SEEING BEYOND CARBON:  OPPORTUNITIES FOR GLOBAL COMPARATIVE        RESEARCH IN DRY FORESTS  Dr A.B (Tony) Cunningham,  Pri...
OVERVIEW•  Background; •  Context & dry forests;  •  Research themes “beyond carbon” •  Conclusions. 
WET TROPICAL FORESTS ARE            THE “POSTER CHILD”…… ….& tropical dry forests a somewhat neglected orphan…. 
IMPACTS OF DRY  FOREST LOSS•  Reduced carbon    storage above &    below ground (total    1Pg C/yr – if half of    miombo ...
LEARNING FROM INDIA: CARBON •  In many African dry forests, we know liLle about     what’s ”in the bank” ‐ parQcularly the...
BACKTO THE FUTURE…. MulVple‐use management in a globalized world… 
Many ecological & taxonomic similariVes:  for example,     Boswellia & Commiphora in India and Africa 
WHAT ARE DRY FORESTS? •  Africa is widely considered to have the largest area of    tropical dry forest (Murphy & Lugo, 19...
SHOULD DRY FOREST DEFINITIONS BE POLITICALLY                               OR ECOLOGICALLY DRIVEN? Scholes, RJ and BH Walk...
Research themes beyond carbon..•    1. Understanding impacts spatially & over time;•    2. Landscape level conservation & ...
1.UNDERSTANDING    IMPACTS  SPATIALLY &   OVER TIME
 WHAT FACTORS AFFECT DRY FORESTS &               WOODLANDS? Mean annual rainfall           Frost     Conversion to  PREDIC...
REPEAT PHOTOGRAPHY AS A TOOL TO            GET “TIME‐DEPTH”                                    Bolago, Ethiopia Nyssen, J ...
1950       REPEAT PHOTOS: POPULATIONS        •  Cost effecVve; 1995   •  Slow, subtle changes visible;        •  Finding hi...
c. 1970          Great opportuniVes for           parVcipatory            methods in photo           interpretaVon that li...
c.1970 Detail of terraced fields from photograph taken by B. Clamagirand, c. 1970 (CL-TIM 0283) showing Ficus tree on gras...
2.LANDSCAPE LEVEL CONSERVATION &   INCENTIVES
Conventional Research Process:“disconnect” between research solution              & outcome    Basic          Strategic   ...
KNOWING BUT NOT DOING…. Ref: Linklater, W. L. 2003. Science and management in a conservaQon crisis:a case study with rhino...
SystemaVc ConservaVon Planning                         ConservaVon                                       Development      ...
Site selecVon is the easy part…      Persistence over a century or more is harder to achieve. Need to think laterally abou...
CREATIVE STRATEGIES     Economic     incenQves                                 Pro‐       vital                           ...
WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM PASTMANAGEMENT “EXPERIMENTS”?
3. LIVELIHOODS,VULNERABILITIES & RESILIENCE
VULNERABILITY & LIVELIHOODS •  Vulnerability = “the state of suscepQbility to harm    from exposure to stresses associated...
MRA (mixed, rain‐fed, livestock & crop) & LGA (livestock only) systems  projected to undergo >20% reducVon in length of gr...
LIVELIHOOD STRATEGIES: BUSHBUCKRIDGE, SOUTH AFRICA   Variable                            %   Own caLle                    ...
4. CITIZEN SCIENCE:   MONITORING & IMPLEMENTATION
 LOCAL KNOWLEDGE IN THE “DRY RUN” FOR            CLIMATE CHANGE                              30
ETHNOECOLOGY & LOCAL WORLDVIEWS    Folk         LandscapesTaxonomy                                     Social institutions...
MONITORING: CAN WE BE MORE                           EFFECTIVE?                                                           ...
HOW RELIABLE IS THE DATA? When entered into a computer database in Windhoek, it gets its own reality…or may not yield anyt...
GETTING SMART: TECHNOLOGYFOR MONITORING& MANAGEMENT•  How can tracking   technology be used for   better impacts?   (resea...
5.    UNDERSTANDING “HIDDEN ECONOMIES” & “DISTANT DRIVERS” 
DAYLIGHT ROBBERY? •  Global scale: illegal logging costs governments US   $10 billion per year in lost revenue (World Bank...
