22/14 $252.78 $120.77 $132.01 0.996825 $131.59 be hedged is based upon the BBA 3-month USD 12/22/14 $0.00 $126.51 -$126.51 0.996180 -$126.02 3/20/15 $247.22 $133.59 $113.63 0.995367 $113.10 LIBOR rate, it is likely that there is sufficient $134.13 correlation to create an effective hedge. TowardsUnder these circumstances, we calculate an NPV of$134.13. Compare the two, w calculate a BPV orDV01 equal to $20.25 (=$154.38-$134.13) or thedifference between the two NPVs. 4 that Bloomberg generally uses the nomenclature of DV01 rather than BPV. We tend to prefer a reference to BPV4 Note that the Bloomberg SWPM page may be accessed to the extent that this concept is generalizable to non- as a ready reference to current BPVs or DV01s. Note dollar denominated fixed income instruments as well.5 | Risk Management with Deliverable Swap Futures | December 3, 2012 | © CME GROUP
  7. 7. that end, one readily may deploy the hedge ratio nonetheless simulate a generally successful hedgingcalculation as shown above. 5 result. 8E.g., consider a hedge of a long $10 million notional Scenario Analysis NPV and (Gain/Loss) on Positionvalue unit of a 1.65% coupon 10-year IRSinstrument with an effective date of November 1, Long $10 Rates Short 96 DSF Net P/L2012. By November 28th, it had a NPV of $46.25 mil IRS Aggregate NPV =per $100,000 notional; or, $4,625 per $10 million NPV = -231,467 +0.25% $1,199 -$1,174notional. 6 It had a BPV of $95.67 per $100,000 P/L = (-$236,092) P/L = (+$234,918)notional or $9,567 per $10 million notional. Aggregate NPV = NPV =$4,625 0.00% $236,117 $0 P/L = ($0) P/L = ($0)A hypothetical Mar-13 10-year DSF with a 2% Aggregate NPV =coupon had a NPV of $2,459.55 and a BPV of $99.21 NPV = $246,915 -0.25% $477,473 +$934 P/L = (+$242,290)per $100,000 notional. This suggests that one P/L = (-$241,356)might sell 96 Ten-year DSF futures to hedge thisrisk. Spreading vs. Cash Treasuries – DSF contracts may likewise be utilized to address the risk $9,567 $99.21 96.43 96 exposures associated with Treasury securities of similar maturities. An appreciation of theNote that the aggregate Basis Point Value (BPV) of relationship between the value of swaps and U.S.96 short DSFs equals $9,524 (=96 x $99.21) which Treasuries may quickly be surmised by an inspectionis comparable to the BPV of the hedged IRS of the yield spreads between IRS instruments andinstrument of $9,567. The aggregate Non Par Value Treasuries of comparable maturities.(NPV) of 96 short DSFs equals $236,117 (=96 x$2,459.55). While the correlations are not perfect, they are nonetheless sufficiently related to warrant possibleWhat might happen if interest rates along the use of DSF contracts to approximate the risksforward and OIS curves were uniformly to rise or fall associated with Treasuries. A BPV HR may be25 basis points within the course of the day? We deployed in this context just as it was in our priormay simulate the results as follows. 7 example.Despite the fact that the terms IRS instrument to be E.g., assume you wish to hedge the risks associatedhedged departs in some ways from that of the IRS with a $10 million face value unit of the 10-year on-to be delivered against the DSF contract, we the-run 1-5/8% Treasury of 2022. This security had a BPV of $918 per million or $9,180 per $10 million face value. Per our previous example, a hypothetical 10-year DSF had a BPV of $99.21 per contract as of November 28, 2012.5 Fixed income instruments, including IRS instruments, may represent varying points along the yield curve in terms of maturity or reset dates. Use of the BPV hedge ratio 8 Note that the change in the NPVs of the IRS instrument implies a presumption that yields might move in parallel and the DSF contracts illustrated in the hedge are not or equally along the curve. This presumption may serve a precisely aligned with the changes as predicted by the hedger well although we note that fixed income traders BPVs. This is due to the effects of “convexity.” As a may very well harbor beliefs about the prospective future rule in the context of non-callable IRS instruments, shape of the yield curve. If one believed that the curve prices decline (advance) as yields advance (decline). would steepen or flatten, this could impact one’s hedging But the price/yield relationship is not linear. Rather, as strategy. yields advance, prices decline at a decelerating rate. As6 For these purposes and as a matter of simplification, we yields decline, prices advance at an accelerating rate. do not consider any accrued interest associated with the Thus, BPVs will increase (decrease) as yields decline OTC IRS instrument. (advance) as a result of this convexity effect. This7 These results are simulated with the aid of Bloomberg’s further implies that one might be best served to monitor Swap Manager (SWPM) functionality. Navigate into the hedge ratio and adjust risk exposures in response to “Scenario” analysis from the SWPM page. fluctuating market conditions and relationships.6 | Risk Management with Deliverable Swap Futures | December 3, 2012 | © CME GROUP
