Issues and Solutions for SFM in a
Changing Climate in the AP region
Dr. Guangyu Wang
Assistant Dean, Faculty of Forestry
University of British Columbia

Outline
• Climate change impacts in the Asia-Pacific region
• Experts’ perspectives on climate change and
forest adaptation
• A framework for developing adaptation strategies
and SFM: Adaptation of Asia-Pacific Forests to
Climate Change
• Next steps for achieving SFM in the Asia-Pacific
region
Adaptation of Asia-Pacific Forests to Climate Change
Asia-Pacific Forestry Week 2016

Climate Change in the AP Region
• The AP region risks unprecedented
numbers of people displaced by
floods, storms and other impacts of
climate change
• In 2014, river basin floods caused
US$16 billion in losses and killed
1281 people
• The Nepal Sunkoshi Landslides killed
229 people in 2014
• Tropical cyclone Rammasun in July
2014 killed 94 people in the
Philippines
3
Adaptation of Asia-Pacific Forests to Climate Change
Asia-Pacific Forestry Week 2016

October 3, 2011, About 1.5 million hectares
(3.7 million acres) of paddy fields in
Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos have
been damaged or are at risk from the worst
floods to hit the region
September 3rd, 2011, Guizhou and Yunnan
provinces are facing another challenge,
depleted food supplies. Locals say the dry
weather has affected normal crop yields,
sending food prices skyrocketing.
Pinewood Nematode

Reported Natural Disasters in the Asia-
Pacific in 2014
(Source: UN ESCAP)
5

Population, area, and economy directly
affected by a one meter rise in sea level
(estimates based on 2010’s situation)
Source: USAID Asia Pacific Climate Change Assessment Report. 2010
6

Climate Change in the AP Region
• Climate change has impacted an array of social and ecological
systems, and is expected to:
– Alter forest structure and species distribution
– Increase the spread of pests, diseases, and fires
– Adversely affect wetlands and mountain ecosystem
– Increase desertification leading to the loss of forests and forest
dependent communities
– Reduce the cryosphere
– Change agricultural and fishery outputs
Adaptation of Asia-Pacific Forests to Climate Change
Asia-Pacific Forestry Week 2016

Impacts on Forestry
Adaptation of Asia-Pacific Forests to Climate Change
Asia-Pacific Forestry Week 2016

Source: L. Maclaughlan, BC MoF

Cities in China are now becoming more vulnerable to climate change
11

Source: Xinhua
Northwest China

Severe damage was caused by snow in southern China
in 2008 (picture is from Zhijiang Province)

Climate change in the future?

Experts’ Perspectives Survey
Objectives：
- To identify experts'
perspectives on the impacts of
climate change and forest
adaptation in the Asia-Pacific
region
- To explore the
implications/recommendation
s for adapting forests to
climate change in the Asia-
Pacific region
Adaptation of Asia-Pacific Forests to Climate Change
Asia-Pacific Forestry Week 2016

Research Methods
The questionnaire consisted of 15 questions within 4 sections:
1) Main impacts of climate change
2) Availability of climate change related actions/policies
3) Challenges for adapting forestry to climate change
4) Potential to improve current actions to adapt forestry to
climate change
The questionnaire was distributed to forestry and climate
change experts from various Asia-Pacific countries and
disciplines.
Adaptation of Asia-Pacific Forests to Climate Change
Asia-Pacific Forestry Week 2016

Representation
South Asia
12%
Southeast
Asia
43%
Eastern Asia
22%
Oceania
13%
America
10%
Subregions
Government
22%
Academic
63%
Private
Sector
15%
Professions
Adaptation of Asia-Pacific Forests to Climate Change
Asia-Pacific Forestry Week 2016

Adaptation of Asia-Pacific Forests to Climate Change
Results: Impacts of Climate Change
• Forest and water related issues were the top three negative impacts of
climate change indicated by respondents
• The positive impacts indicated were associated with forest related growth
and productivity, with higher awareness in developed countries
0 1 2 3 4 5
Other
Rising sea level
Flooding
Drought
Fire hazards
Forest disturbances
Melting of ice/snow
Storms and tornadoes
Spread of disease
Spread of insects
Freshwater shortage
Mean Level of Concern
What are the main concerns about possible climate
change impacts in your region?
Asia-Pacific Forestry Week 2016

• Agriculture and forestry were indicated as the most impacted economic
sectors, with similar consensus observed within subregions
• Changes in forest fire/drought and biodiversity changes were most frequently
indicated as the major impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Other
Land suitability changes
Forest productivity changes
Changes in forest fire/droughts
Disease spread
Changes in pest outbreaks
Biodiversity changes
% of Responses
What are the major impacts of climate change on
forest ecosystems in your region?
Results: Impacts of Climate Change
Adaptation of Asia-Pacific Forests to Climate Change
Asia-Pacific Forestry Week 2016