URBANIZATION & FORESTS •  by 2030, 70% of urban dwellers will bein Africa or Asia;•  world wealth & political powerconcent...
PRODUCTS & PREDICTABLE PLACES 
WHERE ARE THE INCENTIVESFOR VILLAGE LEVEL MGMT?                       •  incentives are often low;2010                    ...
6.LOOKING AFTER “THE BANK”:GOVERNANCE & DRY FORESTS
WHO SHOULD LOOK AFTER THE BANK? •  In many African cases, weak capacity of relevant    government insQtuQons to effecQvely ...
POLICY vs. PRACTICE…. Officially sancQoned commercial logging of  a “protected” IUCN “red‐list” species in Namibia 
CORRUPTION & MARKET CHAINS:                    TANZANIA              Timber trade “bribery index” –  a guide to beLer gove...
BUT FOR LOCAL PEOPLE, ANYTHING IS        BETTER THAN NOTHING •  A low cost school build in exchange for illegal logging: M...
LEARNING FROM TANZANIA’S                “RESOURCE MINING”                                                 •  Dry forests l...
OPPORTUNITIES                                                                              FOR                            ...
7.VALUES & VALUE-    ADDING
VALUES, VARIATION,               LIVELIHOODS & LAND-USE•  Dry forests in eastern India (Orissa) net present value of    re...
LINK TO CARING & CREATIVE MARKETS •  CerQficaQon; •  Value‐adding & “the future of music”; •  Traceability & “rules with te...
QUALITY, TRACEABILITY & LIVELIHOODS •   Bar & QR codes are everywhere & on everything in  our urban lives….so is RF techno...
LIVELIHOODS & PRIVATE ENTERPRISE:   risks & returns of “formalizing the            informal sector”•   long history of tra...
ENTERPRISE LESSONS & THE TIME CRUNCH:    Peak  adopQon  “green business & the “adopVon curve”                             ...
8.THE NEED FOR AN  INTEGRATED APPROACH TO  SUSTAINABLE RESOURCE USE
CRUCIAL TO HAVE AN INTEGRATED          PERSPECTIVE                      PLANT USE BY                         PEOPLE       ...
FIRE: THE “MEGA‐HERBIVORE”   NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center ScienQfic VisualizaQon Studio 
SINGLE PRODUCT, SUBTLE CHALLENGES •  Hive “doors” from    Parinari in synergy    with fire locally    threaten a mulQ‐use  ...
CONCLUSIONS
MANY OPPORTUNITIES    FOR GLOBAL   COMPARATIVE     RESEARCH •  Added value from comparisons    & contrasts; •  …but a need...
WHY? •  Survey methods influence our understanding but it    maLers:    –  how & where we collect data;    –  how widely we...
EXAMPLE 1: FOREST INVENTORIES &          COMPARISONS •  Mean annual changes in basal area (13 forests,    different managem...
EXAMPLE 2: THE POVERTY & ENVIRONMENT NETWORK                                      THINKING beyond the canopy 
EXAMPLE 3: ENCOURAGING                       QUANTITATIVE METHODS IN APPLIED                       ETHNOBOTANY Methods fro...
BIOMASS & IMPACTS: LOCAL vs.               TRAINED SCIENTISTS •    Danielsen et al. 2011. At the heart of REDD?: a role fo...
THANK YOU
Seeing Beyond Carbon: Opportunities For Global Comparative Research In Dry Forests
Seeing Beyond Carbon: Opportunities For Global Comparative Research In Dry Forests
Seeing Beyond Carbon: Opportunities For Global Comparative Research In Dry Forests
Seeing Beyond Carbon: Opportunities For Global Comparative Research In Dry Forests
Seeing Beyond Carbon: Opportunities For Global Comparative Research In Dry Forests
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Seeing Beyond Carbon: Opportunities For Global Comparative Research In Dry Forests

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Dry forests provide fodder, fuel, medicines, income and building materials. They also restore soil fertility, sequester carbon, and prevent erosion and desertification. Recently overharvesting of the dry forests in Africa has been gaining attention because of its perceived connection with the food crisis in the Horn of Africa. Former CIFOR Principal Scientist Tony Cunningham believes that much could be learned from comparing and contrasting the dry forests of Africa with better-understood dry forests elsewhere (such as those in India). He explores the opportunities for global comparative dry forest research in this keynote address for the First Conference on Managing Non-Wood Forest Products for Sustained Livelihood, held in Bhopal, India on 17–19 December 2011.