  8. 8. $9,180 $99.21 92.53 93 downgraded the credit rating of U.S. long-term sovereign debt in August 2011. Thus, privateOur analysis suggests that one might sell 93 Ten- and public credit risks implicitly converged toyear DSF contracts to address the risks associated some extent.with that $10 million face value unit of the 10-yearTreasury note. • IRS Structure – When you purchase a Treasury, you generally pay in cash. But IRS instrumentsOne might further trade DSF contracts vs. a spot may be initially be traded at par with no up-frontTreasuries in anticipation of movement in these yield consideration between the counterparties. Thisspreads. To the extent that private credit risks are may serve to reduce credit risk of swaps relativerepresented in the LIBOR rate while public credit to Treasuries.risks are represented in Treasuries, one wouldexpect that Treasury yields would consistently be • Supply & Demand – Pension funds, insuranceless than the implicit yield on an IRS instrument. companies and other investors with long-term liabilities have increasing embraced the conceptClassically one might buy Treasuries and sell private of “liability-driven investment” or LDI. Thiscredit instruments in anticipation of credit episodes strategy calls for investment managers to matchand widening spreads. Or, sell Treasuries and buy the term of their investments with the term ofprivate credit instruments in anticipation of their liabilities. Many of these managers haveimproving credit quality and narrowing spreads. come to rely upon the leverage associated with very long-term IRS instruments as an alternative Credit Conditions BUY Swaps & to long-term Treasuries, pushing the 30-year IRS Improving SELL Treasuries vs. Treasury spread to negative levels. Credit Conditions SELL Swaps & Deteriorating BUY Treasuries Spreading DSF and Treasury Futures – This analysis may be further extended to a spread of DSFHowever, the presumption that private borrowing contracts vs. CME Treasury futures. Once again, wecosts should always exceed public borrowing costs might structure a hedge or a spread by reference towith similar maturities has not held in recent years. the relative BPVs of DSF and Treasury futuresIn particular, we have witnessed the spread between contracts. 930-year swaps and Treasury yields fall to negativelevels. A number of factors have contributed to this The BPV of a Treasury futures contract may becircumstance. identified as the ratio of the BPV of the cheapest-to- deliver (CTD) Treasury security divided by the Swap over Treasury Spreads 0.6% conversion factor (CF) of the CTD security per the following equation. 10 0.4% 0.2% 9 A “forward” BPV of the CTD is sometimes referenced for 0.0% purposes of calculating the BPV of a Treasury futures contract. This means that one might calculate the BPV -0.2% as of the anticipated futures delivery date, holding other terms static. Use of a forward or a current BPV -0.4% will tend to produce nearly equivalent results, particularly as the tenor of the futures contract -0.6% becomes extended. Our examples reference a current Mar-11 May-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-11 Jul-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Nov-12 BPV as a matter of convenience. 10 Treasury note and bond futures permit the delivery of a variety of Treasury securities within a certain maturity 2-Yr Spread 5-Yr Spread window, at the discretion of the short. E.g., the 10- 10-Yr Spread 30-Yr Spread year T-note futures contract permits the delivery of T- notes with a remaining maturity between 6-1/2 to 10 • “Too Big to Fail” Policies - The Fed backstopped years. This includes a rather wide variety of securities with varying coupons and terms until maturity. the banking industry during the subprime Because these securities may be valued at various mortgage crisis while Standard & Poor’s levels, the contract utilized a Conversion Factor (CF)7 | Risk Management with Deliverable Swap Futures | December 3, 2012 | © CME GROUP