50
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
Lack of Scientific
guidance
Legislation Action plans Public awareness Stakeholders
participation
%ofResponses
What are the most important challenges for the forestry
sector to adapt to climate change in your region?
Results: Challenges for Adapting
Forestry to Climate Change
Adaptation of Asia-Pacific Forests to Climate Change
Asia-Pacific Forestry Week 2016

0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Knowledge of CC Understanding of
local predicted CC
scenarios
Sophisticated
climate models
Understanding
ecosystem dynamics
Forest adaptation
rehabilitation
techniques
%ofResponses
Is there a lack of scientific support in any of the following areas
that might help to address climate change adaptation?
Results: Challenges for Adapting
Forestry to Climate Change
Adaptation of Asia-Pacific Forests to Climate Change
Asia-Pacific Forestry Week 2016

Comprehensive research
approaches
UBC’s Faculty of Forestry (partnering with APFNet) is
able to provide holistic scientific support:
• Climate Modeling
• Remote Sensing & Ecological Assessment
• Biomass and Carbon Modelling
• SD Strategic Planning
• Adaptive Management
22

Public perception and capacity
building
Soil degradation and protection
Research Framework
and Organization
LULC change
23
Modeling and regional sustainability
assessment

Local livelihood and forest management

Public perception and capacity
building

LULCC dynamics

Watershed: social, environmental and
economic development
1. Audit Planning
 Objective, scope, extent, setting of auditing
4. Primary Information Review
 Existing information analysis
 Identification of unclear issues
 Planning the evidence collection
2. Watershed management information
collection
 Based on C&I of both sustainable forest
management and regional development
C&I

5. Documentation
 Documents reviews
 Records, permits
 Plans, guidelines, etc.
6. Consultation
 Local communities
 Industry
 Watershed Agencies
7. Field checks
 Implementation Plans, guidelines,
status, maps, ownership, boundaries.
 Watershed social and environment
achievements
8. Data Analysis
 Consistency of evidence
 Adequacy of information for assessing the conformity with C&I
 Identification of any additional evidence needed
9. Collection of additional evidence
 Documents, interviews, consultations, field
checks
10. Assessment of evidence against C&I
 Findings on each criteria
 Identification of corrective action requirements and areas
which need improvement
11. Assessment on sustainability
 Conformity with the C&I
 Conclusions
12. Reporting
 Audit report
3. Other sources of
information
 Government authorities,
research institutes,
NGOs etc.
 Records, permits, forest
inventories, surveys,
opinions, etc.
Source: Modified ITTO report

Local research
accumulation

Climate
models
Impact
assessments
Adaptation
strategies
A Framework to Develop Adaptation and
SFM Strategies in Forestry
ClimateBC
ClimateWNA
ClimateChina
---Climate AP
Ecosystems
Species range
Population
responses
Essential Fundamental Critical
BEC based
management
Assistant migration
Climate based Seed
transfer system
Adaptation of Asia-Pacific Forests to Climate Change
Asia-Pacific Forestry Week 2016

Critical Elements for Developing
Adaptation and SFM Strategies
• Management level climate modeling
• Application of scientific tools
• Regional data (climate, hydrological,
forest resources)
• Knowledgeable and well trained staff
• Long term commitment
Adaptation of Asia-Pacific Forests to Climate Change
Asia-Pacific Forestry Week 2016

Adaptation of Asia-Pacific Forests to Climate Change
ClimateAP
• Provides high-resolution
and high-quality climate
data for historical and
future periods
• The web-based version is
easily accessible to non-
climatologists
• ClimateAP promotes
climate change research
and application in the
region, and addresses the
lack of publicly available,
high-resolution climate
models
Coverage
http://climateap.net/
Asia-Pacific Forestry Week 2016

Ecological Modeling
• We developed 8 niche-based and process-based ecological models that
can be used at varying spatial and temporal scales
– Niche-based model
– Process-based models
• FORCAST-Climate
• TACA
• LANDIS-II
• 3-PG
• Carbon Budget Model (CBM)
– Model integration
• Landscape Summary Tool (LST)
• Patchworks
• These tools provide a framework to assess climate change impacts and
develop locally specific adaptation and SFM strategies, which will
significantly improve decision making and management practices.
Adaptation of Asia-Pacific Forests to Climate Change
Asia-Pacific Forestry Week 2016