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Seeing Beyond Carbon: Opportunities For Global Comparative Research In Dry Forests

  1. 1. SEEING BEYOND CARBON:  OPPORTUNITIES FOR GLOBAL COMPARATIVE  RESEARCH IN DRY FORESTS  Dr A.B (Tony) Cunningham,  Principal ScienVst, Forests & Livelihoods  First Conference on NWFP for Sustained Livelihood in Bhopal, India, 17–19 December 2011. 
  2. 2. OVERVIEW•  Background; •  Context & dry forests;  •  Research themes “beyond carbon” •  Conclusions. 
  3. 3. WET TROPICAL FORESTS ARE   THE “POSTER CHILD”…… ….& tropical dry forests a somewhat neglected orphan…. 
  4. 4. IMPACTS OF DRY FOREST LOSS•  Reduced carbon  storage above &  below ground (total  1Pg C/yr – if half of  miombo cleared in  30 yrs – 0.2 Pg C/yr)  (Scholes, 1996);  •  Biodiversity loss. 
  5. 5. LEARNING FROM INDIA: CARBON •  In many African dry forests, we know liLle about  what’s ”in the bank” ‐ parQcularly the underground  vaults (ie: below ground biomass) – or interest rates  (producQvity);  •  Basic management plans oSen outdated;  •  Opportunity to learn from “carbon accounQng” &  management in South Asian dry forests (e.g:  Gunimedia et al., 2007) Ref: Gundimeda, H., P. Sukhdev, R. K. Sinha and S. Sanyal. 2007. Natural resource accounQng for Indian states — IllustraQng the case of forest resources. Ecological Economics 61: 635‐649  
  6. 6. BACKTO THE FUTURE…. MulVple‐use management in a globalized world… 
  7. 7. Many ecological & taxonomic similariVes:  for example,  Boswellia & Commiphora in India and Africa 
  8. 8. WHAT ARE DRY FORESTS? •  Africa is widely considered to have the largest area of  tropical dry forest (Murphy & Lugo, 1986); •  Important forest type in South Asia (eg: sal forests); •   but different interpretaQon over what “dry forests” are can  lead to very different conclusions; •  Miles et al (2006) concluded that “more than half of the  forest area (54.2%) is located within South America” (by  leaving out miombo woodland). 
  9. 9. SHOULD DRY FOREST DEFINITIONS BE POLITICALLY   OR ECOLOGICALLY DRIVEN? Scholes, RJ and BH Walker (1993) An African Savanna: Synthesis of the Nylsvley Study. Cambridge University Press.  9
  10. 10. Research themes beyond carbon..•  1. Understanding impacts spatially & over time;•  2. Landscape level conservation & incentives;•  3. Livelihoods, resilience & vulnerabilities;•  4. Citizen science: monitoring & implementation;•  5. Understanding “hidden economies”;•  6. Looking after the bank: governance & dry forests;•  7. Values, value-adding & market integration;•  8. The need for an integrated approach to sustainable resource use.
  11. 11. 1.UNDERSTANDING IMPACTS SPATIALLY & OVER TIME
  12. 12.  WHAT FACTORS AFFECT DRY FORESTS &  WOODLANDS? Mean annual rainfall       Frost Conversion to  PREDICTABLE EFFECTS  (influencing fire) farmland LARGE SCALE IMPACTS   Commercial charcoal &  Elephant impacts (in some ON PREDICTABLE PARTS  fuelwood producVon African protected areas)  OF THE LANDSCAPE &  SPECIES SPECIFIC  Unmanaged  Grazing (caele, goats, wild  PARTICULAR SPECIES?  logging animals) IMPACTS  Loss of large mammals due  to hunVng  Subtle, species specific impacts  (eg: bark removal)
  13. 13. REPEAT PHOTOGRAPHY AS A TOOL TO  GET “TIME‐DEPTH”  Bolago, Ethiopia Nyssen, J et al. 2009. DeserQficaQon? Northern Ethiopia re‐photographed aSer 140 years. Science of the Total Environment 407:2749‐2755. 
