Presentation by Dr. Thomas Lumpkin - Director General, CIMMYT, at Wheat for Food Security in Africa conference, Oct 8, 2012, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

1. http://wheat.org

2. Wheat in Africa
A Prospective from CIMMYT
Dr. Thomas Lumpkin
CIMMYT Director General
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
8 October 2012

3. Global Food Security
Borlaug’s 1969 Prophecy
“The seriousness or magnitude of the
world food problem should not be
underestimated. Recent success in
expanding wheat, rice and maize
production in Asian countries offers
the possibility of buying 20-30 years of
time”
N.E. Borlaug, 1969 – A Green Revolution Yields a
Golden Harvest

4. CIMMYT’s Mission…
Sustainably increase
the productivity
of maize and wheat systems
to ensure
global food security
and reduce poverty
Lead Center for WHEAT

5. Global Food Security
Converging Challenges > Food
> Climate Change
< Water
< Petroleum
< Soil Fertility
=
/ > Food
< Biodiversity

6. Global Food Security
Food Prices and Social Unrest
Red dashed vertical lines correspond to beginning dates
of “food riots” and protests associated with overall death
toll reported in parentheses [26–55].

7. Wheat in Africa
Population Increases
UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2008)
Population Division, World Population Prospects.

8. Wheat in Africa
Imports and Rising Demand
 Today Africa pays >$12 billion to import 30
millions tons of wheat
 By 2050, North African wheat imports are
projected to reach 25 million tons, SSA 35
million tons
 By 2050, African countries will spend an >$24
billion for importing 60 million tons of wheat

9. Wheat in Africa
Exports (Import) of Main Cereals (Sub-Saharan Africa)
Based on FAOSTAT Sept 2012

10. Wheat in Africa
Imports and Rising Demand
Source: Weigand, US Wheat Associates, 2011

11. Wheat in Africa
Potential for Increased Wheat Production
Simulated wheat
yield under 100% of
the recommended
levels of fertilizer use
(kg/ha)

12. CGIAR Strategy
The CGIAR Research Program (CRP) on WHEAT
Expected Impact
 An added value of wheat
produced equaling USD 1.3 billion
by 2020.
 An additional USD 8.1 billion in
wheat produced by 2030.
 Enough wheat to feed an
additional 56 million consumers
by 2020.
 Wheat to feed an additional 397
million by 2030.
 Breaking the wheat yield barrier
by 50%.
http://wheat.org

13. CGIAR Strategy
The CGIAR Research Program on WHEAT
Implementers
 CGIAR: CIMMYT, ICARDA, IFPRI,
ILRI, and IRRI, CCAFS, GCP,
HarvestPlus
 85 National Agricultural Research
Institutes
 11 Regional and international
organizations
 69 Universities and advanced
research institutes
 14 Private sector organizations
 14 NGOs and farmer cooperatives
 20 Host countries
http://wheat.org

14. Strategy
WHEAT has Strategic Partnerships
 CAADP – CGIAR Alignment: Greater
connectivity and focus between CAADP
and the CGIAR research programs
(CRPs), to bridge the gap between
African demand for technical support
and CGIAR
 African Development Bank Support:
Support to Agricultural Research for
Development on Strategic Commodities
in Africa (SARD-SC) including wheat.
 Need for alignment is recognized!

15. Wheat Rust – Partnerships with Results
Africa: Critical for Global Rust Control
 Ug99: present in 11
countries
 Stem rust: >80% of
global commercial wheat
cultivars are susceptible
to stem rust
 Stripe rust: Global
epidemics: Losses > $1
billion

16. Wheat Rust – Partnerships with Results
African Wheat Research Influences the Africa - BGRI
2012 – Hidase
 Significant progress by Ogolcho
Kenyan and Ethiopian 2011 – Gambo
breeding programs (post Hoggana
Shorima
Ug99 investments)
Huluka
 Ethiopia (EIAR): 8 rust 2010 – Danda’a
resistant cultivars (Ug99 + Kakaba
Yellow rust) released 2010-12
 Kenya (KARI): 8 rust resistant 2012 – Kenya Tae
cultivars (Ug99 + Stripe rust) Kenya Sunbird
released 2011-12 Kenya Wren
Kenya Korongo
 By 2013, Kenya and Ethiopia Kenya Kingbird
will have enough rust Kenya Hawk12
resistant seed to replace 2011 – Robin
susceptible varieties Eagle 10

17. Wheat Rust – Partnerships with Results
African Wheat Research Influences the World - BGRI
 Two International rust
screening nurseries Njoro, Kenya - Lines evaluated (2005-2012)
– KARI/CIMMYT Njoro,
Kenya (Bread wheat)
– EIAR/CIMMYT Debre
Zeit, Ethiopia (Durum
wheat)
 250,000+ global lines
from 32 countries
screened against stem
rust (Ug99)

18. Capacity Building
Training at CIMMYT (1968-20120
Lutangu Makweti, trainee Wheat
 66 Ethiopian nationals in long- Improvement Course, Obregon, Mexico,
term wheat training 2012
 35 Visiting Scientists from
Ethiopia in the Global Wheat
Program
 381 African scientists trained at
CIMMYT since 1968 (long-term
wheat breeding, agronomy,
pathology, and quality)
 Rust courses in Kenya with
BGRI (2009-2012)
– 45 African scientists trained
– 16 from Ethiopia

21. Conclusion
Key Points
 Significant potential to increase
African wheat production and
reduce dependence on imports
and price fluctuations.
>$12 billion to import 30
millions tons of wheat.
 Wheat production needs
regional cooperation and
strengthened scientific
capacity, seed companies,
milling and processing.
 Joint priorities need to be
established to rapidly make
progress.

22. Africa Wheat
The Big Question