Pantropical Fire Projections
September 2019

Objetive
- Estimation of pantropical future change fires based on CMIP5 data and considering only linear
control of climate variables in fire variability
- Empiral linear model is employed as proxy for the link between burned area and climate variables
(precip, tas …)

Methods
● Fit an empirical linear model to obtain burned area vs climate driver relationship
● Empirical model is obtained from linear fit of MODIS burned area estimations and CRU anomalies
for:
○ Precipitation only
○ Precipitation and temperature
● Models are fitted for two season:
○ Dec-April
○ May-November
● Use the empirical model to derive burned area from CMIP5 model data climate variable
● Compute change statistics from precipitation, temperature and derived burned area
● Change values are shown as probabilities for different ranges (number of model predicting
change in each of the intervals)

Data
- Empirical Linear Control:
- CRU Gridded Data (0.5deg), 1979-2017
- Variables: temperature, precipitation and scPDSI
- MODIS 500m 2003-2016
- Climate Projections:
- CMIP5 Model Dataset, ~40 model for each scenarios, 2005-2099
- Scenarios: RCP45 and RCP85
- Variables: precipitation and mean temperature

Temperature Changes

CMIP5 Temperature Change
Probabilities (%) for for
different threshold intervals
Probabilities estimated as number
of model projecting changing for
each intervals.
Change computed a difference
between scenarios and historical
period.
Scenarios: rcp45 (moderate
emission) and rcp45 (intense)
Historical period: 1981-2005
Future projections estimated for
the following periods:
P1: 2025-2045 / P2: 2050-2074 /
P3: 2075-2099

CMIP5 Temperature Change
Probabilities (%) for for
different threshold intervals
Probabilities estimated as number
of model projecting changing for
each intervals.
Change computed a difference
between scenarios and historical
period.
Scenarios: rcp45 (moderate
emission) and rcp45 (intense)
Historical period: 1981-2005
Future projections estimated for
the following periods:
P1: 2025-2045 / P2: 2050-2074 /
P3: 2075-2099

CMIP5 Temperature Change
Probabilities (%) for for
different threshold intervals
Probabilities estimated as number
of model projecting changing for
each intervals.
Change computed a difference
between scenarios and historical
period.
Scenarios: rcp45 (moderate
emission) and rcp45 (intense)
Historical period: 1981-2005
Future projections estimated for
the following periods:
P1: 2025-2045 / P2: 2050-2074 /
P3: 2075-2099

CMIP5 Temperature Change
Probabilities (%) for for
different threshold intervals
Probabilities estimated as number
of model projecting changing for
each intervals.
Change computed a difference
between scenarios and historical
period.
Scenarios: rcp45 (moderate
emission) and rcp45 (intense)
Historical period: 1981-2005
Future projections estimated for
the following periods:
P1: 2025-2045 / P2: 2050-2074 /
P3: 2075-2099

CMIP5 Temperature Change
Probabilities (%) for for
different threshold intervals
Probabilities estimated as number
of model projecting changing for
each intervals.
Change computed a difference
between scenarios and historical
period.
Scenarios: rcp45 (moderate
emission) and rcp45 (intense)
Historical period: 1981-2005
Future projections estimated for
the following periods:
P1: 2025-2045 / P2: 2050-2074 /
P3: 2075-2099

CMIP5 Temperature Change
Probabilities (%) for for
different threshold intervals
Probabilities estimated as number
of model projecting changing for
each intervals.
Change computed a difference
between scenarios and historical
period.
Scenarios: rcp45 (moderate
emission) and rcp45 (intense)
Historical period: 1981-2005
Future projections estimated for
the following periods:
P1: 2025-2045 / P2: 2050-2074 /
P3: 2075-2099

Precipitation Changes

Probabilities estimated as number of model projecting changing for each intervals.
Change computed a % of rate between scenarios and historical period.
Scenarios: rcp45 (moderate emission) and rcp45 (intense)
Historical period: 1981-2005
Future projections estimated for the following periods:
P1: 2025-2045 / P2: 2050-2074 / P3: 2075-2099
CMIP5 Precipitation Change Probabilities (%) for for different threshold intervals

