1. THE UNFCCC POLICY LANDSCAPE
PRE LIMA
Stephen Leonard, Senior Policy Analyst – UNFCCC
Center for International Forestry Research
20 November 2014

2. SETTING THE STAGE
Big Picture
• Recent emissions reductions announcements
− EU: 40% on 1990 levels by 2030
− China: Emissions peak by 2030 / 20% zero emissions energy
by 2030
− USA: 26 – 28% on 2005 levels by 2025
• Financial Pledges being made
‒ Current pledges to GCF around US$9b – target this year
of US$10 – 15b
• Climate in G20 Communique despite Australian block
• However, very few Kyoto Amendment ratifications

3. SETTING THE STAGE – FORESTS
New Climate Agreement – Possible inclusions:
• REDD+ Mechanism
• REDD+ Window in the GCF
SBSTA
• Finalizing work on Safeguards in Lima
• Alternative Policy Approaches – adaptation links
Finance
• GCF Frameworks completed
• REDD+ Results Framework agreed in Barbados
• Standing Committee on Finance

4. THIS PRESENTATION…..
• SBs
– SBSTA – Metrics / REDD+ Safeguards /
REDD+ Alternative Policy Approaches /
Clean Development Mechanism – land
use
– SBI - Adaptation Plans
• New Climate Agreement – Elements &
INDCs
• Finance - Green Climate Fund / Standing
Committee on Finance

5. ACRONYMS
ADP: Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform
AR5: Fifth Assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
BRs: Biennial Reports
BURs: Biennial Update Reports
CDM: Clean Development Mechanism
CfRN: Coalition for Rainforest Nations
COP: Conference of Parties
GCF: Green Climate Fund
GEF: Global Environment Facility
INDCs: Intended Nationally Determined Contributions
IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
JMA: Joint Mitigation Adaptation
KP: Kyoto Protocol
LUCFA: Land Use Change and Forest Activities
LULUCF: Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry
MRV: Measuring Reporting and Verification
Nat Comms: National Communications
NAMAs: Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions
NAPs: National Adaptation Plans
NAPAs: National Adaptation Programmes of Action
SBSTA: Subsidiary Body on Scientific and Technical Advice
SBI: Subsidiary Body on Implementation
SCF: Standing Committee on Finance
SIS: Safeguards Information Systems
TEM: Technical Expert Meeting
UNFCCC: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
WS: Work Stream

6. SUBSIDIARY BODIES

7. SBSTA 41 – REDD+ SAFEGUARDS INFORMATION SYSTEMS
• The ‘need’ for further guidance on Safeguards Information Systems
– Unresolved issue for the past 2+ years
• Submissions received / compiled – CIFOR Analyses
– majority of submissions favor further guidance.
– trade-offs between further guidance and the promotion of country-driven
approaches and national sovereignty.
– need to minimize the burden for creation of and reporting on SIS.
– civil society organizations highlighted issues around equity and
participation of local people in the process.
– Useful guidance on how to develop a country-driven approach.

8. SBSTA 41 – ALTERNATIVE POLICY APPROACHES TO REDD+
• Warsaw mandate to agree at SBSTA 40 – no agreement so put back to
Lima
• Premised on Bolivian Proposal – JMA and Non Markets – alternative to
REDD carbon markets approach – not replacement
– Expert Meeting / Workshop held in Bonn @ SBSTA 40
– See:
https://unfccc.int/files/methods/redd/application/pdf/bolivian_proposal_j
ma_05.06.2014.pdf
• Debate over whether item remains under REDD or new Agenda item
– Brazil pushing to have the item considered outside the REDD Bali
Agenda item
– Bolivia want it to remain under REDD

9. SBSTA 41 – CDM & LULUCF
• CDM – under the Kyoto Protocol
• SBSTA 40 considered inputs from technical paper
• Ongoing consideration in Lima of additional LULUCF areas under the CDM:
– Revegetation including agroforestry and silvopastoral;
– Cropland management and grazing management
• Wetland drainage and rewettingCDM – under the Kyoto Protocol
• SBSTA 40 considered inputs from technical paper
• Ongoing consideration in Lima of additional LULUCF areas under the CDM:
– Revegetation including agroforestry and silvopastoral;
– Cropland management and grazing management
– Wetland drainage and rewetting

