MODELING FUTURE DEFORESTATION AND THE IMPACT ON BIODIVERSITY IN THE CONGO BASIN Martin TADOUM, COMIFAC Global Landscapes Forum, 201506/12/2015
2 Commission des Forêts d’Afrique Centrale Congo basin forest: Background • 2nd largest tropical rainforest: 186 millions ha • Low historical deforestation rate: 0,17% net deforestation over 2000-2005 • Strong interest for REDD+ expressed by COMIFAC countries
Methodological requirements for REDD+ • Definition of reference scenario: historical deforestation rate + future development policy for COMIFAC countries • Development of a robust and transparent MRV system • Establishement of the information system on safeguards (ISS) • National REDD+ Strategy Commission des Forêts d’Afrique Centrale
Congo Basin under pressure Hydro-power Iron Coltan Small-scale agriculture Which development pathway? Oil palm Commission des Forêts d’Afrique Centrale
A Modeling approach : Methodology GLOBIOM – global economic model adapted to Congo Basin context – used to predict future land uses DEMAND MARKET: DEMAND = SUPPLY SUPPLY IMPACTS ON THE ENVIRONMENT Commission des Forêts d’Afrique Centrale
Modeling results: Future deforestation Commission des Forêts d’Afrique Centrale Future deforestation increases from 6Mha over 2000-2010 (historical deforestation) to 9 Mha over 2020-2030 Deforested area in the COMIFAC countries 2010 2020 2030 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 Other crops Sugarcane Dry Beans Rice Pasture Groundnut Maize Oil Palm Cassava
Potential impact on biodiversity Commission des Forêts d’Afrique Centrale
Assessment of scenarios on several objectives Food security and economic development Climate change mitigation Biodiversity conservation Calories produced by inhab. Net food imports Total emissions Emissions from deforestation Great apes habitat loss Number of species loosing > 10% of their habitat High population and GDP growth -2.7% 14.9% 12.8% 13.8% 13.1% 9.4% Low population and GDP growth -0.5% -23.9% -14.8% -14.6% -13.3% -8.6% Non respect of protected areas 0.2% -0.8% 4.3% 2.9% 10.5% 13.5% Non respect of forest concessions 0.1% -0.2% 12.3% 14.0% 11.7% 3.5% Protected areas expansion -3.2% 4.9% 9.4% 8.9% -3.0% -71.2% Increase in agricultural yields 19.6% -25.8% -30.6% -32.1% -26.1% -15.1% Oil palm plantations expansion 2.6% 0.3% 1.9% 0.9% 2.1% 1.6% Increase in agricultural yields has positive impacts on all objectives Priority investments! Green: good to reach objective Red: bad to reach objective Objectives Scenarios
Conclusion Modeling is an important tool that can inform decision-makers with analysis of impacts of economic activities on forest cover, biodiversity and the land use change. Based on a better understanding of the land use change, help them make informed policy decision. Commission des Forêts d’Afrique Centrale
THANKS Tél : (+237) 22 21 35 11 (+237) 22 21 35 12 Fax: (+237) 22 20 48 03 BP. 20818 Yaoundé Cameroun Email : comifac@comifac.org - comifac2005@yahoo.fr Site web : www.comifac.org Une dim e nsio n ré g io nale po ur la co nse rvatio n e t la g e stio n durable de s é co systè m e s fo re stie rs COMMISSION DES FORETS D’AFRIQUE CENTRALE 10 REDD+ Policy Assessment Center

Editor's Notes

The measurement and the compensation of the countries efforts have become a major components of continuing REDD negotiation. For measurement, a reference level to which the future efforts can be compared is necessary. For the Congo Basin countries, the reference level should be based on the historical rate of deforestation and an adujustment factor, defined by a model taking into account the changing framework (growth of economies and population) in the sub-region. &lt;number&gt;
REDD-PAC can contribute to the elements in bold letters. However deforestation in the Congo Basin has accelerated in recent years and annual rates of both degradation and deforestation have almost doubled from 1990-2000 period to 2000-2005. And there are a myriad of signals in the Congo Basin that convergingly indicate an acceleration of forest loss. Based on the Forest transition theory, the Congo Basin may well be entering the second stage, with accelerated forest losses. So far, deforestation and forest degradation have been largely associated with expansion of subsistence activities (agriculture and energy) and concentrated around densely populated areas. Local and regional development, population increases and global demand for commodities are likely to increase deforestation and forest degradation in the Congo Basin. &lt;number&gt;
The GLOBIOM model was set up by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). It’s a linear programming model where the maximization of the producer and consumer surplus under resources and market constraints give the equilibrium quantities and prices for each region and products. It also includes non linear functions, which are represented as a discrete series of linearized steps. Globiom has a global coverage with countries being aggregated in 28 regions. The main advantage of using GLOBIOM is its detailed representation of land use and land qualities. The studies systematically assessed the status of these different sectors in the Congo Basin as well as prospects for their development in the coming decades. Based on this a qualitative assessment was made on potential impacts on forest cover. Based on this, a qualitative assessment was made on potential impacts on forest cover. agriculture, transport, energy, mining and logging. The sectoral reports and the outputs of the modeling exercise were then combined to provide Congo Basin countries with an in-depth analysis of the potential future deforestation dynamics. However, it is important to clarify that the study by no means aimed at providing some quantified forecasts of the future deforestation or at establishing reference levels in the context of the REDD negotiations. Rather the study aimed at providing decision-makers with a better understanding of the deforetation dynamics with a particular focus on the inter-linkages between the different sectors and thus the need for a coordinated and truly multi-sectoral approach. &lt;number&gt;
1. Factors which reduce future deforestation: Higher yield growth, lower population and GDP growth and expansion of protected areas 2. Factors which increase future deforestation: Expansion of oil palm area, agricultural expansion in permanent forest domain and high population and GDP growth 3. GLOBIOM approach allows to quantify the impact of each single crop  crop-specific supply chain interventions are possible &lt;number&gt;
Combination of map of modeled deforestation with potential species habitat  quantification of habitat loss through deforestation &lt;number&gt;
Most pessimistic scenario: High population and economic growth Most optimistic scenario: Increase of agricultural yields &lt;number&gt;
1. Unlike in other tropical countries, deforestation is rising in the Congo Basin countries: over 2010-2030 period, it could lead to the emission of 10 gigatons of CO2 2. Higher agricultural yields could reconcile agricultural development, climate change mitigation BUT…Lack of knowledge on the agricultural sector in he Congo Basin is a problem to design efficient policies; Could require a better enforcement and/or expansion of permanent forest domain to avoid rebound effects 3. Strong economic growth could increase deforestation through increased demand for agricultural and forest products BUT…It depends on how the fruits of economic growth are used! If creation of jobs outside the agricultural sector and investment in innovative technologies for increasing land productivity  might be positive for forests &lt;number&gt;
1. Unlike in other tropical countries, deforestation is rising in the Congo Basin countries: over 2010-2030 period, it could lead to the emission of 10 gigatons of CO2 2. Higher agricultural yields could reconcile agricultural development, climate change mitigation BUT…Lack of knowledge on the agricultural sector in he Congo Basin is a problem to design efficient policies; Could require a better enforcement and/or expansion of permanent forest domain to avoid rebound effects 3. Strong economic growth could increase deforestation through increased demand for agricultural and forest products BUT…It depends on how the fruits of economic growth are used! If creation of jobs outside the agricultural sector and investment in innovative technologies for increasing land productivity  might be positive for forests &lt;number&gt;

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Editor's Notes