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China's Conversion of Cropland to Forest Program: Monitoring, evaluation & future direction

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This presentation by Nick Hogarth gives information about the background of CIFOR-FEDRC partnership to analyze the impact of the China's Sloping lands conversion program. In addition, it presents scopes of the activities including analysis of the exixting FEDRC data set, fieldwork for collecting new data, dissemination and knowledge sharing, and potential research in the future

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China's Conversion of Cropland to Forest Program: Monitoring, evaluation & future direction

  1. 1. China’s Conversion of Cropland to Forest Program: Monitoring, evaluation & future directions Monday, June 2nd, 2014 Wuhan, China CIFOR-FEDRC joint research project Nick Hogarth: n.hogarth@cgiar.org
  2. 2. Project aims & objectives  Support FEDRC’s ongoing M&E of socioeconomic & environmental impacts of the CCFP.  To develop a more rigorous methodology for program impact assessment (i.e. M & E), to identify gaps/shortcomings & feasible approaches to address them. - Assess & report on FEDRC’s CCFP monitoring program - Identify gaps & suggest new questions & approaches  To use rigorous econometric techniques to analyze FEDRC data to estimate program impacts, formulate a more comprehensive policy model, & better anticipate future trends under different scenarios.
  3. 3. Project aims & objectives  To contribute to policy development for the program beyond 2016.  Disseminate results of CCFP research through high quality international publications & other outlets.  Share knowledge & expertise from the CCFP & FEDRC’s experience in the region & globally.
  4. 4. Focus of today’s presentation  Analyses of existing FEDRC datasets  Fieldwork program  Collection of new data, new research & analyses  Next steps & project expansion  Dissemination, knowledge sharing  Assessment of FEDRC’s monitoring & evaluation program
  5. 5. Assessment of FEDRC’s monitoring & evaluation program  Identify gaps in survey design, methods & implementation - help fill the gaps.  Achieved by a combination of fieldwork & assessment of the data to determine additional data collection needs.  Status/outputs: - Fieldwork conducted to pilot test M&E assessment methods. - Additional questions added to the 2014 survey instrument. - Expanded fieldwork program planned for 2014.
  6. 6. Assessment of FEDRC’s monitoring & evaluation program Household CCFP land site inspection in Baoshang Village, Longlin County, Guangxi. Photo by Nick Hogarth Xie Chen (FEDRC) conducting ‘Monitored household surveys’ in Pingguo County, Guangxi. Photo by Nick Hogarth Pilot testing the Household CCFP site inspection survey in Long Se Village, Ping Guo County, Guangxi. Photo by Nick Hogarth
  7. 7. Analyses of existing FEDRC datasets 12+ year panel data  >12 years’ data: 1,165 households, 100 counties, 22 provinces  Initial focus on the Southwest
  8. 8. Map by Wang Jiang FEDRC-CCFP monitoring sites & project focus provinces
  9. 9. Map by Wang Jiang
  10. 10. Analyses of existing FEDRC datasets 12+ year panel data  >12 years’ data, 1,165 households, 100 counties, 22 provinces  Initial focus on the Southwest  Status/outputs - Data has been assessed, cleaned & organised - Variables defined - Translated into English - Analyses of 4 southwest provinces underway - Project-wide analyses to follow
  11. 11. Analyses of existing FEDRC datasets 2010 ‘Student’ dataset - Cross-sectional data set: 2,808 households, 419 villages, 228 townships, 132 counties, 24 provinces. - Unique, one-time data set collected by FEDRC & 125 Beijing Forestry University students in 2010 - The most representative sample of CCFP households  Status/outputs - Data has been assessed, cleaned & organised - Variables defined - Translated into English - Preliminary nationwide analyses conducted - First academic paper in review
  12. 12. Interval regression analyses used to explain household-reported survival rate of trees planted on CCFP enrolled land using regional indicators, household characteristics & local institutions as explanatory variables
  13. 13. Collection of new data, new research & analyses  Additional data collected through the fieldwork program to complement existing FEDRC datasets  GIS/Remote Sensing work to assess land-cover change, biomass & carbon contribution of the CCFP.  Additional data collected from questions added to the FEDRC survey  Systematic Review of the CCFP literature in both English & Chinese - Identify gaps in the existing evidence base - Focus our project research questions - Publication of Protocol & Systematic Map
  14. 14. Fieldwork: General aims a. To evaluate, & provide input to improve the FEDRC’s system used to monitor & evaluate the program; identifying gaps in survey design, methods & analyses. b. To gain a better understanding of how the FEDRC data was collected (i.e. methods). c. Validate the data quality with on-the-ground observations & cross-checking surveys d. Collect additional data needed for our research project
  15. 15.  Six survey instruments were developed & tested in two FEDRC CCFP monitored counties during pilot fieldwork in Guangxi in November 2013.  The six survey instruments are: 1. Sloping land key informant survey. 2. County-level survey. 3. Administrative Village Leader Survey. 4. Enumerator survey. 5. Monitored household survey. 6. Household CCFP site inspection survey. Household CCFP land site inspection in Baoshang Village, Longlin County, Guangxi. Photo by Nick Hogarth Fieldwork: Guangxi pilot testing
  16. 16. Location of the FEDRC-CCFP monitored counties & pilot fieldwork sites, Guangxi Map by Wang Jiang
  17. 17. Dissemination, knowledge sharing  Promotion of the CCFP and the FEDRC-CIFOR work through international & domestic workshops (Beijing, Kunming)  Presentation of project results at international events: - “International Symposium on Forest & Landscape Restoration in Northeast Asia” 14-16 October, 2013, Beijing. - “Evaluating Forest Conservation initiatives: New tools and policy needs” 10-12 December, 2013, Barcelona. - “Forests Asia”, May 2014, Jakarta, Indonesia.  Translation & dissemination of key Chinese forestry documents - FEDRC 2013 Annual Report of Monitoring & Assessment of Socioeconomic impacts of key forestry programs  Media outreach: website, blogs, youtube etc.
  18. 18.  Expand the fieldwork program  Complete 4-province and national-level analyses  Expand the GIS/RS work  Multiple publications in both English & Chinese  Inform policy development  Expand the project beyond China: Lessons from China - Sloping Lands in Transition project (SLANT)  More funding, more personnel Next steps & project expansion
  19. 19. Thanks! Questions, comments?

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