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Understanding what works in forest-based climate change mitigation

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Presented by Amy Duchelle of the Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR) at the COP24, Katowice, Poland (6 Dec 2018)

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Understanding what works in forest-based climate change mitigation

  1. 1. Understanding what works in forest-based climate change mitigation Amy Duchelle UNFCCC COP24 Official Side Event – Katowice, Poland 06 December 2018
  2. 2. FORESTS AS KEY TO CLIMATE SOLUTION • Staying below 1.5oC depends on forest protection, sustainable forest management, and restoration • What have different forest- based mitigation actions achieved so far? • Rigorous impact evaluation needed to promote learning and inform future efforts
  3. 3. Börner et al. 2016. PLOS ONE FOREST CONSERVATION IMPACT OF POLICIES & PROGRAMS
  4. 4. REVIEW OF REDD+ LITERATURE: MANY CASE STUDIES; LITTLE FOCUS ON FOREST OUTCOMES 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 case report case-control study: no confounders considered case-control study: some confounders considered case-control study: pre-matched controls randomized control trial systematic review # studies carbon non-carbon participation Duchelle et al. 2018. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability
  5. 5. IMPACT EVALUATION OF LOCAL REDD+ INITIATIVES Comparison (Control) REDD+ site (Intervention) Before After IMPACT Intervention After Control After Intervention Before Control Before • 6 countries • 22 initiatives • 150 villages • 4,000 households CIFOR’s Global Comparative Study on REDD+: www.cifor.org/gcs
  6. 6. FOREST & LAND USE OUTCOMES The few evaluations of local REDD+ initiatives on forest/land use outcomes show moderately encouraging results Simonet et al. 2018. Transforming REDD+ Book.
  7. 7. SOCIAL & OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL OUTCOMES • Well-being effects small, with mixed sign, but more likely to be positive when incentive components included • Land tenure highlighted as persistent challenge • Studies on biodiversity and adaptation outcomes scarce Duchelle et al. 2018, Sunderlin et al. 2018. Transforming REDD+ Book
  8. 8. Stickler, C.M., A.E. Duchelle, J.P. Ardila, D.C. Nepstad, et al. 2018. The State of Jurisdictional Sustainability. Earth Innovation Institute, San Francisco, USA; CIFOR, Bogor, Indonesia; Governors’ Climate and Forests Task Force Secretariat, Boulder, USA. NEW RESEARCH ON SUBNATIONAL JURISDICTIONAL APPROACHES Side Event: 10th Dec. 16:45-18:15, Narew
  9. 9. TAKE-AWAY MESSAGES • Need for more reliable evidence on impacts of forest-based mitigation • Challenges in evaluating impacts of real-world policies and programs (controls, diversity of interventions, real effects vs. general noise of data, etc.) • Call for scientific upgrade in impact evaluations (“Conservation Impact Evaluation 2.0”)
  10. 10. cifor.org blog.cifor.org ForestsTreesAgroforestry.org THANK YOU www.cifor.org/gcs

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