Agrometeorological stations
and weather and
climate forecasts

Arturo Corrales Suastegui
Miguel Angel Gonzalez Gonzalez
Ma...
Outline

• National Agrometeorological Network
• Climate Forecast
• Meteorological Forecast (WRF)

• References
National Agrometeorological Network

• Over 1,000 Agrometeorological stations in 29
states in Mexico
• Information stored ...
National Agrometeorological Network
National Agrometeorological Network
Posting:
• Data in real time
 Internet Web site:
http://clima.inifap.gob.mx
• Process...
Climate Forecast
Climate Model:
•

Statistical model

•

Canonical correlation analysis

•

Predictants (11 oceanicatmosph...
Climate Forecast
Climate Outlooks (Precipitation)
Montly Outlook (anomalies)
1

2

3
Climate Forecast
Climate Model – Hindcasts:
•

Point evaluation: same point
forecasted vs same point registered

•

Simula...
Climate Forecast
Climate Model - Hindcast for the Rainy Season in Mexico:
Forecast release

Outlook month

1

2

3

24 Apr...
Meteorological Forecast
WRF model (1 to 5 days forecasts):

•

January 2012:



WRF was implemented in INIFAP in order to...
Meteorological Forecast

WRF-EMS:
• WRF Environmental Modeling System (EMS), developed by NWS
Science Operations Officer (...
Meteorological Forecast

Model Configuration:
Simulation Length
Boundry Update Freq






Forecast period of 120 hours
...
Meteorological Forecast
Evaluation:
• Period: July 2012 through
February 2013
• Evaluation points from the
National Agrome...
Meteorological Forecast
Statistical results of the average of all points
evaluated from July 2012 through February 2013:
V...
Meteorological Forecast
Precipitation. Day 1: ME (Mean Error):
Meteorological Forecast
Tmin. Day 1: ME:
http://clima.inifap.gob.mx
Thanks!

corrales.arturo@inifap.gob.mx
gonzalez.miguelangel@inifap.gob.mx
References

Rozulmalski, R., 2006: WRF Environmental Modeling System User’s Guide. NOAA/NWS SOO
Science and Training Resou...
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Agrometeorological stations and weather and climate forecasts

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Remote sensing –Beyond images
Mexico 14-15 December 2013

The workshop was organized by CIMMYT Global Conservation Agriculture Program (GCAP) and funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF), the Mexican Secretariat of Agriculture, Livestock, Rural Development, Fisheries and Food (SAGARPA), the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), CGIAR Research Program on Maize, the Cereal System Initiative for South Asia (CSISA) and the Sustainable Modernization of the Traditional Agriculture (MasAgro)

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Agrometeorological stations and weather and climate forecasts

