What is ASAP doing to counter some of these problems?The first avenue is to upscale some of those practices that have proven to work, and for which we have already developed a certain track record in our programming. For example, agroforestry has shown to be a multiple-win strategy: It not only helps to arrest erosion, it also provides alternative income opportunities, conserves biodiversity, improves the micro-climate and sequesters carbon. In countries of the Sahel, such as Nigeria, Chad and Mali, our climate risk appraisals show rising trends of land degradation and a suitable CCA strategy there is to improve land management through a mix of agroforestry, improved rangeland management and conservation agriculture. Biogas is another example: It provides energy for various uses, such as lighting and cooking, but it also provides organic fertilizer and sequesters carbon. Many of our climate risk appraisals show that there is a substantive gender dimension to the use of traditional biomass energy sources – women spend a lot of time securing energy, often in the form of wood fuel, and this has opportunity costs for a household. With biogas, this time can be re-allocated to other productive uses. Biogas is emerging as a flagship theme in many ASAP-supported initiatives, e.g. in Yemen, Bolivia, Nigeria, and other countries (see handout) Efficient irrigation systems such as drip irrigation enable farmers to harvest high-value, off season crops. This reduces their exposure to price fluctuations, enriches the diet of poor families, and helps families to spread their risk of crop losses. In addition, it provides opportunities for new value chains, such as drip kits and treadle pumps. Again, this is very relevant for drought prone countries in the Sahel, such as northern Nigeria.
Loughborough University – Robert Wilby & Team:GIS-based modeling to evaluate flood and soil erosion risks, opportunities for water harvesting in stone terraces, and potential impacts on crop productivity using: meteorological observations / soil survey data / remotely sensed (precipitation and vegetation) indices / topographic information / geo-statistical techniques. Because of the considerable uncertainty in global/regional climate model projections for Yemen, it was necessary to apply a sensitivity analysisThe approach used: Mapping climate change impacts on smallholder agriculture using GIS modelling approaches (partnership with Loughborough University)The main aim of this assessment was to create spatial estimates of climate hazards such as flash-flooding and soil erosion and potentialopportunities such as water harvesting (by stone terraces), and cropping potential (for sorghum).Maps were based on surface meteorological measurements, estimates of wadi flow, satellite observations of precipitation, soil and vegetation cover, and digital terrain information used in the hazard mapping.The methodology used GIS-based modelling to evaluate flood and soil erosion risks, opportunities for water harvesting in stone terraces, and potential impacts on crop productivity using meteorological observations and soil survey data, remotely sensed (precipitation and vegetation)indices, topographic information, and geo-statistical techniques). Because of the considerable uncertainty in global/regional climate model projections for Yemen, especially for regional rainfall changes, it was necessary to apply a sensitivity analysis as part of the assessment. The analysis used four scenarios for mean annual precipitation: -20%, no change, +20%, and +40%; as well as four scenarios for mean annual temperature: no change, +1°C, +2°C, and +4°C. These sensitivity scenarios cover 90% of uncertainty in the climate model projections for Yemen by the 2050s.PROJECT SUMMARYThe project addresses a range of development challenges including knowledge and skills, financial services, infrastructure,access to input and output markets, women’s empowerment and strengthening their climate resilience in parallel with complementary interventions which create a virtuous cycle and a dynamic rural economy.The programme consists of three complementary and mutually reinforcing technical components in addition to the programme management component. These are: Community empowerment and livelihoods diversification; natural resources management and resilient infrastructure; agriculture development. Within these three components, the specific range of activities to be implemented in each Governorate will depend upon the specificSocio-economic context, agro-ecological conditions and community demand, as captured in Community Action Plans.Climate change models unanimously project that temperatures will increase across Yemen over the next few decades by levels higher than the projected global average. Climate change will drive up the variability of precipitation leading to more frequent and intense rainfall events and more extended droughts. These projected changes are generally expected to aggravate existing problems facing socio-economic development and present additional development challenges to international development agencies including IFAD. In the absence of adequate adaptation measures, extreme rainfall events could turn into devastating flash floods that erode soil, destroy crops, buildings and infrastructure and claim lives of unprepared victims, as happened in Hadramout in 2008. They pose significant risk to the livelihood of rural communities - particularly the poor, women and the marginal groups. Droughts will accentuate the severe water scarcity in Yemen and will have a detrimental impact on agriculture, particularly rain fed agriculture which constitutes the economic mainstay for the majority of the rural population, reducing the area of viable rain fed land.
To increase the utility of the hazard data, the national level hazard analysis was downscaled to the level of village units for each target Governorate. Through overlaying hazard maps with the Village Unit (VU) selection criteria related to population and accessibility a total of 627 Village Units were identified as hotspots for one or all of flash flooding, soil erosion, changes in cropping potential or stone terrace potential. The analysis will help in prioritising the most vulnerable village units for programme support based on confirmation of the analysis using field data and local knowledge.When overlain by data on settlements these maps could ultimately provide a basis for identifying ‘hot spots’ of social vulnerability.
Using Climate Vulnerability Assessment for Shaping Sustainable Landscapes - The Case of Yemen
USING CLIMATE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT FOR
SHAPING SUSTAINABLE LANDSCAPES
The case of YEMEN
Examples of tried and tested adaptation
solutions IFAD is upscaling through ASAP
Better risk analysis and preparedness changes existing practices and adds new ones…
YEMEN RURAL GROWTH PROGRAMME: POTENTIAL
VILLAGE UNITS SELECTED (MULTIPLE RISKS)
YEMEN RURAL GROWTH PROGRAMME: PILOT APPROACH
TO SITE SELECTION (DHAMAR)
Some new adaptation solutions IFAD is
introducing through ASAP