Regional perspective - North Africa: production, constraints, market, future


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Presentation by Dr. Abdelkader Benbelkacem (INRA, Algeria) at Wheat for Food Security in Africa conference, Oct 8, 2012, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

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Regional perspective - North Africa: production, constraints, market, future

  1. 1. Wheat in Morocco (Bread and durum wheat)• Major crop and staple food in Morocco.• High per capita consumption (200 Kg/p/yr)• Planted on over two million(BW) and one million hectares (DW).• Mainly rainfed and in drought-prone environments• Highly variable precipitation pattern translate into large inter-annualfluctuations.
  2. 2. Production National bread wheat Wheat Production yearly production 50 000 45 000 ranges from 10 to 45 40 000 MT while that of durumProduction (1000 Qx) 35 000 30 000 Breadwheat wheat ranges from 7 to 25 000 Durum wheat 20 000 25 MT. 15 000 10 000 Yields are variable and 5 000 0 range from 0.7 T/ha to 60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 00 04 08 2.2 T/ha.Yields are 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 Years greater in irrigated or favorable areas (superior to 4.5 T/ha).
  3. 3. Most agricultural activities in Algeria are in the north of the country. The dominant crops are annual, and mainly field crops such as cereals, forages, food legumes and potatoes. With 238 million hectares, Algeria is now the largest country in Africa, but only 3.4 percent is arable land, of which less than one-fifth is cultivated (8.6million hectares) or 3.5% of its total area is used for agricultural production. Irrigated cereals cover about 245,000 hectares.Cereal productionOn average, annual cereal production in Algeria is about 3.2milliontons with a range varying from 1.7million tons to 5.25million tons.55% of Algerian farmers are producing cereals. Wheat is on averagefor this last decade 67.1% of all cereal production.
  4. 4. OUTLOOK OF AGRICULTURAL SECTOR • Total land used: 10 millions of ha • Total arable land used in agriculture: 5 millions of ha • Perimeters irrigated: 395000 ha • Number of farmers: 516 000 DGPA Cereals Forage Leguminous Vegetable Fruit trees crops1 500 000 ha 300 000 ha 75 000 ha 145 000 ha 2 145 000 ha Cereals Sector1.5 Million hectares (30% of agricultural land) 800 000 ha Durum Wheat 150 000 ha Bread Wheat 550 000 ha BarleyCereal irrigated area: around 100 000 ha under supplementary and fullirrigation (irrigated wheat yield around 3,7 t/ha).
  5. 5. Main component of the Tunisian Diet (70 % of the Calories and 40% ofthe proteins)- highest consomption rates per capita among the world .Average Wheat Production is around 1.2 million Tons (1.5 million tons2005-2009)Annual Cereal needs estimated 3 million tons (Wheat needsestimated to 1.6 million Tons) 50 to 70 % self sufficiency in Durum Wheat 30% self sufficiency in Bread Wheat Large contribution to animal feed ( barley) Wheat production (million qx) 25 20 15 DW BW 10 Total 5 0 2001 2005 2010 7
  6. 6. LIBYANinety percent of all 1.670.000km² is desert. So 2% only is arable.Wheat and barley covers 234.731 Has. 90% of wheat is fully irrigated. 1400000 1200000 1000000 800000 YEARS Yields are 1.2T/ha rainfed 600000 PROD (Tons) & 3.91 pivot irrigation. 400000 200000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
  7. 7. The Arab Republic of Egypt, Country in northeastern Africa and southwestern Asia, it forms the only land bridge between the two continents. Most of Egypt’s terrain is desert, divided into two unequal parts by the Nile River. The valley and delta of the Nile are the main centers of habitation.Egypt’s area of cultivable land is small but highly fertile. It is located for themost part along the Nile and in the Nile Delta. Yields are high, and almostevery piece of land grows at least two crops a year (about 3,000,000hectares).
  8. 8. Egypt consumes about 14 million tons of wheat annually, but produces only 60 percent of that Average yearly production is 138 thousand metric tons.Irrigation plays a major role in a country the very livelihoodof which depends upon a single river.