  1. 1. Agrometeorological stations and weather and climate forecasts Arturo Corrales Suastegui Miguel Angel Gonzalez Gonzalez Mario P. Narváez Mendoza December 15, 2013
  2. 2. Outline • National Agrometeorological Network • Climate Forecast • Meteorological Forecast (WRF) • References
  3. 3. National Agrometeorological Network • Over 1,000 Agrometeorological stations in 29 states in Mexico • Information stored every 15 minutes of meteorological variables, such as:     Temperature Precipitation Wind speed and direction Global radiation • Data Collected in the Laboratorio Nacional de Modelaje y Sensores Remotos (INIFAP)
  4. 4. National Agrometeorological Network
  5. 5. National Agrometeorological Network Posting: • Data in real time  Internet Web site: http://clima.inifap.gob.mx • Processed Data  Weather and climate maps  Agrometeorological applications (units heat, cold hours, etc.) • Leaflets • Android and IOS apps (1st demo)
  6. 6. Climate Forecast Climate Model: • Statistical model • Canonical correlation analysis • Predictants (11 oceanicatmospheric variables) Predictors (Monthly precipitation and frost days) • 640 weather stations (Monthly historical number of days with temperature <2 °C and Monthly precipitation data, 1961-2008)
  7. 7. Climate Forecast Climate Outlooks (Precipitation) Montly Outlook (anomalies) 1 2 3
  8. 8. Climate Forecast Climate Model – Hindcasts: • Point evaluation: same point forecasted vs same point registered • Simulation of monthly historical forecasts (1961-2008) • Historical and simulated montlhy data transformed to terciles • Tercile simulated vs Tercile registered by contingency table ( Hanssen Kuipers Skill Score) for each weather station
  9. 9. Climate Forecast Climate Model - Hindcast for the Rainy Season in Mexico: Forecast release Outlook month 1 2 3 24 April 2013 0.60 0.45 0.39 24 May 2013 0.44 0.41 0.44 24 Jun 2013 0.41 0.46 0.54 24 July 2013 0.46 0.65 0.51 23 August 2013 0.58 0.57 24 September 2013 0.62 Mean 0.48 Overall Hanssen-Kuipers Skill Score 0.49 0.47 0.48
  10. 10. Meteorological Forecast WRF model (1 to 5 days forecasts): • January 2012:  WRF was implemented in INIFAP in order to support the information needs of forecasts for agricultural regions • December 2012:  Experimental stage runnings and validation process
  11. 11. Meteorological Forecast WRF-EMS: • WRF Environmental Modeling System (EMS), developed by NWS Science Operations Officer (SOO) Science and Training Resource Center (STRC)  http://strc.comet.ucar.edu/index.htm • Incorporates both dynamical cores on a single forecasting model (Rozulmalski, 2006) • The software consists of pre-compiled programs that are easy to install and run. The WRF EMS contains the full physics options available for the ARW and NMM cores (Watson, 2007)
  12. 12. Meteorological Forecast Model Configuration: Simulation Length Boundry Update Freq    Forecast period of 120 hours (5 days) Single domain with a horizontal spatial resolution of 13 km and a vertical structure of 35 levels Initial conditions were obtained from the Global Forecast System (GFS) 120 Hours 03 Hours Dynamics Non-Hydrostatic Cumulus Scheme Betts-Miller-Janjic Microphysics Scheme Milbrandt-Yau PBL Scheme Mellor-Yamada-Janjic Land Surface Scheme Noah 4-Layer LSM Surface Layer Physics Monin-Obukhov (Janjic) Long Wave Radiation RRTM Short Wave Radiation Dudhia Scheme
  13. 13. Meteorological Forecast Evaluation: • Period: July 2012 through February 2013 • Evaluation points from the National Agrometeorological Network • Selected stations within a radius of 6 km respect to its closest point of the grid. • 386 stations selected to validate the WRF model • It was assumed that the grid points and stations were found at the same altitude above sea level
  14. 14. Meteorological Forecast Statistical results of the average of all points evaluated from July 2012 through February 2013: Variable analyzed Simulation MAE (mm) ME (mm) RMSE (mm) day 1 2.26 2 2.32 Precipitation 3 2.44 4 2.47 5 2.61 Simulation MAE ( C) day 1 2.81 2 2.75 Temperature 3 2.69 4 2.68 5 2.71 CC -0.17 -0.11 -0.05 -0.06 0.05 6.25 6.41 6.76 6.82 7.21 0.35 0.34 0.29 0.28 0.23 ME ( C) RMSE ( C) CC 1.68 1.61 1.45 1.4 1.35 3.41 3.36 3.31 3.3 3.35 0.76 0.74 0.73 0.72 0.72
  15. 15. Meteorological Forecast Precipitation. Day 1: ME (Mean Error):
  16. 16. Meteorological Forecast Tmin. Day 1: ME:
  17. 17. http://clima.inifap.gob.mx
  18. 18. Thanks! corrales.arturo@inifap.gob.mx gonzalez.miguelangel@inifap.gob.mx
  19. 19. References Rozulmalski, R., 2006: WRF Environmental Modeling System User’s Guide. NOAA/NWS SOO Science and Training Resource Coordinator Forecast Decision Training Branch, 89 pp. [Available from COMET/UCAR, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO, 80307-3000] Watson, L. R. 2007. Weather Research and Forecasting Model Sensitivity Comparisons for Warm Season Convective Initiation. NASA Contractor Report, NASA/CR-2007–214734, 43 pp Corrales-Suastegui, A., González-Jasso, L.A., Narváez-Mendoza, M.P., González-González, M.A., Osuna-Ceja, E.S., Ruíz-Álvarez, O. y Maciel-Pérez, L.H. 2013. Generación y evaluación estadística del pronóstico de lluvia a cinco días. Folleto Técnico No. 53. Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Forestales, Agrícolas y Pecuarias. Centro de Investigación Regional Norte Centro, Campo Experimental Pabellón. Pabellón de Arteaga, Ags. México. 23p. ISBN: 978-607-37-0227-0 Gonzalez-González, M., Ramos-Gonzalez, J.L., Baez-González, A. D. 2009. Validation of a forecasting method for monthly rainfall in Mexico. Universidad y Ciencia, 25(2):187-192

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