1.
Modelling and Estimation
23/04/2015

2.
Methods

3.
Bayesian Causal Networks

4.
Example: Computerised Physician
Order Entry

5.
Example: Computerised Physician
Order Entry

6.
Nuckols et al.

7.
Example: Weekend Consultants

8.
Expert Elicitation
• What happens when there are no data?
• Can use expert elicitation.
Figure: Example group subjective prior,
from Yao et al. (2012) BMJ Qual Saf. See
also Lilford et al. (2014) BMC Health Serv
Res.

9.
Conclusions