  9. 9. MOROCCO Basic constraints• Climatic uncertainty and related biotic andabiotic stresses: High Risk for investments• Small size and fragmentation of holding:technical difficulties hampers modernization ofproduction• The value chain is continuously changing:relations, prices and services, role of the state,world market. etc..
  10. 10. Most of the arable land is situated in semi arid areas where wheat is predominating with 43% of total cereal acreage. Only 4% of this area receives around 500mm of precipitation, all the rest has an amount of rainfall ranging from 350 to 450mm.The yields are low due to several abiotic and biotic stresses.-Scarcity and poor quality of underground water resources,-low and erratic rainfall,-drought recurrence, -high and low temperatures and salinity are the keyconstraints to agricultural production.
  11. 11. Cereal pests (diseases and insects) are also causing a real problem mainly in epidemic situationTechnical constraints such as non respect of technical itinerary,(abusing use of disc harrow, bad seedbed preparation, hand sowing ormisuse of seed drill, use of low quality seed, low application offertilizers and weed control.machinery adjustment, harvest losses are also causing problems.
  12. 12.  Limited areaNo possibility for area expansion Abiotic constraints: Mostly semi arid area Drought ( rainfall amount /distribution) and terminal heat stress are majoryield limiting factors*Biotic Stresses: Diseases (Septoria, Rusts, root rots &nematodes), Insects(Aphids, Hessian Fly, saw fly..), weed resistance to herbicide*Small size of Farms: (low adoption rates of improved technologies)*Low efficiency of extension services*Crop management (sub-optimal use of inputs)*High cost of Inputs
  13. 13. LIBYA*Abiotic stresses (High temperatures, salinity..)*Croping techniques : (low adoption rates ofimproved technologies, low use of inputs)*Lack of suitable varieties with high yieldpotential and good end use quality. 16
  14. 14. Egyptian agriculture is suffering from natural constraints, mainlywater resources and land limitations. Arable land is only 2.6% of totalarea.Several policies: Price, Subsidies, markets, credits, land ownership,water management.Environmental problems (high demography and anarchicurbanization)
  15. 15. The North African countries account for more than 50% exchanges ofdurum wheat in the world.Regional trade considerations:Given the large areas of arable land and relatively smallconsuming population in the US, Canada, Australia and Argentina,it is easy to see why these major exporters have substantialexportable supplies. Importers, however, are more difficult toassess in this way.
  16. 16. Much of the import trade is concentrated in two relatively well definedregions. More than 60% of net wheat trade is destined for either NorthAfrica, the Middle East or Eastern Asia. This has important implicationsfor the type and source of wheat used. Thousand Imports Metric Tons Egypt 6.300 Algeria 3.300 Libya 1.400 Morocco 1.000 Source: USDA Tunisia 900Much of the wheat imported into North Africa and the Middle East is usedfor pan as opposed to oven baked breads. North Africa is also a significantmarket for durum wheat where it is used to produce cous-cous rather thanpasta.
  17. 17. REGIONAL PERSPECTIVES•Develop irrigation (partial, full…) and modernize it.• WUE techniques.• Adoption of new production technologies such asconservation agriculture to help preserve natural and inputresources.• Develop new agronomic packages.• Promote high and stable varieties, resistant to majorpests & with good end use quality.•Use of new biotechnology tools (Marker AssistedSelection, Double Haploid etc…) to accelerate newgermplasm development.
  18. 18. REGIONAL PERSPECTIVES• Increase & insure availability seed prodIuction &delivery.• Strengthening scientific capacity building.• Training young scientists and farmers.• More efforts on extension.• Develop bilateral and regional networks (differentthematics).• Strong government encentives to farmers (inputs,access to credit, leasing machinery…).