  14. 14. 1950 REPEAT PHOTOS: POPULATIONS  •  Cost effecVve; 1995 •  Slow, subtle changes visible;  •  Finding historical photos &  relocaVon can give Vme depth; 2004 •  Scale, measurements & “digital  calipers” 
  15. 15. c. 1970 Great opportuniVes for  parVcipatory   methods in photo  interpretaVon that link  to local knowledge. 2011
  16. 16. c.1970 Detail of terraced fields from photograph taken by B. Clamagirand, c. 1970 (CL-TIM 0283) showing Ficus tree on grassy hill2011 Same hill, with the Ficus tree, taken from a slightly different angle due to trees & houses in the foreground.
  17. 17. 2.LANDSCAPE LEVEL CONSERVATION & INCENTIVES
  18. 18. Conventional Research Process:“disconnect” between research solution & outcome  Basic Strategic Adaptive Research solution Outcome….a key challenge in conservaVon of species & at the landscape level. 
  19. 19. KNOWING BUT NOT DOING…. Ref: Linklater, W. L. 2003. Science and management in a conservaQon crisis:a case study with rhinoceros. ConservaQon Biology 17:968–975 
  20. 20. SystemaVc ConservaVon Planning  ConservaVon  Development   assessment:   of an  IdenQfying species &   implementaVon  spaQal prioriQes for  strategy and acVon  conservaQon acQon   plan  “Assessment‐  planning gap”  The “planning‐acVon” gap  ImplemenVng effecVve conservaVon  Needs stakeholder support: Controls, incenVves &  development strategies  Knight, A.T et al. 2006. An OperaQonal Model for ImplemenQng ConservaQon AcQon. ConservaQon Biology 20: 408–419 
  21. 21. Site selecVon is the easy part…  Persistence over a century or more is harder to achieve. Need to think laterally about threats to evoluVonary, ecological & cultural processes affecVng landscapes, species & geneVc diversity – current and future…..& the role for ethnoecology & natural product enterprises. 
  22. 22. CREATIVE STRATEGIES  Economic  incenQves  Pro‐ vital  conservaQon  PES  subsidies,  taxes & off‐ CERTIFICATION  Land  USE OF ECONOMIC  sets  & BRANDING  acquisiQon &  INCENTIVES  private  conservaQon  CBFM  areas  ICDPs  SFM &  & JFM  producQon  “Fences  & fines”  No  economic  Integrated  Direct  incenQves  conservaQon  DIRECTNESS  conservaQon Ref: Wunder, S. 2006. Are direct payments for environmental services spelling doom for sustainable forest management in the tropics? Ecology  and Society 11(2): 23. [online] URL: h<p://www.ecologyandsociety.org/ vol11/iss2/art23/ 
  23. 23. WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM PASTMANAGEMENT “EXPERIMENTS”?
  24. 24. 3. LIVELIHOODS,VULNERABILITIES & RESILIENCE
  25. 25. VULNERABILITY & LIVELIHOODS •  Vulnerability = “the state of suscepQbility to harm  from exposure to stresses associated with  environmental .... change and from the absence of  capacity to adapt” (Adger 2006) •  Resources available to cope and adapt to shocks and  stresses •  Level of reliance on ecosystem services for  livelihoods   •  Grazing, resource harvesQng, culQvaQon   •  For provisioning, savings, income ,and safety‐net 
  26. 26. MRA (mixed, rain‐fed, livestock & crop) & LGA (livestock only) systems  projected to undergo >20% reducVon in length of growing period by 2050 ‐   Ref: Boko, M., I Niang, A Nyong and C Vogel. 2007. Chapter 9: Africa, IPCC WGII AR4. 
