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Pantropical Fire Projections

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Presented by Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta in September 2019

Published in: Environment
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Pantropical Fire Projections

  1. 1. Pantropical Fire Projections September 2019
  2. 2. Objetive - Estimation of pantropical future change fires based on CMIP5 data and considering only linear control of climate variables in fire variability - Empiral linear model is employed as proxy for the link between burned area and climate variables (precip, tas …)
  3. 3. Methods ● Fit an empirical linear model to obtain burned area vs climate driver relationship ● Empirical model is obtained from linear fit of MODIS burned area estimations and CRU anomalies for: ○ Precipitation only ○ Precipitation and temperature ● Models are fitted for two season: ○ Dec-April ○ May-November ● Use the empirical model to derive burned area from CMIP5 model data climate variable ● Compute change statistics from precipitation, temperature and derived burned area ● Change values are shown as probabilities for different ranges (number of model predicting change in each of the intervals)
  4. 4. Data - Empirical Linear Control: - CRU Gridded Data (0.5deg), 1979-2017 - Variables: temperature, precipitation and scPDSI - MODIS 500m 2003-2016 - Climate Projections: - CMIP5 Model Dataset, ~40 model for each scenarios, 2005-2099 - Scenarios: RCP45 and RCP85 - Variables: precipitation and mean temperature
  5. 5. Temperature Changes
  6. 6. CMIP5 Temperature Change Probabilities (%) for for different threshold intervals Probabilities estimated as number of model projecting changing for each intervals. Change computed a difference between scenarios and historical period. Scenarios: rcp45 (moderate emission) and rcp45 (intense) Historical period: 1981-2005 Future projections estimated for the following periods: P1: 2025-2045 / P2: 2050-2074 / P3: 2075-2099
  7. 7. CMIP5 Temperature Change Probabilities (%) for for different threshold intervals Probabilities estimated as number of model projecting changing for each intervals. Change computed a difference between scenarios and historical period. Scenarios: rcp45 (moderate emission) and rcp45 (intense) Historical period: 1981-2005 Future projections estimated for the following periods: P1: 2025-2045 / P2: 2050-2074 / P3: 2075-2099
  8. 8. CMIP5 Temperature Change Probabilities (%) for for different threshold intervals Probabilities estimated as number of model projecting changing for each intervals. Change computed a difference between scenarios and historical period. Scenarios: rcp45 (moderate emission) and rcp45 (intense) Historical period: 1981-2005 Future projections estimated for the following periods: P1: 2025-2045 / P2: 2050-2074 / P3: 2075-2099
  9. 9. CMIP5 Temperature Change Probabilities (%) for for different threshold intervals Probabilities estimated as number of model projecting changing for each intervals. Change computed a difference between scenarios and historical period. Scenarios: rcp45 (moderate emission) and rcp45 (intense) Historical period: 1981-2005 Future projections estimated for the following periods: P1: 2025-2045 / P2: 2050-2074 / P3: 2075-2099
  10. 10. CMIP5 Temperature Change Probabilities (%) for for different threshold intervals Probabilities estimated as number of model projecting changing for each intervals. Change computed a difference between scenarios and historical period. Scenarios: rcp45 (moderate emission) and rcp45 (intense) Historical period: 1981-2005 Future projections estimated for the following periods: P1: 2025-2045 / P2: 2050-2074 / P3: 2075-2099
  11. 11. CMIP5 Temperature Change Probabilities (%) for for different threshold intervals Probabilities estimated as number of model projecting changing for each intervals. Change computed a difference between scenarios and historical period. Scenarios: rcp45 (moderate emission) and rcp45 (intense) Historical period: 1981-2005 Future projections estimated for the following periods: P1: 2025-2045 / P2: 2050-2074 / P3: 2075-2099
  12. 12. Precipitation Changes
  13. 13. Probabilities estimated as number of model projecting changing for each intervals. Change computed a % of rate between scenarios and historical period. Scenarios: rcp45 (moderate emission) and rcp45 (intense) Historical period: 1981-2005 Future projections estimated for the following periods: P1: 2025-2045 / P2: 2050-2074 / P3: 2075-2099 CMIP5 Precipitation Change Probabilities (%) for for different threshold intervals