  9. 9. Further, this 10-year DSF vs. 10-year Treasury futures spread implies that this spread will be sensitive to movements in the shape of the yieldThus, the appropriate HR may be restated as follows, curve spread to the extent that one is effectivelysubstituting the foregoing quantity for the BPV of the playing the 10-year vs. the 7-year portion of theitem to be hedged. yield curve. If one believed that the yield curve might steepen, this implies that one may sell DSFs and buy Treasury futures. If one believed that the curve might flatten, buy DSFs and sell Treasury futures.E.g., on November 28, 2012, the CTD 10-yearTreasury security vs. Mar-12 Ten-year T-note Yield Curve SELL 10-year DSFs &futures was identified as the 3-3/8% Treasury of Steepening BUY 10-year Treasury futures2019. It had a BPV of $72.90 per $100,000 face Yield Curve BUY 10-year DSFs &value with a CF for delivery vs. the Mar-12 Treasury Flattening SELL 10-year Treasury futuresfutures of 0.8604. Conclusion – DSF contracts represent an $72.90 interesting and versatile new trading and risk- $99.21 0.85 0.8604 management vehicle. The product may be deployed in a variety of practical applications including use asThis suggests that one might hedge or spread 10- a substitute for actual IRS market exposures; ayear DSFs vs. 10-year Treasury futures in a ratio of hedge vs. current or anticipate IRS holdings; a0.85 or 17 DSF contracts for every 20 Treasury hedge or spread vs. cash Treasury securities orfutures. This result is intuitive to the extent that Treasury futures.the CTD Treasury security had a maturity of 2019 orjust 7 years from November, 2012. These products are offered on the CME Group Globex® electronic trading platform and via openThus, 10-year Treasury futures were tracking or outcry. Further, they may be transacted as an EFRPcorrelated most closely with a relatively short- or block trade as well. Once transacted and bookedmaturity security compared with the 10-year term of into the CME Clearing House, DSF contracts offerthe IRS instrument to be delivered in satisfaction of significant capital efficiencies. For example, DSFa 10-year DSF. As a result, one may hedge with contracts are eligible for cross-margining offsets vs.fewer DSF contracts. other CME Group interest rate products. Further, the Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation invoicing system to determine the price paid by long to of 2010 mandates centralized clearing for compensate the short for the delivery of the specific standardized swap contracts including plain-vanilla security. Specifically, the principal invoice amount paid interest rate swaps. Per the legislation, the initial from long to short upon delivery of securities is calculated as a function of the futures price multiplied performance bond or margin associated with futures by the CF. Technically, CFs are calculated as the price must be designed to cover a minimum one-day of the particular security as if they were yielding the liquidation timetable; a minimum five-day liquidation “futures contract standard” of 6%. The system is timetable is mandated for cleared IRS; and, a intended to render equally economic the delivery of any eligible for delivery security. However, the minimum ten-day liquidation timetable for non- mathematics of the CF system is such that a single cleared IRS. Thus, DSF contracts may be traded security tends to stand out as most economic or with an advantageous capital requirement relative to cheapest-to-deliver (CTD) in light of the relationship between the invoice price of the security vs. the current their close cousins in the form of OTC IRS market price of the security. Typically, long duration instruments. securities are CTD when prevailing yields are in excess of the 6% futures market standard; while short duration securities are CTD when prevailing yields are less than 6%. It is important to identify the CTD security because futures will tend to price or track or correlate most closely with the CTD.8 | Risk Management with Deliverable Swap Futures | December 3, 2012 | © CME GROUP