  27. 27. LIVELIHOOD STRATEGIES: BUSHBUCKRIDGE, SOUTH AFRICA  Variable  %  Own caLle  11.3  Earn income from caLle  26.6 (3.0)  Own goats  10.8  Earn income from goats  29.5 (3.1)  Planted crops  96.7  Sold crops  4.0  Use edible wild herbs  96.5  Use firewood  92.5  Use edible wild fruit  53.9  Use edible insects  51.9  Sold natural products  10.8  Ref: Twine & Hunter, in press) 
  28. 28. 4. CITIZEN SCIENCE: MONITORING & IMPLEMENTATION
  29. 29.  LOCAL KNOWLEDGE IN THE “DRY RUN” FOR  CLIMATE CHANGE  30
  30. 30. ETHNOECOLOGY & LOCAL WORLDVIEWS  Folk LandscapesTaxonomy                               Social institutions & resource WORLDVIEW (species, management & tenure  genotypes,chemotypes)  systems
  31. 31. MONITORING: CAN WE BE MORE EFFECTIVE? •  scientist-executed monitoring: –  little impact at the village scale, where many natural resource management decisions are made; –  informed larger decisions (regions, nations & international conventions) …but took 3–9 years to be implemented;Danielsen, F et al. 2010. Environmental monitoring: the scale andspeed of implementation varies according to the degree of peoples •  participatory monitoring:involvement. J Applied Ecology faster to implement, but smaller scale.
  32. 32. HOW RELIABLE IS THE DATA? When entered into a computer database in Windhoek, it gets its own reality…or may not yield anything useful at all.  
  33. 33. GETTING SMART: TECHNOLOGYFOR MONITORING& MANAGEMENT•  How can tracking technology be used for better impacts? (research, “citizen science” & policy in practice)?
  34. 34. 5.   UNDERSTANDING “HIDDEN ECONOMIES” & “DISTANT DRIVERS” 
  35. 35. DAYLIGHT ROBBERY? •  Global scale: illegal logging costs governments US $10 billion per year in lost revenue (World Bank  2002); •  What is the extent of lost revenue in dry forests? •  Why does crime pay? Benefits from illegal acQviQes  oSen exceed costs to local people. 
  36. 36. URBANIZATION & FORESTS •  by 2030, 70% of urban dwellers will bein Africa or Asia;•  world wealth & political powerconcentrated in cities;•  simultaneously, centers of poverty forhundreds of millions.
  37. 37. PRODUCTS & PREDICTABLE PLACES 
  38. 38. WHERE ARE THE INCENTIVESFOR VILLAGE LEVEL MGMT? •  incentives are often low;2010 World Bank, •  woodland tenure is weak; •  but are JFM or PFM workable if incentives increase? Kambewa et al, 2007
  39. 39. 6.LOOKING AFTER “THE BANK”:GOVERNANCE & DRY FORESTS
  40. 40. WHO SHOULD LOOK AFTER THE BANK? •  In many African cases, weak capacity of relevant  government insQtuQons to effecQvely monitor,  manage and control many dry forests & woodlands; •  Under‐development, poverty & widespread  corrupQon; •  Need to deal with contradicQons: adding high value  = increased incenQves to “rob the bank”. 
  41. 41. POLICY vs. PRACTICE…. Officially sancQoned commercial logging of  a “protected” IUCN “red‐list” species in Namibia 
  42. 42. CORRUPTION & MARKET CHAINS:  TANZANIA  Timber trade “bribery index” –  a guide to beLer governance strategies? •  “culture of corrupQon” difficult to deal with; •  different scales of corrupQon, from peLy corrupQon to poliQcal elites; •  Overlapping forms (bribes, kick‐backs, fraud, favouraQsm and patronage) Milledge, S. et al. 2007 Forestry, governance and naVonal development: lessons learned from a logging boom in southern Tanzania. TRAFFIC, Tanzania. 
