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FIRE IN THE TROPICS: Understanding, foreseeing and acting on future fire risk in tropical landscapes

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Presented by Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta (CIFOR) on 28 August 2019 at "Fire Trends in Ethiopia in the Context of REDD+ and FLR Investments" Workshop, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

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FIRE IN THE TROPICS: Understanding, foreseeing and acting on future fire risk in tropical landscapes

  1. 1. Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta (R.Roman-Cuesta@cgiar.org) Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta, Habte Kassa, Gil Lizano, Christopher Martius Addis Ababa, 28th August 2019 FIRE IN THE TROPICS: Understanding, foreseeing and acting on future fire risk in tropical landscapes FIRE IN THE TROPICS: Understanding, foreseeing and acting on future fire risk in tropical landscapes
  2. 2. Andela et al. (2017) Science FIRE IN THE TROPICS: Understanding, foreseeing and acting on future fire risk in  tropical landscapes (1998‐2015)  (1998‐2015)  Ethiopia Indonesia Colombia
  3. 3. Goals of the USAID project • To identify hotspots of fire risk in the tropics to support fire risk  reduction action  • To assess the effectiveness of fire management interventions in  Indonesia (25th July) • To characterize fire trends in Ethiopia and its permanence risk over  REDD+ and landscape restoration in Ethiopia (28th August) • To track fire dynamics in the post‐FARC conflict in Colombia (done)
  4. 4. This workshop is a Scoping Exercise that aims at: 1. Identifying experiences on fire management in Ethiopia 2. Identifying fire threats and fire management needs for different ecosystem  types in Ethiopia ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐mainstreaming fire into REDD+ and Restoration  initiatives 3. Receiving feedback from the participants’ experience on research needs and  priority actions for fire management in Ethiopia
  5. 5. Workshop organization 1. MORNING: Presentations  Please use the CARDS to write questions and comments 2. AFTERNOON: Participatory part to identify research needs and  priority action for fire management in Ethiopia, also in the  context of REDD+ and Restoration initiatives) We will create 4 groups that will discuss 4 questions in 20  min windows.
  6. 6. THANK YOU ALL FOR BEING HERE! እዚህ ለመሆን ሁላችሁም አመሰግናችኋለሁ
  7. 7. Fire trends in Ethiopia in the last 17 years (2000‐2018) and fire‐climate  reactivity  Rosa Maria Roman‐Cuesta, Gil Lizano, Habte Kassa  Addis Ababa, 28th August 2019  r.roman‐cuesta@cgiar.org
  8. 8. Moritz et al. (2005) PNAS 2018, Kenya
  9. 9. Climate Action, March 2019
  10. 10. Indonesia 2019
  11. 11. Brazil 2019
  12. 12. Alaska and Canada 2019
  13. 13. Fire disturbances: the importance of scale Are these fires ‘normal’? Fire regimes vs Fire trends 30 rule Sources:  human, lightning Fire regimes  Frequency  Intensity  Severity  Size  Season  Pattern Fire risk (ignition) Fire danger (spread) Ecosystem type dependent Fire management interventions
  14. 14. V V Fires in Ethiopia (2001‐2018)‐ Landsat
  15. 15. Ethiopia country area is 110 Mha 10% of the country burns annually Fires in Ethiopia Year Burned area (ha) 2001 11,386,627 2002 11,986,433 2003 8,540,651 2004 8,549,529 2005 8,930,175 2006 8,083,993 2007 7,954,193 2008 7,692,756 2009 8,200,491 2010 7,130,370 2011 6,426,712 2012 6,118,079 2013 6,680,726 2014 7,997,244 2015 7,468,021 2016 7,334,511 2017 7,972,339 2018 6,989,404 Figure 1. Landsat time‐series (2001‐2018) of Ethiopia’s burned areas, derived by analysing LANDSAT imagery in Google Earth Engine https://earthengine.google.com/ . V There is far MORE fire than reported 1984  High Forests 209,913 ha 2000   150,000 ha Source: Vegetation Types and Forest Fire Management in  Ethiopia. Paper Presented at the “Round Table Conference  on Forest Fire in Ethiopia” 19‐20 September 2000 Demel Teketay, PhD Fires in Ethiopia (2001‐2018)‐ Landsat
  16. 16. Fire seasonality (Nov) DEC‐JAN‐APR‐MAY (Jun)
  17. 17. Olson et al. 2000  Ecoregions12 In Ethiopia 9 Vegetation types in the  10 Conservation Strategy of Ethiopia
  18. 18. 30% of burned area 30% of burned area 18% of burned area 15% of burned area 4 ecoregions lead 93% of the fires  (2001‐2018)
  19. 19. Crossboundary fires!! reduction increase
  20. 20. MODIS underestimates small fire burns  Total area burned with Landsat is between x3 and x5 (e.g. 2017) Ground validation needed! National Fire Statistics needed!
  21. 21. Fire correlation with Precipitation, Max. Temperature, Drought (PDSI) Precipitation and Drought seem to drive burned areas Early warning and prevention
  22. 22. Fire correlation  with Precip.,  Max. Temp., Drought (PDSI) (2001‐2018) Mountain grasslands And Woodlands Mountain Forests Early warning and prevention
  23. 23. Fire correlation  with Precip.,  Max. Temp., Drought (PDSI) (2001‐2018) East Sudanian savannas Somali Acacia‐ Commiphora Bushland and thickets
  24. 24. • Strong correlation with Pacific warming trends  • Inverse responses between highlands and lowlands
  25. 25. Next steps  •Identifying fire drivers: climate vs human •Investigating fire management options and mainstreaming into REDD+ and FLR programs •Extrapolating current fire risks to future climate conditions
  26. 26. Thank you

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