Probabilities estimated as number of model projecting changing for each intervals.
Change computed a % of rate between scenarios and historical period.
Scenarios: rcp45 (moderate emission) and rcp45 (intense)
Historical period: 1981-2005
Future projections estimated for the following periods:
P1: 2025-2045 / P2: 2050-2074 / P3: 2075-2099
CMIP5 Precipitation Change Probabilities (%) for for different threshold intervals

Probabilities estimated as number of model projecting changing for each intervals.
Change computed a % of rate between scenarios and historical period.
Scenarios: rcp45 (moderate emission) and rcp45 (intense)
Historical period: 1981-2005
Future projections estimated for the following periods:
P1: 2025-2045 / P2: 2050-2074 / P3: 2075-2099
CMIP5 Precipitation Change Probabilities (%) for for different threshold intervals

Probabilities estimated as number of model projecting changing for each intervals.
Change computed a % of rate between scenarios and historical period.
Scenarios: rcp45 (moderate emission) and rcp45 (intense)
Historical period: 1981-2005
Future projections estimated for the following periods:
P1: 2025-2045 / P2: 2050-2074 / P3: 2075-2099
CMIP5 Precipitation Change Probabilities (%) for for different threshold intervals

Probabilities estimated as number of model projecting changing for each intervals.
Change computed a % of rate between scenarios and historical period.
Scenarios: rcp45 (moderate emission) and rcp45 (intense)
Historical period: 1981-2005
Future projections estimated for the following periods:
P1: 2025-2045 / P2: 2050-2074 / P3: 2075-2099
CMIP5 Precipitation Change Probabilities (%) for for different threshold intervals

Probabilities estimated as number of model projecting changing for each intervals.
Change computed a % of rate between scenarios and historical period.
Scenarios: rcp45 (moderate emission) and rcp45 (intense)
Historical period: 1981-2005
Future projections estimated for the following periods:
P1: 2025-2045 / P2: 2050-2074 / P3: 2075-2099
CMIP5 Precipitation Change Probabilities (%) for for different threshold intervals

Burned Area Changes

Probabilities estimated as number of model projecting changing for each intervals.
Change computed as difference between scenarios and historical period.
Scenarios: rcp45 (moderate emission) and rcp45 (intense)
Historical period: 1981-2005
Future projections estimated for the following periods:
P1: 2025-2045 / P2: 2050-2074 / P3: 2075-2099
Average Burned Area Change Probabilities (%) based on empirical estimated precipitation linear control
Increase/DecreaseModerate/High/Strong intervals defined as
changes that reach percentiles p60,p75,p90 (p40,p25,p10) of
historical period.

Probabilities estimated as number of model projecting changing for each intervals.
Change computed as difference between scenarios and historical period.
Scenarios: rcp45 (moderate emission) and rcp45 (intense)
Historical period: 1981-2005
Future projections estimated for the following periods:
P1: 2025-2045 / P2: 2050-2074 / P3: 2075-2099
Average Burned Area Change Probabilities (%) based on empirical estimated precipitation linear control
Increase/DecreaseModerate/High/Strong intervals defined as
changes that reach percentiles p60,p75,p90 (p40,p25,p10) of
historical period.

Probabilities estimated as number of model projecting changing for each intervals.
Change computed as difference between scenarios and historical period.
Scenarios: rcp45 (moderate emission) and rcp45 (intense)
Historical period: 1981-2005
Future projections estimated for the following periods:
P1: 2025-2045 / P2: 2050-2074 / P3: 2075-2099
Average Burned Area Change Probabilities (%) based on empirical estimated precipitation linear control
Increase/DecreaseModerate/High/Strong intervals defined as
changes that reach percentiles p60,p75,p90 (p40,p25,p10) of
historical period.

Probabilities estimated as number of model projecting changing for each intervals.
Change computed as difference between scenarios and historical period.
Scenarios: rcp45 (moderate emission) and rcp45 (intense)
Historical period: 1981-2005
Future projections estimated for the following periods:
P1: 2025-2045 / P2: 2050-2074 / P3: 2075-2099
Average Burned Area Change Probabilities (%) based on empirical estimated precipitation linear control
Increase/DecreaseModerate/High/Strong intervals defined as
changes that reach percentiles p60,p75,p90 (p40,p25,p10) of
historical period.