Modeling Spatial-Temporal Variations in
Forest Productivity
• Modeling spatial-temporal variations in forest productivity (e.g.
NDVI) will enable better long term management planning under
a changing climate
Spatial distribution of vegetation dynamic changes in the Asia-Australia region from
1982 to 2011: trend of annual photosynthetic activity (annual mean NDVI trend).
Asia-Pacific Forestry Week 2016

Developing Multi-Dimensional Strategic
Management Planning
• Forest management objectives should address not
only timber production, but other aspects, such as
carbon storage, societal needs, and preservation of
wildlife and biodiversity.
• Using multi-dimensional strategic planning
frameworks will facilitate decision making by
performing trade-off analysis among values.
Adaptation of Asia-Pacific Forests to Climate Change
Asia-Pacific Forestry Week 2016

Biomass (Forest)
Stock
Water Balance
Carbon Balance
Ecosystem
Services
Climate Change
(different
scenarios)
Education &
Research
Aesthetic &
Recreation
Biodiversity
Conservation
Fish
Conservation
Model Framework for Multi-Dimensional
Strategic Management Planning
Main components and connections
Adaptation of Asia-Pacific Forests to Climate Change
Asia-Pacific Forestry Week 2016

Value-Based Decision Framework
Social Economic Environmental Hydrology Carbon Trade-offs
Environmental: land-base specific, GAR and TSR based
Visual Qualities Mule Deer Winter Range
Integrated Resource Management
Adaptation of Asia-Pacific Forests to Climate Change
Asia-Pacific Forestry Week 2016

Value-Based Decision Framework
Social Economic Environmental Hydrology Carbon Trade-offs
Value-Based Trade-Off Analyses
Costs
Increased Interests
Adaptation of Asia-Pacific Forests to Climate Change
Asia-Pacific Forestry Week 2016

Network and Capacity Building
• We established a Climate Research Network among China, Australia,
USA, and Canada, and will extend it to SE Asian economies in Phase II.
– Facilitated capacity building and knowledge transfer
– Strengthened decision-making regarding forest management responses to
climate change
• We hosted training workshops for local partners
• Research was conducted at pilot sites in AP economies
– Phase I: Canada, China and Australia
– Phase II: Malaysia, Myanmar, Laos, Chinese Taipei and China
Adaptation of Asia-Pacific Forests to Climate Change
Asia-Pacific Forestry Week 2016

Working with local
governments, communities,
and forest managers
Adaptation of Asia-Pacific Forests to Climate Change
Asia-Pacific Forestry Week 2016

Promotion at IUFRO
Congress in Salt Lake City,
USA (September 2014)
and at WFC in Durban,
South Africa (September
2015)
Adaptation of Asia-Pacific Forests to Climate Change
Asia-Pacific Forestry Week 2016

Next Steps for Achieving SFM in the AP
• Forestry issues need to be considered within the broader
inter-sectoral realm
– Forestry cannot be viewed in isolation, as numerous
economic sectors contribute to forest loss and degradation
– Solutions to forestry issues must also be sought in policy
reform outside forestry (e.g. changes in agricultural
policies may reduce pressure on remaining natural forests)
• Sustainable forestry needs to be developed in conjunction
with sustainable livelihoods in order to improve
environmental conditions while alleviating poverty
Asia-Pacific Forestry Week 2016
Adaptation of Asia-Pacific Forests to Climate Change

Next Steps for Achieving SFM in the AP
• Forest adaptation and mitigation strategies need to
be based on sound science using the best available
models and tools
• Regionally specific research needs to be conducted
to generate SFM plans suitable for the given regions
environmental, social, and political conditions
– This can be done by performing trade-off analyses
using tools such as FORECAST Climate and Landscape
Summary Tool (LST)
Asia-Pacific Forestry Week 2016
Adaptation of Asia-Pacific Forests to Climate Change

Next Steps for Achieving SFM in the AP
Regional and International Collaboration
• There are numerous organization for AP economies to
collaborate with, which will facilitate knowledge sharing and
capacity building, and improve climate change resilience and
SFM practices
– APFNet for sustainable forest management and rehabilitation
– UNFCCC and REDD+
– Association of Southeast Asian Nations
– Great Mekong Subregion
– Pacific Island Forum
– South Asian Association for Regional Collaboration
– The South Asian Cooperative Environmental Program
• More developed economies need to increase support for
knowledge and capacity building so that less developed
economies can achieve their COP21 commitments
Adaptation of Asia-Pacific Forests to Climate Change
Asia-Pacific Forestry Week 2016

Thank you!
Guangyu.wang@ubc.caAny questions?