Scenarios building in complex commons


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As one of the most populated tropical forest countries in the world, Indonesia faces huge challenges in balancing development, livelihood improvement of its citizens and conservation of its natural assets. Many stakeholders are not involved in the process. An important step to improve the current situation is to facilitate a more collaborative land use planning and allocation process that benefits all parties.

Through a series of multiple stakeholder workshops over a two-year period, PPA allowed diverse actors and interests to jointly predict and anticipate trajectories of land use change.

CIFOR Scientist Bayuni Shantiko with Nining Liswanti presented on 8 June 2013 for the panel discussion "Spatial planning in Indonesia: Insights from research and action in West Kalimantan and Moluccas Provinces" at the 2013 IASC conference held on Mount Fuji in Japan.

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  • Layout: Title SlideVariation: none
  • Focus on PPA, short introTrend influence land use such as population growth, urbanization, trade (e.g. biofuel investment), globalization  uncertainty of futureGovernance-Overlapping authorities (central vs. district; among sectors), ambiguous regulations/policiesDecision- Top down planning in spatial planning, only few agencies involved  Conflicts over land use: official forestland status vs customary tenure; commoners vs investors; conservationvs developmentStakeholders – central, provincial, district level ; even at village levelPPA as a tool to make change happenLand use in complex common: uncertainty of the futureMultiple layers of governance and decisions in land use as well as involved many stakeholdersThe public and decision makers need to be informed on what could happen in the future to bring about a change
  • Criteria: Expert on aspects relevant to PPA topic, open-minded and willing to share and listen to others
  • Layout: Section HeaderVariation: none
  • Scenario is a combination of variables in different states. States of variable must contrast and mutually exclusiveIncompatible combination were eliminated resulting several possible scenarios. Scenario’ with similar elements can be merged. Similar scenarios can be clustered through an identical process as used for the identification of variables: elimination of redundant scenarios andgrouping of scenarios.Scenario must contrast and mutually exclusive
  • Having alternative of futures at hand, stakeholderswereasked to agree on which scenario ispreferable and wish to achieveit. Then action plan wasdeveloped by stakeholdersduring consultation forum at village and district levelDesirableGovernment, communities and other SHs work togetherAligned vision and policies to achieve ‘society’s welfare’Stakeholders change their current behaviourUndesirableSc. 2  environmental destructionScenario 3&4  recklessness in investment decision: no benefit to community
  • (musrembang+)Actions taken depends on top decision makers commitmentRepeated interactions (workshops and consultations)  time considerationWho pays the cost of participation? Bottom-up and participatory process do not institutionalized in top down system How to institutionalize the process into current government system so government subsidized the process?Repeated interactions (workshops and consultations)  time considerationBottom-up and participatory process do not institutionalized in top down system How so government subsidized the process?formulate and later monitor land use plan based on desirable “idealistic” scenarios – (YL not necessarily making the plan but realistic and achievable scenario. It is not a matter of formulating the plan “avoid too much idealistic scenario and if they happen how to deal with it”? The PPA process may result in scenarios that are too ideal to be implemented and how to deal with it?
  • 1. It gives the opportunity to understand it better, to get more insight about the forces at work and the stakes. 2. PPA for tourism agency and PPA for district regulationIn central seram, PPA will be included inThe type of prospective analysis proposed in the PPA method goes beyondthe elaboration of scenarios. It is a full process where expert participants who are at the same timestakeholders are led to view their environment from a very different perspective. It gives them theopportunity to understand it better, to get more insight about the forces at work and the stakes. Theybecome aware that there is always room for manoeuvre not only to prepare for future changes, butalso to have a say in these changes even on a limited scale. As such, it is a tool for peopleempowerment through the generation and sharing of information, and through the sharing of ideasand knowledge.Note YL: show the interest of PPA and scenario using this prosess, express why this way is better than the otherThe use of PPA tools for different purposes, e.g. community empowerment program, regional planning program, etc. Participatory process allow stakeholders from different background to discuss and negotiate for the future use of the common. The way scenario are made using PPA bring “a notion that participatory process is not only about getting the stakeholders together but also to make change. Qualitative analysis
  • Scenarios building in complex commons

    1. 1. Scenarios building in complexcommons:Challenges, opportunities and lessons learned in engaging multiple stakeholders toimprove land use decisionsBayuni Shantiko & Nining Liswanti
    2. 2. Background Multiple layers of governance andstakeholders High uncertainty for the future incomplex common in developingtropical countries The public and decision makers needto be better informed on what couldhappen in the future
    3. 3. ResearchQuestionWhat process can allow multiple needs of landtaken into account in land use decisionprocess?
    4. 4. Participatory prospectiveanalysis An applied foresightingapproach developed by CIRAD PPA group “experts”: districtgovernment, local community,customary leaders, privatesector, NGOs Develop action plan to beintegrated with regencyplanning
    5. 5. STAKEHOLDERS Local government agenciesand parliament National Park Private sectors Communities Customary leaders Universities and NGO 15 – 20 stakeholders
    6. 6. The 8 steps of PPA
    7. 7. System BoundaryQ: What could be thefuture of land use?Time: 20 yearsGeographic boundary:Kapuas Hulu regencyCentral SeramregencyDefine theboundary of thesystem (Topic)Identify the variablesDefine the variablesAnalyze their mutualinfluences
    8. 8. Variables Economic, social, politic,environment For example:• Customary law• Education• Income
    9. 9. 4. Analysis mutual influence Direct influence variable i to variable j ; Direct influence = 1; No influence = 0 Indirect influence (i k) :i j k
    10. 10. I/D Matrix(Influence/Dependence)50 INTERNAL VARIABLES
    11. 11. Key drivers: Government policy, use oftechnology, customary law and wisdom,mindset, participation, education and skills
    12. 12. Building scenarios process3241
    13. 13. From Scenario to ActionvsSTEPS IN HARMONY PANNING THE GOLD GETTING THE STONEPolicies that favor and compiled together withthe community, enhance public participation inthe planning process to monitoring andsupervisionAccess to education and skills areimprovedPEOPLE MASTER APPROPRIATE ANDENVIRONMENTALLY FRIENDLYTECHNOLOGY.Synergy between customary law andpositive law supports the course ofdevelopmentEDUCATION IS NOT ACCESSIBLE FOR ALLTHE PEOPLEIndigenous peoples have split as a result ofthe weakening of customary law andindigenous knowledgethe stakeholders seek to win personal andgroup interests over the land useConflicts in society escalate triggered by theexclusion of the society in the developmentprocess
    14. 14. Challenge Who pays the cost ofparticipation once ongoing donorassistance is over, especially forfuture monitoring of theimplementation? How to institutionalize theprocess into current governmentsystem? Idealistic vs. realistic scenarios?
    15. 15. Conclusion The PPA process proved successful in bringing together differentstakeholders to view their environment from a very differentperspective. Using PPA and its scenario development, different stakeholdersstarted realizing the need of working together, to collaborate forfurther action to make change affecting their future
    16. 16. Thank youArigato