10. SBSTA 41 - METRICS
• Provide the basis for comparing impacts in multiple GHG reduction efforts
• Ongoing debate:
‒ KP =Global Warming Potential – others developed since 1997
‒ Whether to expand to other metrics / timescales
8 different metrics in AR5 / timescales: 20, 50 and 100 years
• Was considered in Bonn – no agreement – Lima
• Brazil – need an agreement - critical input to the ADP
‒ Discussion concerning agreement on a ‘common metric’ or ‘basket of
metrics’ for the new agreement

11. SBI 41 – NATIONAL ADAPTATION PLANS
• Much emphasis on the lack of finance:
– new climate agreement links:
• Finance including via GCF
• INDCs
• Norway calling for adaptation and forests to be discussed in NAPs context
– Expect more focus on forests and adaptation (SCF / GCF)
• Countries lacking understanding of technical guidance and seeking greater
clarity

12. THE DURBAN PLATFORM

13. THE DURBAN PLATFORM (ADP)
• Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform
• WS 1 - process to develop a protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed
outcome with legal force applicable to all Parties by 2015 for implementation
by 2020
• WS 2 - Pre 2020 - to explore options to close the ambition gap ensuring
highest possible mitigation efforts by Parties

14. PRE 2020 MITIGATION
• TEMs – part of the formal process:
– Land Use / Non CO2 Emissions (agriculture)
• Purpose:
– To enhance pre 2020 mitigation
– Provide guidance to UNFCCC Institutions (eg: GCF)
• Projects / programmes to finance
• Priority areas
– Likely to be ongoing to up 2020
• Possible to be broadened to include adaptation

15. PRE 2020 MITIGATION
• TEMS: Outputs:
– Land Use
• REDD+ remains high on the agenda
• high mitigation & Adaptation potential from forest and agricultural
sectors;
• a scaling up of finance, technology and capacity building is required;
• sectoral policies are required;
• participatory multi-stakeholder dialogues should commence at early
stages;
See: http://unfccc.int/bodies/awg/items/8171.php

16. PRE 2020 MITIGATION
• Non CO2 Emissions – Agriculture
– up to 80% of emissions from the agriculture sector could be reduced by
2030.
• Potential policies and actions identified include
– soil conservation;
– soil productivity and erosion control;
– nitrogen use efficiency;
– rice management;
– Research; and
– landscape approach
See: http://unfccc.int/bodies/awg/items/8420.php

17. NEW AGREEMENT - ADAPTATION
• Has had a clear increase in profile
• Major emphasis on scaling up finance
• Link in with current processes – NAPs, NAPAs and Adaption Fund
• Focus on a global adaptation goal – metrics
– Vulnerability, resource allocation, economics, research, finance
– Proposed process to be launched

18. NEW AGREEMENT - MITIGATION
• Focus on a global goal - options:
– temperature goal that reflects current science;
– emissions reduction goal – 40 – 70% below 2010 levels by 2050;
– maximum concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere – 350ppm;
– Carbon budget
• Divide as to whether developing countries should have economy wide
emissions reduction targets

19. NEW AGREEMENT – REDD+
• Current Non Paper (will form basis of draft text) – see:
http://unfccc.int/meetings/lima_dec_2014/session/8532.php
• Institutions: REDD+ Mechanism
– Possible Institution to be developed by SBSTA
– NB: CfRN proposal - informal meetings
• Finance: REDD+ Window in the GCF
– Would be specific institutional arrangements for REDD+

20. NEW AGREEMENT – INTENDED NATIONALLY DETERMINED
CONTRIBUTIONS
• CoP 20 – Agreement on scope –
draft text out now
• Commitments / Contributions – to
what extent will they be legally
binding in a new agreement?
• Parties to communicate their INDCs
to the UNFCCC by the first quarter
of 2015
• Countries beginning to express that
REDD+ likely to be relied on as a
contribution
– Outstanding question as to
what information would be
included on REDD+ eg:
safeguards information
systems summary?
• Disagreement remains as to
whether to do an ex ante
assessment in 2015 – will be an
issue in Lima
• Likely that INDCS will be broad –
Mitigation, Adaptation, Technology,
capacity building and finance
– Reflected in draft text for Lima
decision
– Possible links with reporting
processes – Biennial Report
and Biennial Update Reports
and International Assessment
and Review and International
Consultation and Analyses
• Other links – NAPs / NAPAs /
NAMAs

21. NEW AGREEMENT – CYCLES, RULES, MODALITIES
• MRV cycles already in place – BRs
/ BURs / Nat Comms etc….
– How does this link to INDCs
process where MRV is carbon?
• Review cycle: adequacy of INDCs
• Commitment cycle: emissions
reductions / finance etc
– Cannot be frozen in time
• 5 years or 10 years
– 5 year cycles with 10 year
indicative targets
– 10 year cycles with 5 year mid
term review
– In line with science - IPCC
• Accounting
– Most likely area of
convergence between LULUCF
& REDD+ - common
accounting rules
• Suggested that there be key
Principles across the land sector
– Technical work to be done
2015 – 2020
– Land-use change and forest
activities (NEW terminology)
• Principles – rights / landscapes
– What hooks should these
principles contain?

