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John Ingram | Enhancing food system resilience


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John Ingram, visiting CIFOR from the Environmental Change Institute — University of Oxford, was the keynote speaker during a seminar on food systems on Feb. 12, 2019, organized by the CGIAR Research Program on Forests, Trees and Agroforestry (FTA).

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John Ingram | Enhancing food system resilience

  1. 1. John Ingram Food Systems Programme Leader Environmental Change Institute University of Oxford Enhancing Food System Resilience
  2. 2. Food Systems include a range of ‘Activities’ Material transformation Value addition
  3. 3. Environmental Outcomes • Climate change • Water availability • Water quality • Biodiversity • Biogeochemistry • Soil degradation • … Socioeconomic Outcomes • Income • Employment • Health • Social capital • Political capital • Ethics • … Trade-offs to be aware of! Synergies to exploit! Food System ‘Activities’ give rise to multiple ‘Outcomes’
  4. 4. Overall global food security ‘situation’ Insufficient cals Insufficient nutrs ~ 1 billion Insufficient nutrs ?3 billion Excess cals (incl. many with insufficient nutrs) > 2.5 billion Sufficient cals Sufficient nutrs ?3 billion Ø “Triple Burden of Malnutrition” Different, overlapping forms of malnutrition the ‘new normal’ (IFPRI 2015)
  5. 5. Food Systems Activities also have varied impacts on natural resources We also know the current global environmental ‘situation’ • Soil 33% degraded • Fresh water 20% aquifers overexploited • Biodiversity 60% of loss • Marine resources 29% over-fished; 61% fully-fished And 24% of total GHG emissions And pollution: chemicals, plastics, litter, …
  6. 6. Ø Links between human and animal prophylaxis, e.g. AMR Ø Increasing risk of disease emergence with the rapid changes at the A-H interface. And we know the current concerns about animal-human interactions
  7. 7. Ø Child labour Ø Animal welfare Ø Workers rights Ø Inter-generational legacy Ø Food waste Ø Farmer welfare and safety Ø Equity Ø Civil harmony Ø … And we have a host of current ethical concerns
  8. 8. 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Burundi Somalia India Mauritania Sudan Cameroon Yemen Mozambique Egypt Haiti Cote d’Ivoire Somalia Tunisia India Sudan Mozambique Tunisia Libya Egypt Mauritania Algeria Saudi Arabia Sudan Yemen Oman Morocco Iraq Bahrain Syria Uganda Food riots Lagi, Bertrand & Bar-Yam 2011
  9. 9. So what’s coming down the track?
  10. 10. Extreme weather events + change in means
  11. 11. Projections of change in forest cover and biodiversity index
  12. 12. Marked regional differences in projected population growth
  13. 13. And marked regional differences in projected increasing wealth Proportion of middle class by region Middle Class: $6,000-$30,000 p.a.
  14. 14. And we know that per capita daily dietary kCal demand increases with wealth over time Tilman and Clark, Nature 2014 Incl Indonesia
  15. 15. Emerging trends: 10.3m Type 2 diabetics in Indonesia
  16. 16. 1 2000 Billions of people (indicative; not to scale) 2 3 4 5 76 8 109 2040 2018 2028 kcal/person/day consumption 2000 The environmental consequences of meeting this demand under current food system practises and consumption trends are dire Costs of triple burden of malnutrition (direct, indirect and lost work days) currently 11% global GDP Looking ahead… Extrapolated calorie consumption The current global cost of the 425m diabetics is $825b/yr; 700m diabetics anticipated Manage Demand Meet Demand
  17. 17. Food System challenges are interconnected against a background of stresses and shocks Ø natural resource depletion and Ø many stagnating rural economies and Ø changing climate and extreme weather ands Ø social and socio-cultural changes To achieve food security for a growing, wealthier, urbanising population while minimising further environmental degradation
  18. 18. “The capacity over time of a food system and its units at multiple levels, to provide sufficient, adequate and accessible food to all, in the face of various and even unforeseen disturbances.” – just relates to Food Security So we need to enhance ‘Food System Resilience’ to these stresses and shocks Enhanced understanding needed to: ü accommodate different perspectives looking at a common problem (esp. concerning multiple societal goals) ü be based on use of evidence in a value-laden debate
  19. 19. Defining Resilience 4 Questions 1. Of what? 2. To what? 3. For whom? 4. Over what time period? Adapted from: Helfgott, European Journal of Operational Research, 2017
  20. 20. Food System OUTCOMES Food Utilisation Food Access Food Availability Food SecuritySocial Welfare • Income • Employment • Health • Social capital • Political capital • Ethics • … Environment • Climate change • Water availability • Water quality • Biodiversity • Biogeochemistry • Soil degradation • … Food System Activities to deliver Outcomes 1. Of what? Adapted from: Ingram, Food Security, 2011
  21. 21. “Stream Trains” “Black Swans” Easily perceived drivers and trends that will influence change - direct and indirect Rare and/or unpredictable events that have a big impact 2. To what? Food System Stresses and Shocks
  22. 22. 2. To what? Food System Stresses and Shocks Stress pressure or tension exerted on a system [Steam Trains] Shock sudden surprising event affecting a system [Black Swans] Demography Trade wars Social & cultural norms Election and Referenda results Natural resource degradation Food scares Climate Extreme weather Urbanisation Conflict Automation Geophysical events Science & technology Geopolitics
