Potential Wheat Area, Production and Productivity in Eastern Nile Basin Countries
Wheat for Food Security in Africa Conference Science and Policy Dialogue about the Future of Wheat in Africa October 8 -12, 2012, United Nation Conference Center, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Potential Wheat Area, Production and Productivity in Eastern Nile Basin Countries Dr. Eltigani E. Bashier Abdelgalil firstname.lastname@example.org University of Gezira, Water Management and Irrigation InstituteIntroductionWheat constitutes a major food crop in Africa, particularly in eastern Nile basincountries (Egypt, Sudan, South Sudan, and Ethiopia), where approximately 110 Main Nilemillion people depend on wheat for their livelihood. Wheat is produced on rough-ly 100000ha in Sudan and Egypt, but there is the potential to cultivate double thecurrent area, once several multipurpose projects are completed.Wheat represents a logical choice in Sudan due to its utilization of land, waterand capital during winter periods and its limited use of labor at times whenlabor requirements in other crops are high. Water shortage is a major con- Abbey/straint to sustaining and increasing the productivity of wheat. Blue NileWheat ProductivityTrials at experimental stations show that the maximum yields of semi-dwarf Baro AkoboMexican wheat varieties sown between end-October and mid-November are Sobat Tana3.57 tons/ha in the Northern region, 2.85 tons/ha in the Gezira and 1.9 tons/ Belesha in New Halfa; when planted between mid-November and mid-December. Average discharges for Eldiem and Reniassance (1920 - 2011) Q Renaissance 620 Q Eldaim S/D MCM Wheat area Ha Production/ MTNov 4376.68 2538.82 1837.86 257302.15 1.29 Climatic criteria, especially temperature, deny largeDec 4011.65 1389.02 2622.64 367172.22 1.84 potentials for wheat to any part of SudanJan 4011.65 836.80 3174.85 444483.11 2.22 45Feb 3655.78 533.11 3122.67 437177.91 2.19 40Mar 4011.65 432.91 3578.74 501027.56 2.51 35 30 25 Mean minimum T 0c 20 Mean maximum Mean daily 15 Renaissance vs ElDaim discharge 10 5 16.00 Q in Milliard Cubic Meter 0 14.00 Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. March 12.00 Q Renaissance 620 10.00 Q Eldaim 8.00 Potential to cultivate Wheat in ENB countries 6.00 Wheat is produced on roughly 100000ha in Sudan and Egypt, 4.00 2.00 but there is the potential to cultivate double the current area, 0.00 once several multipurpose projects are completed. For exam- ple, the Renaissance Dam will provide downstream countries with 3-4 million m3 of water during winter (November - March, wheat growing season) in Sudan. The four countries can utilize this water during winter time to grow wheat in a co- operation manner, by sharing the benefits. This water is Wheat potential area and production in ENBC enough to grow about 450000 hectare which will produce 5 more than 1.5 million ton of wheat. Q Renaissance 620 4.5 Q Eldaim Agriculture in Eastern Nile Basin is both the main use of the 4 land in terms of area and the principal water consuming Q/ Milliard CM 3.5 3 sector. Therefore the adverse effects of climate change are 2.5 2 perceived to be associated with agricultural activities, lead- 1.5 ing to conflicts over the use of resources with other sectors. 1 Agricultural production in the region is expected to change 0.5 0 rapidly due to technological advancements, and social Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar changes. Water demand for irrigation is expected to in- crease in all countries of North Africa and it is important to The message define adaptation strategies that take into account the pos- There is a limited annual amount of water from the Eastern Nile basin, with sible deficit of water for irrigation in the future a very wide potential agricultural land suitable for crop production; this lim- ited resource should be utilized efficiently to maximize the benefits.