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Understanding what works in forest-based climate change mitigation

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Understanding what works in forest-based climate change mitigation

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Presented by Amy Duchelle of the Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR) at the COP24, Katowice, Poland (6 Dec 2018)

Presented by Amy Duchelle of the Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR) at the COP24, Katowice, Poland (6 Dec 2018)

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Understanding what works in forest-based climate change mitigation

  1. 1. Understanding what works in forest-based climate change mitigation Amy Duchelle UNFCCC COP24 Official Side Event – Katowice, Poland 06 December 2018
  2. 2. FORESTS AS KEY TO CLIMATE SOLUTION • Staying below 1.5oC depends on forest protection, sustainable forest management, and restoration • What have different forest- based mitigation actions achieved so far? • Rigorous impact evaluation needed to promote learning and inform future efforts
  3. 3. Börner et al. 2016. PLOS ONE FOREST CONSERVATION IMPACT OF POLICIES & PROGRAMS
  4. 4. REVIEW OF REDD+ LITERATURE: MANY CASE STUDIES; LITTLE FOCUS ON FOREST OUTCOMES 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 case report case-control study: no confounders considered case-control study: some confounders considered case-control study: pre-matched controls randomized control trial systematic review # studies carbon non-carbon participation Duchelle et al. 2018. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability
  5. 5. IMPACT EVALUATION OF LOCAL REDD+ INITIATIVES Comparison (Control) REDD+ site (Intervention) Before After IMPACT Intervention After Control After Intervention Before Control Before • 6 countries • 22 initiatives • 150 villages • 4,000 households CIFOR’s Global Comparative Study on REDD+: www.cifor.org/gcs
  6. 6. FOREST & LAND USE OUTCOMES The few evaluations of local REDD+ initiatives on forest/land use outcomes show moderately encouraging results Simonet et al. 2018. Transforming REDD+ Book.
  7. 7. SOCIAL & OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL OUTCOMES • Well-being effects small, with mixed sign, but more likely to be positive when incentive components included • Land tenure highlighted as persistent challenge • Studies on biodiversity and adaptation outcomes scarce Duchelle et al. 2018, Sunderlin et al. 2018. Transforming REDD+ Book
  8. 8. Stickler, C.M., A.E. Duchelle, J.P. Ardila, D.C. Nepstad, et al. 2018. The State of Jurisdictional Sustainability. Earth Innovation Institute, San Francisco, USA; CIFOR, Bogor, Indonesia; Governors’ Climate and Forests Task Force Secretariat, Boulder, USA. NEW RESEARCH ON SUBNATIONAL JURISDICTIONAL APPROACHES Side Event: 10th Dec. 16:45-18:15, Narew
  9. 9. TAKE-AWAY MESSAGES • Need for more reliable evidence on impacts of forest-based mitigation • Challenges in evaluating impacts of real-world policies and programs (controls, diversity of interventions, real effects vs. general noise of data, etc.) • Call for scientific upgrade in impact evaluations (“Conservation Impact Evaluation 2.0”)
  10. 10. cifor.org blog.cifor.org ForestsTreesAgroforestry.org THANK YOU www.cifor.org/gcs

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