  10. 10. Deliverable Swap Futures (DSF) Specifications A $100,000 notional face value Interest Rate Swap (IRS), cleared by CME Clearing House, Trading Unit with tenors of 2-, 5-, 10- or 30-years, exchanging semiannual fixed interest payments at a rate per annum equal to Contract Fixed Rate for quarterly floating interest rate payments based on 3-month London interbank offered rate. Delivery Months March, June, September or December Contract Established by Exchange at integer multiples of Fixed Rate 25 basis points with 30/360 day count fraction Prices quoted in % of par: 100 points + net present value (NPV) of Quote Convention IRS where NPV is present value of IRS fixed-rate payments minus present value of IRS floating-rate payments as of Delivery Day 2-Year 1/4th of 1/32nd of 1% of $100,000 ($7.8125) Minimum Price 5- and 10-Year ½ of 1/32nd of 1% of $100,000 ($15.625) Increment 30-Year 1/32nd of 1% of $100,000 ($31.25) Trading in expiring futures terminates at 2 pm (CT) on 2nd London Last Trading Day business day before 3rd Wednesday of futures Delivery Month Delivery Day 3rd Wednesday of Delivery Month Fixed Rate Payer is “short” and “makes” delivery Reference Conventions Floating Rate Payer is “long” and “takes” delivery Reference Tenors 2-, 5-, 10- and 30-Year IRS Instruments Notional Amount $100,000 (USD) per futures contract IRS Effective Date 3rd Wednesday of Delivery Month Delivery Standard Termination Date Anniversary of IRS Effective Date at futures Reference Tenor Fixed Pay Dates Semiannually from IRS Effective Date on 30/360 day count Established by Exchange at Fixed Rate integer multiples of 25 basis points Floating Pay Dates Quarterly from IRS Effective Date on Actual/360 day count Floating Rate Reference BBA 3-Month USD LIBOR with no spread or compounding Physical delivery of IRS per Delivery Standard with Clearing Acceptance Date and Clearing Effective Date = 1st Business Day preceding 3rd Wednesday of Delivery Month Invoice Price = IRS Initial Payment Amount, per Final Settlement Price (P) Delivery Method If 100 < P, then IRS Floating Rate Payer pays, and IRS Fixed Rate Payer receives, $1,000 x ( P – 100 ) per contract, rounded to nearest penny If P ≤ 100, then IRS Fixed Rate Payer pays, and IRS Floating Rate Payer receives, $1,000 x ( 100 – P ) per contract, rounded to nearest penny Limited to Eligible Contract Participants (ECPs) per Section 1a(18) of the Commodity Delivery Eligibility Exchange Act and registered with CME by CME IRS Clearing Member as IRS Participant. Trading Hours CME Globex 5:00 pm to 4:00 pm, Sun-Fri and Venue Open Outcry 7:20 am to 2:00 pm, Mon-FriCopyright 2012 CME Group All Rights Reserved. Futures trading is not suitable for all investors, and involves the risk of loss. Futures are aleveraged investment, and because only a percentage of a contract’s value is required to trade, it is possible to lose more than the amount of moneydeposited for a futures position. Therefore, traders should only use funds that they can afford to lose without affecting their lifestyles. And only aportion of those funds should be devoted to any one trade because they cannot expect to profit on every trade. All examples in this brochure arehypothetical situations, used for explanation purposes only, and should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual marketexperience.”Swaps trading is not suitable for all investors, involves the risk of loss and should only be undertaken by investors who are ECPs within the meaning ofsection 1(a)18 of the Commodity Exchange Act. Swaps are a leveraged investment, and because only a percentage of a contract’s value is required totrade, it is possible to lose more than the amount of money deposited for a swaps position. Therefore, traders should only use funds that they canafford to lose without affecting their lifestyles. And only a portion of those funds should be devoted to any one trade because they cannot expect toprofit on every trade.CME Group is a trademark of CME Group Inc. The Globe logo, E-mini, Globex, CME and Chicago Mercantile Exchange are trademarks of ChicagoMercantile Exchange Inc. Chicago Board of Trade is a trademark of the Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc. NYMEX is a trademark of the NewYork Mercantile Exchange, Inc.The information within this document has been compiled by CME Group for general purposes only and has not taken into account the specificsituations of any recipients of the information. CME Group assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions. Additionally, all examples containedherein are hypothetical situations, used for explanation purposes only, and should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual marketexperience. All matters pertaining to rules and specifications herein are made subject to and are superseded by official CME, NYMEX and CBOT rules.Current CME/CBOT/NYMEX rules should be consulted in all cases before taking any action.9 | Risk Management with Deliverable Swap Futures | December 3, 2012 | © CME GROUP