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Remote sensing, social and economical data to understand agricultural land cover dynamics in eastern Amazonia Taking stock...
Introduction <ul><li>Framework: the AMAZ-ES Project  (Biodiversity of Amazonian Landscape, Socio-economic drivers and Prod...
<ul><li>Location </li></ul><ul><li>State of Para, Brazil </li></ul><ul><li>Community of Palmares II </li></ul><ul><li>Comm...
Objectives & hypotheses <ul><li>Objectives  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>To assess & explain the landscape dynamics over time </l...
<ul><li>Satellite imagery  of years 1986, 1992, 2001 & 2007  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Field survey  (modelling team) to deter...
<ul><li>Socio-economical data  collected at the household-level </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Field survey (sociology team) in 200...
<ul><li>Cadastral map  of Palmares (land register) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>3 Sub-windows  of 17 households  </li></ul></ul><...
Results of classifications Gain in precision & complexity over time 1986 2001 1992 2007
Landscape analysis <ul><li>Composition of agricultural lot in 2007: </li></ul><ul><li>50% forested </li></ul><ul><li>16% f...
Typologie of the farmer’s land use over time Identification of 7 dynamics of land use changes 6. Dynamic of regrowth 4. Dy...
Type 6:  Dynamic of regrowth traducing pasture and bare lands abandon and the progression of multi-stratified plantations ...
Results of the correlation analysis <ul><li>Household features influencing land-use decisions </li></ul><ul><li>Negative c...
<ul><li>Understanding of social, economical & political drivers  and their influence  on land use decisions of smallholder...
THANKS for your attention! <ul><li>For more information: </li></ul><ul><li>Cécile BILLARD </li></ul><ul><li>Msc. Degree in...
Typology of land use changes <ul><li>Determination of 4 main dynamics  </li></ul><ul><li>-Empirical model- </li></ul><ul><...
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Remote sensing, social and economical data to understand agricultural land cover dynamics in eastern Amazonia

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Cécile BILLARD

Presentation for the conference on
Taking stock of smallholders and community forestry
Montpellier France
March 24-26, 2010

Published in: Education
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Remote sensing, social and economical data to understand agricultural land cover dynamics in eastern Amazonia