  14. 14. Probabilities estimated as number of model projecting changing for each intervals. Change computed a % of rate between scenarios and historical period. Scenarios: rcp45 (moderate emission) and rcp45 (intense) Historical period: 1981-2005 Future projections estimated for the following periods: P1: 2025-2045 / P2: 2050-2074 / P3: 2075-2099 CMIP5 Precipitation Change Probabilities (%) for for different threshold intervals
  15. 15. Probabilities estimated as number of model projecting changing for each intervals. Change computed a % of rate between scenarios and historical period. Scenarios: rcp45 (moderate emission) and rcp45 (intense) Historical period: 1981-2005 Future projections estimated for the following periods: P1: 2025-2045 / P2: 2050-2074 / P3: 2075-2099 CMIP5 Precipitation Change Probabilities (%) for for different threshold intervals
  16. 16. Probabilities estimated as number of model projecting changing for each intervals. Change computed a % of rate between scenarios and historical period. Scenarios: rcp45 (moderate emission) and rcp45 (intense) Historical period: 1981-2005 Future projections estimated for the following periods: P1: 2025-2045 / P2: 2050-2074 / P3: 2075-2099 CMIP5 Precipitation Change Probabilities (%) for for different threshold intervals
  17. 17. Probabilities estimated as number of model projecting changing for each intervals. Change computed a % of rate between scenarios and historical period. Scenarios: rcp45 (moderate emission) and rcp45 (intense) Historical period: 1981-2005 Future projections estimated for the following periods: P1: 2025-2045 / P2: 2050-2074 / P3: 2075-2099 CMIP5 Precipitation Change Probabilities (%) for for different threshold intervals
  18. 18. Probabilities estimated as number of model projecting changing for each intervals. Change computed a % of rate between scenarios and historical period. Scenarios: rcp45 (moderate emission) and rcp45 (intense) Historical period: 1981-2005 Future projections estimated for the following periods: P1: 2025-2045 / P2: 2050-2074 / P3: 2075-2099 CMIP5 Precipitation Change Probabilities (%) for for different threshold intervals
  19. 19. Burned Area Changes
  20. 20. Probabilities estimated as number of model projecting changing for each intervals. Change computed as difference between scenarios and historical period. Scenarios: rcp45 (moderate emission) and rcp45 (intense) Historical period: 1981-2005 Future projections estimated for the following periods: P1: 2025-2045 / P2: 2050-2074 / P3: 2075-2099 Average Burned Area Change Probabilities (%) based on empirical estimated precipitation linear control Increase/DecreaseModerate/High/Strong intervals defined as changes that reach percentiles p60,p75,p90 (p40,p25,p10) of historical period.
  21. 21. Probabilities estimated as number of model projecting changing for each intervals. Change computed as difference between scenarios and historical period. Scenarios: rcp45 (moderate emission) and rcp45 (intense) Historical period: 1981-2005 Future projections estimated for the following periods: P1: 2025-2045 / P2: 2050-2074 / P3: 2075-2099 Average Burned Area Change Probabilities (%) based on empirical estimated precipitation linear control Increase/DecreaseModerate/High/Strong intervals defined as changes that reach percentiles p60,p75,p90 (p40,p25,p10) of historical period.
  22. 22. Probabilities estimated as number of model projecting changing for each intervals. Change computed as difference between scenarios and historical period. Scenarios: rcp45 (moderate emission) and rcp45 (intense) Historical period: 1981-2005 Future projections estimated for the following periods: P1: 2025-2045 / P2: 2050-2074 / P3: 2075-2099 Average Burned Area Change Probabilities (%) based on empirical estimated precipitation linear control Increase/DecreaseModerate/High/Strong intervals defined as changes that reach percentiles p60,p75,p90 (p40,p25,p10) of historical period.
  23. 23. Probabilities estimated as number of model projecting changing for each intervals. Change computed as difference between scenarios and historical period. Scenarios: rcp45 (moderate emission) and rcp45 (intense) Historical period: 1981-2005 Future projections estimated for the following periods: P1: 2025-2045 / P2: 2050-2074 / P3: 2075-2099 Average Burned Area Change Probabilities (%) based on empirical estimated precipitation linear control Increase/DecreaseModerate/High/Strong intervals defined as changes that reach percentiles p60,p75,p90 (p40,p25,p10) of historical period.
