Ensuring food security under a changing climate & the potential of wheat in Africa: Perspectives from CIMMYT
Wheat in Africa A Prospective from CIMMYTDr. Thomas LumpkinCIMMYT Director GeneralAddis Ababa, Ethiopia8 October 2012
Global Food SecurityBorlaug’s 1969 Prophecy “The seriousness or magnitude of the world food problem should not be underestimated. Recent success in expanding wheat, rice and maize production in Asian countries offers the possibility of buying 20-30 years of time” N.E. Borlaug, 1969 – A Green Revolution Yields a Golden Harvest
CIMMYT’s Mission… Sustainably increase the productivity of maize and wheat systems to ensure global food security and reduce poverty Lead Center for WHEAT
Global Food Security Food Prices and Social UnrestRed dashed vertical lines correspond to beginning datesof “food riots” and protests associated with overall deathtoll reported in parentheses [26–55].
Wheat in Africa Population IncreasesUN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2008)Population Division, World Population Prospects.
Wheat in AfricaImports and Rising Demand Today Africa pays >$12 billion to import 30 millions tons of wheat By 2050, North African wheat imports are projected to reach 25 million tons, SSA 35 million tons By 2050, African countries will spend an >$24 billion for importing 60 million tons of wheat
Wheat in Africa Exports (Import) of Main Cereals (Sub-Saharan Africa)Based on FAOSTAT Sept 2012
Wheat in AfricaImports and Rising DemandSource: Weigand, US Wheat Associates, 2011
Wheat in AfricaPotential for Increased Wheat Production Simulated wheat yield under 100% of the recommended levels of fertilizer use (kg/ha)
CGIAR StrategyThe CGIAR Research Program (CRP) on WHEAT Expected Impact An added value of wheat produced equaling USD 1.3 billion by 2020. An additional USD 8.1 billion in wheat produced by 2030. Enough wheat to feed an additional 56 million consumers by 2020. Wheat to feed an additional 397 million by 2030. Breaking the wheat yield barrier by 50%. http://wheat.org
CGIAR StrategyThe CGIAR Research Program on WHEAT Implementers CGIAR: CIMMYT, ICARDA, IFPRI, ILRI, and IRRI, CCAFS, GCP, HarvestPlus 85 National Agricultural Research Institutes 11 Regional and international organizations 69 Universities and advanced research institutes 14 Private sector organizations 14 NGOs and farmer cooperatives 20 Host countries http://wheat.org
StrategyWHEAT has Strategic Partnerships CAADP – CGIAR Alignment: Greater connectivity and focus between CAADP and the CGIAR research programs (CRPs), to bridge the gap between African demand for technical support and CGIAR African Development Bank Support: Support to Agricultural Research for Development on Strategic Commodities in Africa (SARD-SC) including wheat. Need for alignment is recognized!
Wheat Rust – Partnerships with ResultsAfrica: Critical for Global Rust Control Ug99: present in 11 countries Stem rust: >80% of global commercial wheat cultivars are susceptible to stem rust Stripe rust: Global epidemics: Losses > $1 billion
Wheat Rust – Partnerships with Results African Wheat Research Influences the Africa - BGRI 2012 – Hidase Significant progress by Ogolcho Kenyan and Ethiopian 2011 – Gambo breeding programs (post Hoggana Shorima Ug99 investments) Huluka Ethiopia (EIAR): 8 rust 2010 – Danda’a resistant cultivars (Ug99 + Kakaba Yellow rust) released 2010-12 Kenya (KARI): 8 rust resistant 2012 – Kenya Tae cultivars (Ug99 + Stripe rust) Kenya Sunbird released 2011-12 Kenya Wren Kenya Korongo By 2013, Kenya and Ethiopia Kenya Kingbird will have enough rust Kenya Hawk12 resistant seed to replace 2011 – Robin susceptible varieties Eagle 10
Wheat Rust – Partnerships with ResultsAfrican Wheat Research Influences the World - BGRI Two International rust screening nurseries Njoro, Kenya - Lines evaluated (2005-2012) – KARI/CIMMYT Njoro, Kenya (Bread wheat) – EIAR/CIMMYT Debre Zeit, Ethiopia (Durum wheat) 250,000+ global lines from 32 countries screened against stem rust (Ug99)
Capacity BuildingTraining at CIMMYT (1968-20120 Lutangu Makweti, trainee Wheat 66 Ethiopian nationals in long- Improvement Course, Obregon, Mexico, term wheat training 2012 35 Visiting Scientists from Ethiopia in the Global Wheat Program 381 African scientists trained at CIMMYT since 1968 (long-term wheat breeding, agronomy, pathology, and quality) Rust courses in Kenya with BGRI (2009-2012) – 45 African scientists trained – 16 from Ethiopia
ConclusionKey Points Significant potential to increase African wheat production and reduce dependence on imports and price fluctuations. >$12 billion to import 30 millions tons of wheat. Wheat production needs regional cooperation and strengthened scientific capacity, seed companies, milling and processing. Joint priorities need to be established to rapidly make progress.