  1. 1. Remote sensing, social and economical data to understand agricultural land cover dynamics in eastern Amazonia Taking stock of smallholder and community forestry: Where do we go from here? 24 - 26 March 2010, Montpellier, France by Cécile BILLARD Msc. Degree in Forest Ecology and Management University of Freiburg, Germany
  2. 2. Introduction <ul><li>Framework: the AMAZ-ES Project (Biodiversity of Amazonian Landscape, Socio-economic drivers and Production of ecosystem goods and services) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Transdisciplinary project supported by the French National Agency for Research (ANR) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>French-Colombian-Brazilian partners (sociology, economy, agronomy, ecology & modelling) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>2 countries, 6 communities, 300 households </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Amazonian basin VS. Different socio-economical contexts </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Colonisation VS. Demographic pressure </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>How do national & regional policies affect ecosystems ? </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Research issue </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Modelling the interactions between society and the environment </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Developing tools adapted to modelling complex systems </li></ul></ul>
  3. 3. <ul><li>Location </li></ul><ul><li>State of Para, Brazil </li></ul><ul><li>Community of Palmares II </li></ul><ul><li>Community of Landless Rural Workers </li></ul><ul><li>Context of settlement: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Previous fazenda invaded by MST (90’s) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Eldorado dos Carajás massacre in 1996 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Official settlement of 517 families in 1997 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Expropriated land of 15 850 ha </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Context of forest margin colonization </li></ul><ul><li>An equal distribution of land </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Lots of 25ha each (1000 x 250 m) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Small scale & diversified agriculture : crops, pastures, fallows, homegardens </li></ul></ul>Study area
  4. 4. Objectives & hypotheses <ul><li>Objectives </li></ul><ul><ul><li>To assess & explain the landscape dynamics over time </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>To describe the current land cover </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>To quantify agricultural & forest changes </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>To identify these changes at the household-level </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>To test the influence of social and economical factors on land use changes </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Main Hypotheses </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Specific social & economical characteristics of local people influence land use decision at the household-level </li></ul></ul>
  5. 5. <ul><li>Satellite imagery of years 1986, 1992, 2001 & 2007 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Field survey (modelling team) to determine each landscape element in 2007 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Spatio-temporal analysis of land use and land use changes </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Supervised classification of the 4 images to quantify & describe the actual land cover and the land use changes since 1986 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Landscape analysis : typology of the lanscape elements (field & remote sensing) & Model of the dynamic of succession over time </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Typology of land use changes at the household-level (land register) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Grouping farms with similar pattern (PCA & Cluster dendrogram) </li></ul></ul></ul>Material & methods
  6. 6. <ul><li>Socio-economical data collected at the household-level </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Field survey (sociology team) in 2007 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Collection of quantitative (age of the household’s chief, …) and qualitative (level of study, …) datas: 51 households </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Socio-economical analysis </li></ul><ul><ul><li>General and detailed (for each type) description of the households, based on socio-economical variables </li></ul></ul>Material & methods
  7. 7. <ul><li>Cadastral map of Palmares (land register) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>3 Sub-windows of 17 households </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>To cross land use changes and socio-economical parameters </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Statistical analysis </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Sample of 44 households </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Quantitative (economical variables social indicators, land use, land use changes) and qualitative (social indicators) variables </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Correlation analysis: to quantify the influence of these variables on land use changes and deforestation </li></ul></ul>Material & methods <ul><li>Relationship between land use changes and socio-economical parameters </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Focus on recent land use changes 2001-2007 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Focus on deforestation rates </li></ul></ul>
  8. 8. Results of classifications Gain in precision & complexity over time 1986 2001 1992 2007
  9. 9. Landscape analysis <ul><li>Composition of agricultural lot in 2007: </li></ul><ul><li>50% forested </li></ul><ul><li>16% fallows </li></ul><ul><li>15% multi-stratified plantations </li></ul><ul><li>11% pastures </li></ul><ul><li>8% bare lands </li></ul><ul><li>Deforestation rates: 45% of each forested lot was converted into non forest areas between 1986-2007 </li></ul><ul><li>Most of the changes occured between 2001-2007 </li></ul>Land use change at the sub-windows’ scale
  10. 10. Typologie of the farmer’s land use over time Identification of 7 dynamics of land use changes 6. Dynamic of regrowth 4. Dynamic of forest conversion into multi-stratified plantations (and pastures) 5. Active dynamic of forest burning (advanced stage) 2. Recent dynamic of forest burning (first stage of forest degradation) 7. Active dynamic of forest conversion into a mosaic of plantations, fallows and pastures 3. Development of agricultural practices (low impact on forests) Axis 1 Axe 2 Axe 1 PASTURE FOREST Axe 2 BURNED FORESTS 1. Recent dynamic of agricultural progression (forest degradation) PLANTATIONS
  11. 11. Type 6: Dynamic of regrowth traducing pasture and bare lands abandon and the progression of multi-stratified plantations Type 1: Recent dynamic of agricultural progression, especially pastures and multi-stratified plantations, at the detriment of the forest which was already exploited Description of the types Recent land use changes (2001-2007) at the household-level
  12. 12.
  13. 13. Results of the correlation analysis <ul><li>Household features influencing land-use decisions </li></ul><ul><li>Negative correlation </li></ul><ul><li>AMOUNT OF INCOMES </li></ul><ul><ul><li>deforestation rates & forest cover changes </li></ul></ul><ul><li>LEVEL OF STUDY </li></ul><ul><ul><li>pasture cover </li></ul></ul><ul><li>PRODUCTIVE CAPITAL FOR CATTLE RANCHING </li></ul><ul><li>DURATION OF STAY </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Bare and/or burned lands cover </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Positive correlation </li></ul><ul><li>AMOUNT OF CREDIT </li></ul><ul><ul><li>fallow cover (especially with non-refundable credits) </li></ul></ul>
  14. 14. <ul><li>Understanding of social, economical & political drivers and their influence on land use decisions of smallholders </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Specific parameters do influence land use decisions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Time effect of household trajectories (life cycle) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>New insight provides a reliable basis for drawing up local and regional sustainable management policies </li></ul><ul><li> for a more sustainable resources management </li></ul><ul><li> need for forest margin consolidation and remaining forest conservation   </li></ul>Conclusion
  15. 15. THANKS for your attention! <ul><li>For more information: </li></ul><ul><li>Cécile BILLARD </li></ul><ul><li>Msc. Degree in </li></ul><ul><li>Forest Ecology & Management </li></ul><ul><li>University of Freiburg – Germany </li></ul><ul><li>[email_address] </li></ul><ul><li>Valéry GOND </li></ul><ul><li>CIRAD – ES, UPR 105 </li></ul><ul><li>Biens et services des écosystèmes forestiers tropicaux </li></ul><ul><li>Campus de Baillarguet TA C-105/D-214 </li></ul><ul><li>34398 Montpellier Cedex 5 </li></ul><ul><li>Tel : (33) 4 67 59 37 87 </li></ul><ul><li>Projet : http://www.coforchange.eu/ </li></ul>
  16. 16. Typology of land use changes <ul><li>Determination of 4 main dynamics </li></ul><ul><li>-Empirical model- </li></ul><ul><li>A dynamic of deforestation and forest degradation, especially by burning </li></ul><ul><li>A dynamic of land exploitation by burning </li></ul><ul><li>A dynamic driven by the development of agricultural activities </li></ul><ul><li>A dynamic of secondary growth or natural regeneration </li></ul>

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