  23. 23. 3. For whom? Food system ‘actors’ Input industry Farmers, fishermen Con- summers Waste process, sewage Subsistence farmers Retailers, food service Food industry Traders, processors
  24. 24. 4. Over what time period? • Short-term interruptions (usually due to shocks) to eg: • Fishing or agricultural activities (due to e.g. extreme weather) • Critical ingredient shortfall (due to e.g. disease outbreak) • Just in time groceries delivery (due to e.g. IT malfunction) • Consumer shopping patterns (due to e.g. food scares) • Longer-term disruptions (usually due to stresses) to eg: • Natural resource degradation • Energy price • Low-carbon emission regulations • Change in dietary preferences
  25. 25. Growing volatility from stressors and shocks needs enhanced resilience 3 Resilience notions 1. Robustness Aim to resist disruption to current outcome 2. Recovery Aim to return to current outcome after disruption [bounce back] 3. Re-orientation Accept alternative outcome after disruption (transformation) [bounce forward] All involve Re-organisation Make changes to the system (adaptation)
  26. 26. Enhancing Resilience 1 Re-organise the Food System Activities Do the “doing” words differently
  27. 27. Enhancing Resilience 2 Re-organise the Food System ‘Drivers’ Social: education, media, household structure, social movements, health care systems, … Sci & Tech: farm inputs, food processing, food preparation, logistics and health technologies, … Environmental: climate, soil, water, pollution, biodiversity, … Policy: agri-environment schemes, nutrition, labour, health and safety, … Markets: preference, market structure, competition, trade, … Food System Drivers • Demography • Economic context • Socio-political context • Cultural context • Science & Technology • Environment Adapted from: The Institute of Medicine & The National Research Council of the National Academies, 2015
  28. 28. FOOD UTILISATION FOOD ACCESS FOOD AVAILABILITY Food Security Other Societal Interests • Income • Profit • Rural development • Employment • Health • Environment • Landscape • Ecosystem services • Animal welfare • … Enhancing Resilience 3 Re-organise our ‘views’ on what we want as Food System Outcomes
  29. 29. Providing a healthy, affordable, and environmentally-friendly diet for all people will require a radical transformation of the system. This will depend on: better farming methods, wealthy nations consuming less meat and countries valuing food which is nutritious rather than cheap. InterAcademy Partnership: 28 Nov 2018 Enhancing Resilience 3 Re-organise our ‘views’ on Food System Outcomes
  30. 30. ... exists when all people, at all times, have physical, economic and social access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life. “enough for a particular purpose; as much as you need” … OED Enhancing Resilience 3 Re-organise our views of the ‘demand function’
  31. 31. Sustainable Food System Activities ü Environmentally sound ü Socially acceptable ü Economically/Enterprise viable Healthy Diet Outcomes ü Calorie and nutrient density ü Quality ü Diversity ü Safe ü Affordable ü Acceptable ü Sufficient “Sustainable diets” “…healthy diets from sustainable food systems”
  32. 32. DRIVER Interactions Socioeconomic DRIVERS Changes in: Demographics, Economics, Socio-political context, Cultural context Science & Technology Environmental DRIVERS Changes in: Land cover & soils, Atmospheric Comp., Climate variability & means, Water availability & quality, Nutrient availability & cycling, Biodiversity, Sea level ‘Natural’ DRIVERS e.g. Volcanoes Solar cycles Environmental feedbacks e.g. water quality, GHGs, biodiversity Socioeconomic feedbacks e.g. nutrition, business, political stability Food Utilisation Food Access Food Availability Food Security A ‘Complex Adaptive System’ Where to intervene, and who does what? Social,Political,Business,S&TandBiophysicalEnvironments Social Welfare Environ- ment
  33. 33. Ø Complex adaptive system, many interactive ‘drivers’ and feedbacks Ø Set of dynamic actors and activities Ø Interactive socioeconomic and environmental outcomes Ø Wide range of power and vested interests; fragmented governance Ø Confused terminology However… Ø Many policy, fiscal, social and technical options for change Ø Multiple options for cooperation among actors Ø Many plausible futures Why is it so hard to make progress?
  34. 34. 1 2500 Billions of people 2 3 4 5 76 8 109 2040 2028 kcal/person/day consumption ----------- Too much ------------ ----- Too little -------- Appropriate amount --- Different motives, different agendas … Health & Environment Agenda e.g. WHO, UNEP, WWF, … Further synergies should be possible: will need multi- actor design and delivery – including business. Development Agenda e.g. FAO, CGIAR, CARE, …
  35. 35. ‘Post-farm gate’ Food System Activities processing, packaging, trading, shipping, storing, advertising, retailing, … => Final Cals/Nutrient Quantity and Price at shop Productivity Diversity & Quality Local, Regional & Global Production Activities farming, horticulture, livestock raising, aquaculture, fishing, … => Basic Cals/Nutrient Quantity and Price at farm Constraints on dietary choice and diversity affordability, preference, allocation, cooking skill, convenience, cultural norms, … => Consumption by Sub-populations Food System approach highlights roles of food chain actors CONSUMERS PRODUCERS FOOD CHAIN ACTORS Social,Political,Business,S&TandBiophysicalEnvironments Insufficient cals Insufficient nutrs ~ 1 billion Sufficient cals Insufficient nutrs ? 3 billion Excess cals (incl. many with insufficient nutrs) > 2.5 billion Sufficient cals Sufficient nutrs