  43. 43. BUT FOR LOCAL PEOPLE, ANYTHING IS  BETTER THAN NOTHING •  A low cost school build in exchange for illegal logging: Mozambique 
  44. 44. LEARNING FROM TANZANIA’S “RESOURCE MINING” •  Dry forests low market share of  Chinese log imports, but  significant impact  •  Tanzania:     ‐Up to 96% lost royalQes    ‐Loss of $58M annually    ‐1400% increase in value     (’97‐’05)    ‐ExporQng new species     ‐Concealed transacQons  (Milledge 2007) Mismatch in Qmber export & import figures (TZ) 
  45. 45. OPPORTUNITIES FOR OVERLAYING DATA SETS•   supply chains, volumes & governanceAsner et al. 2010.High-resolution forest carbon stocks and emissions in the Amazon. PNAS. www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1004875107
  46. 46. 7.VALUES & VALUE- ADDING
  47. 47. VALUES, VARIATION, LIVELIHOODS & LAND-USE•  Dry forests in eastern India (Orissa) net present value of  revenues from NTFP were US$1016 /ha (coastal DF) & US $ 1348/ha (inland DF); •  PotenQal Qmber revenue was US$ 268 /ha) & much  higher than the returns from alternaQve land uses.  •  Need to develop beLer valuaQon protocols that include  Qmber & non‐Qmber products instead of conversion to  other land‐uses. Mahapatra, A K & Tewari. 2005. Importance of non‐Vmber forest products in the economic valuaVon of dry deciduous forests of India. Forest Policy and Economics 7: 455– 467 
  48. 48. LINK TO CARING & CREATIVE MARKETS •  CerQficaQon; •  Value‐adding & “the future of music”; •  Traceability & “rules with teeth”. 
  49. 49. QUALITY, TRACEABILITY & LIVELIHOODS •   Bar & QR codes are everywhere & on everything in our urban lives….so is RF technology - but underused in linking rural enterprises & “green consumerism”;•  Powerful data collection tool (business & research)
  50. 50. LIVELIHOODS & PRIVATE ENTERPRISE: risks & returns of “formalizing the informal sector”•   long history of trade, but research on successful impacts for “scaling out & up” is an emerging opportunity
  51. 51. ENTERPRISE LESSONS & THE TIME CRUNCH:   Peak  adopQon  “green business & the “adopVon curve”  Year of peak adopVon  •  Wrong products/partners;  Often problems •  Site specificity stops scaling out  in scaling up orNUMBER OF ADOPTERS  •  Donor Qme vs. real Qme scales   scaling out. •  Costs exceed benefits  •  Mismatch: producers vs. buyers   • Poor supply chain mgmt  Time to  •  Equipment for demonstraQon vs.  adoptable results  commercial scale  •  boLlenecks & barriers to trade  0  10 years  TIME
  52. 52. 8.THE NEED FOR AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO SUSTAINABLE RESOURCE USE
  53. 53. CRUCIAL TO HAVE AN INTEGRATED  PERSPECTIVE  PLANT USE BY  PEOPLE  ANIMAL  Social & cultural  POLITICAL & POLICY  IMPACTS ON  TREES  Focal  TIMBER  EXTRACTION  areas &  context  CONTEXT  species  FIRE  GRAZERS 
  54. 54. FIRE: THE “MEGA‐HERBIVORE”  NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center ScienQfic VisualizaQon Studio 
  55. 55. SINGLE PRODUCT, SUBTLE CHALLENGES •  Hive “doors” from  Parinari in synergy  with fire locally  threaten a mulQ‐use  species. 
  56. 56. CONCLUSIONS
  57. 57. MANY OPPORTUNITIES  FOR GLOBAL  COMPARATIVE  RESEARCH •  Added value from comparisons  & contrasts; •  …but a need for common  methods. 
  58. 58. WHY? •  Survey methods influence our understanding but it  maLers:  –  how & where we collect data;  –  how widely we read in research papers  –  how we analyze and interpret data •  One soluQon is a “nested” method, hierarchical, cross‐ disciplinary approach – but this adds cost & requires  high levels of coordinaQon & cooperaQon among  scienQsts; •  3 examples.  
  59. 59. EXAMPLE 1: FOREST INVENTORIES &  COMPARISONS •  Mean annual changes in basal area (13 forests,  different management & ownership regimes) in  Tanzania (Blomley, 2008)…but what about species?  64
  60. 60. EXAMPLE 2: THE POVERTY & ENVIRONMENT NETWORK  THINKING beyond the canopy 
  61. 61. EXAMPLE 3: ENCOURAGING  QUANTITATIVE METHODS IN APPLIED  ETHNOBOTANY Methods from economic geography, social sciences,  ecology & applied ethnobotany 
  62. 62. BIOMASS & IMPACTS: LOCAL vs.  TRAINED SCIENTISTS •  Danielsen et al. 2011. At the heart of REDD?: a role for local people in monitoring forests?  Conserv LeL 4:158–167  
  63. 63. THANK YOU

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