22. ADP – EXPECTATIONS FOR LIMA
• Decision on Pre 2020 mitigation / TEMs
• Decision on INDCs
– Scope of information – may elaborate on REDD inclusion
– Whether there will be an ex ante assessment in 2015
• Elements for a draft negotiating text
– BUT – intercessional in February 2015 - fall back!!!
– More clarity on Land-Use Change and Forest Activities (LUCFA)

23. FINANCE

24. STANDING COMMITTEE ON FINANCE
• Warsaw Mandate:
– Coordination and cohesion of finance and forests
– Beyond REDD+
• Eighth Meeting – October in Bonn
– Commenced preparations for 2015 Forum
– Released Background paper
• 2015 Forum on Finance and Forests
– May 2015
– Will inform Financial Mechanisms – GCF, GEF, Adaptation Fund
– Report to COP 21 (Paris)

25. GREEN CLIMATE FUND
• Operating entity of the Financial
Mechanism
• Eighth Board Meeting in October –
36 agenda items
• Governance Frameworks now in
place
• Accreditation Procedure now
agreed - Applications have been
release
– Fast track procedures in place
• Resource mobilization process in
place
– Next meeting 20 November
(today)
• REDD+ Results Based Payments
Framework – see:
http://www.gcfund.org/fileadmin/00_c
ustomer/documents/MOB201410-
8th/GCF_B.08_08_Rev.01_Initial_Lo
gic_Model_fin_20141022.pdf
• Limited to Carbon
– definition of results as ‘only’ ex
post payments?
• Recalls Warsaw language on
requirements (eg: SIS)
– No assessments process in
place for safeguards compliance
• Lacking – more work to be done
– recognition / incentives for non
carbon benefits
– clear framework in place for
Phase 1 & 2 finance

27. SYNERGIES & LANDSCAPES

28. SYNERGIES & LANDSCAPES
• There was much activity Pre SB 40 / ADP 2.5
• Agriculture Road Map goes through to mid 2016 – New Agreement will be
reached in 2015
– Agriculture discussion moving towards mitigation
• Mitigation and Adaptation synergies are central to a landscape approach –
under developed area
– High potential for development going forward
– Linked with non markets / alternative policy approaches
• REDD+ discussion moving towards adaptation
• Common accounting rules – high level principles

29. MITIGATION & ADAPTATION SYNERGIES
• Identified as important for the land sector in AR5
• ADP - current non paper includes several linkages
• GCF – Additional Adaptation Results Areas not agreed
• SCF – Alternative Policy Approaches
• SBSTA - Alternative Policy Approaches – JMA
– Some Parties have called for international technical guidance and
modalities on the issue – Bolivia, Singapore, China, PNG

30. ACRONYMS
ADP: Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform
AR5: Fifth Assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
BRs: Biennial Reports
BURs: Biennial Update Reports
CDM: Clean Development Mechanism
CfRN: Coalition for Rainforest Nations
COP: Conference of Parties
GCF: Green Climate Fund
GEF: Global Environment Facility
INDCs: Intended Nationally Determined Contributions
IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
JMA: Joint Mitigation Adaptation
KP: Kyoto Protocol
LUCFA: Land Use Change and Forest Activities
LULUCF: Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry
MRV: Measuring Reporting and Verification
Nat Comms: National Communications
NAMAs: Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions
NAPs: National Adaptation Plans
NAPAs: National Adaptation Programmes of Action
SBSTA: Subsidiary Body on Scientific and Technical Advice
SBI: Subsidiary Body on Implementation
SCF: Standing Committee on Finance
SIS: Safeguards Information Systems
TEM: Technical Expert Meeting
UNFCCC: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
WS: Work Stream

31. THANK YOU
cifor.org
blog.cifor.org
ForestsTreesAgroforestry.org