  24. 24. Probabilities estimated as number of model projecting changing for each intervals. Change computed as difference between scenarios and historical period. Scenarios: rcp45 (moderate emission) and rcp45 (intense) Historical period: 1981-2005 Future projections estimated for the following periods: P1: 2025-2045 / P2: 2050-2074 / P3: 2075-2099 Average Burned Area Change Probabilities (%) based on empirical estimated precipitation linear control Increase/DecreaseModerate/High/Strong intervals defined as changes that reach percentiles p60,p75,p90 (p40,p25,p10) of historical period.
  25. 25. Probabilities estimated as number of model projecting changing for each intervals. Change computed as difference between scenarios and historical period. Scenarios: rcp45 (moderate emission) and rcp45 (intense) Historical period: 1981-2005 Future projections estimated for the following periods: P1: 2025-2045 / P2: 2050-2074 / P3: 2075-2099 Average Burned Area Change Probabilities (%) based on empirical estimated precipitation linear control Increase/DecreaseModerate/High/Strong intervals defined as changes that reach percentiles p60,p75,p90 (p40,p25,p10) of historical period.
  26. 26. Probabilities estimated as number of model projecting changing for each intervals. Change computed as difference between scenarios and historical period. Scenarios: rcp45 (moderate emission) and rcp45 (intense) Historical period: 1981-2005 Future projections estimated for the following periods: P1: 2025-2045 / P2: 2050-2074 / P3: 2075-2099 Average Burned Area Change Probabilities (%) based on empirical estimated precipitation linear control Increase/DecreaseModerate/High/Strong intervals defined as changes that reach percentiles p60,p75,p90 (p40,p25,p10) of historical period.
  27. 27. Probabilities estimated as number of model projecting changing for each intervals. Change computed as difference between scenarios and historical period. Scenarios: rcp45 (moderate emission) and rcp45 (intense) Historical period: 1981-2005 Future projections estimated for the following periods: P1: 2025-2045 / P2: 2050-2074 / P3: 2075-2099 Average Burned Area Change Probabilities (%) based on empirical estimated precipitation linear control Increase/DecreaseModerate/High/Strong intervals defined as changes that reach percentiles p60,p75,p90 (p40,p25,p10) of historical period.
  28. 28. Probabilities estimated as number of model projecting changing for each intervals. Change computed as difference between scenarios and historical period. Scenarios: rcp45 (moderate emission) and rcp45 (intense) Historical period: 1981-2005 Future projections estimated for the following periods: P1: 2025-2045 / P2: 2050-2074 / P3: 2075-2099 Average Burned Area Change Probabilities (%) based on empirical estimated precipitation linear control Increase/DecreaseModerate/High/Strong intervals defined as changes that reach percentiles p60,p75,p90 (p40,p25,p10) of historical period.
  29. 29. Probabilities estimated as number of model projecting changing for each intervals. Change computed as difference between scenarios and historical period. Scenarios: rcp45 (moderate emission) and rcp45 (intense) Historical period: 1981-2005 Future projections estimated for the following periods: P1: 2025-2045 / P2: 2050-2074 / P3: 2075-2099 Average Burned Area Change Probabilities (%) based on empirical estimated precipitation linear control Increase/DecreaseModerate/High/Strong intervals defined as changes that reach percentiles p60,p75,p90 (p40,p25,p10) of historical period.
  30. 30. Probabilities estimated as number of model projecting changing for each intervals. Change computed as difference between scenarios and historical period. Scenarios: rcp45 (moderate emission) and rcp45 (intense) Historical period: 1981-2005 Future projections estimated for the following periods: P1: 2025-2045 / P2: 2050-2074 / P3: 2075-2099 Average Burned Area Change Probabilities (%) based on empirical estimated precipitation linear control Increase/DecreaseModerate/High/Strong intervals defined as changes that reach percentiles p60,p75,p90 (p40,p25,p10) of historical period.
  31. 31. Probabilities estimated as number of model projecting changing for each intervals. Change computed as difference between scenarios and historical period. Scenarios: rcp45 (moderate emission) and rcp45 (intense) Historical period: 1981-2005 Future projections estimated for the following periods: P1: 2025-2045 / P2: 2050-2074 / P3: 2075-2099 Average Burned Area Change Probabilities (%) based on empirical estimated precipitation linear control Increase/DecreaseModerate/High/Strong intervals defined as changes that reach percentiles p60,p75,p90 (p40,p25,p10) of historical period.

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