Probabilities estimated as number of model projecting changing for each intervals.
Change computed as difference between scenarios and historical period.
Scenarios: rcp45 (moderate emission) and rcp45 (intense)
Historical period: 1981-2005
Future projections estimated for the following periods:
P1: 2025-2045 / P2: 2050-2074 / P3: 2075-2099
Average Burned Area Change Probabilities (%) based on empirical estimated precipitation linear control
Increase/DecreaseModerate/High/Strong intervals defined as
changes that reach percentiles p60,p75,p90 (p40,p25,p10) of
historical period.

Probabilities estimated as number of model projecting changing for each intervals.
Change computed as difference between scenarios and historical period.
Scenarios: rcp45 (moderate emission) and rcp45 (intense)
Historical period: 1981-2005
Future projections estimated for the following periods:
P1: 2025-2045 / P2: 2050-2074 / P3: 2075-2099
Average Burned Area Change Probabilities (%) based on empirical estimated precipitation linear control
Increase/DecreaseModerate/High/Strong intervals defined as
changes that reach percentiles p60,p75,p90 (p40,p25,p10) of
historical period.

Probabilities estimated as number of model projecting changing for each intervals.
Change computed as difference between scenarios and historical period.
Scenarios: rcp45 (moderate emission) and rcp45 (intense)
Historical period: 1981-2005
Future projections estimated for the following periods:
P1: 2025-2045 / P2: 2050-2074 / P3: 2075-2099
Average Burned Area Change Probabilities (%) based on empirical estimated precipitation linear control
Increase/DecreaseModerate/High/Strong intervals defined as
changes that reach percentiles p60,p75,p90 (p40,p25,p10) of
historical period.

Probabilities estimated as number of model projecting changing for each intervals.
Change computed as difference between scenarios and historical period.
Scenarios: rcp45 (moderate emission) and rcp45 (intense)
Historical period: 1981-2005
Future projections estimated for the following periods:
P1: 2025-2045 / P2: 2050-2074 / P3: 2075-2099
Average Burned Area Change Probabilities (%) based on empirical estimated precipitation linear control
Increase/DecreaseModerate/High/Strong intervals defined as
changes that reach percentiles p60,p75,p90 (p40,p25,p10) of
historical period.

Probabilities estimated as number of model projecting changing for each intervals.
Change computed as difference between scenarios and historical period.
Scenarios: rcp45 (moderate emission) and rcp45 (intense)
Historical period: 1981-2005
Future projections estimated for the following periods:
P1: 2025-2045 / P2: 2050-2074 / P3: 2075-2099
Average Burned Area Change Probabilities (%) based on empirical estimated precipitation linear control
Increase/DecreaseModerate/High/Strong intervals defined as
changes that reach percentiles p60,p75,p90 (p40,p25,p10) of
historical period.

Probabilities estimated as number of model projecting changing for each intervals.
Change computed as difference between scenarios and historical period.
Scenarios: rcp45 (moderate emission) and rcp45 (intense)
Historical period: 1981-2005
Future projections estimated for the following periods:
P1: 2025-2045 / P2: 2050-2074 / P3: 2075-2099
Average Burned Area Change Probabilities (%) based on empirical estimated precipitation linear control
Increase/DecreaseModerate/High/Strong intervals defined as
changes that reach percentiles p60,p75,p90 (p40,p25,p10) of
historical period.

Probabilities estimated as number of model projecting changing for each intervals.
Change computed as difference between scenarios and historical period.
Scenarios: rcp45 (moderate emission) and rcp45 (intense)
Historical period: 1981-2005
Future projections estimated for the following periods:
P1: 2025-2045 / P2: 2050-2074 / P3: 2075-2099
Average Burned Area Change Probabilities (%) based on empirical estimated precipitation linear control
Increase/DecreaseModerate/High/Strong intervals defined as
changes that reach percentiles p60,p75,p90 (p40,p25,p10) of
historical period.

Probabilities estimated as number of model projecting changing for each intervals.
Change computed as difference between scenarios and historical period.
Scenarios: rcp45 (moderate emission) and rcp45 (intense)
Historical period: 1981-2005
Future projections estimated for the following periods:
P1: 2025-2045 / P2: 2050-2074 / P3: 2075-2099
Average Burned Area Change Probabilities (%) based on empirical estimated precipitation linear control
Increase/DecreaseModerate/High/Strong intervals defined as
changes that reach percentiles p60,p75,p90 (p40,p25,p10) of
historical period.