Peter Holmgren, Director General, CIFOR
16 February, 2016
BURNING ISSUES: GLOBAL AND LOCAL
EFFECTS OF INDONESIAN HAZE

OUTLINE
• Fires: Past & Present
• Indonesian fires: Hotspots & Media
• Causes
• Facts and Effects
• Toward solutions

CIFOR WAS ESTABLISHED IN 1993
- AN INTERNATIONAL ORGANISATION WITH A GLOBAL REACH
CIFOR envisions a more equitable world
where forestry and landscapes
enhance the environment and
well-being for all

HUMAN RESOURCES
 240 staff representing dozens of countries
 Network of Associates, 77 MOUs with partner orgs

FORESTRY AND THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS

Fires
past and present

GLOBAL FIRES - JANUARY 2015

GLOBAL FIRES – SEPTEMBER 2015

FIRE MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLES
PREVENTION IS MUCH MORE EFFECTIVE THAN SUPPRESSION
• Appropriate use and management of fire will promote
sustainable livelihoods
• Human health and security will be improved by minimizing the
adverse effects of fire
• The traditional uses of fire should remain as a practice for those
communities and be adapted to the current environment
• The destructive impacts of unplanned fires on lives, property and
resources should be minimized, if not totally prevented
• The interactions of climate change with vegetation cover and fire
regimes should be understood and appropriately considered
• Fire should be managed to ensure properly functioning and
sustainable ecosystems
• All fire management activities should be based on a legal
framework and supported by clear policy and procedures
• Multistakeholder approach, International cooperation,
Knowledge transfer
Source: FAO 2006. www.fao.org/forestry

RECURRING FIRES…
2003 CIFOR publication
2002 ASEAN agreement1997-98 Fires, “planetary disaster”

Indonesian peat fires:
Hotspots
&
Media

INDICATIONS OF FIRE

WHAT ARE HOTSPOTS?
• Indications of fires from satellites
• Typically 1x1 km resolution
• Typically daily
• High probability but no certainty of
detecting fires
• Can not be used to estimate area
or intensity of fires
• Lower accuracy for less hot fires
(such as peat fires)
3 Oct 2015

3 OCTOBER 2015

WHY THE EMPHASIS ON INDONESIAN FIRES?
• Long-standing conflict in Indonesia between land development and
nature protection
– Conservation agenda vs. Development agenda
– Conflicts over land tenure and rights
• Climate change negotiations
– REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest
Degradation)
– Timing of the Paris conference in December 2015
• Peat fires make more smoke
– Singapore is located downwind
– More media attention

SIMPLIFIED STORIES OF HOTSPOTS AND CONCESSIONS
• Some reporting based only on
– Hotspots from satellites
– Plantation concession maps from Jakarta
• Simplified analyses
– Assumption that concession owners / corporations are the main culprits
and that plantations in general are bad
– Fuels a Northern environmentalism agenda
• Examples of headlines
– “613 hotspots found in pulpwood concessions within three weeks”
(EEPN 2012)
– “Palm oil companies must come clean on Indonesian fire hotspots”
(Greenpeace 2013)
– In a week Riau hotspots notches 1605 as 474 found in pulp
concessions (Eyes on the forest 2014)
– Illegal fires put 'sustainable' palm oil in the hot spot (EIA 2013)

FIRES INSIDE AND OUTSIDE CONCESSIONS

HOTSPOTS IN CONCESSIONS? NOT THAT SIMPLE.
Fires: by whom
and where
Inside concessions Outside
concessions
By “corporations” 25%
By “communities” 23%
Illegal at
federal/
national
level
Source: Gaveau et al. (draft) Who is responsible for Indonesia’s fires in
concessions? Satellites can mislead: Policy makers beware.
33% of
Concession
used by
commu-
nities
52%
One in-depth study of fire proponents, draft findings
=100% of
361,000 ha
burnt area
studied

SO HOW DID MEDIA REPORT?
• Add picture of kalimantan here (irresistible news)

NORTHERN HEADLINES WERE OFTEN ABOUT
CO2 EMISSIONS AND HABITATS
• How Indonesia's Fires Made it the Biggest Climate Polluter (Bloomberg 29
Oct)
• Southeast Asia's haze crisis: A 'crime against humanity’ (CNN 29 Oct)
• How to Save Indonesia’s Forests (NYT 23 Oct)
• Indonesian forest fires on track to emit more CO2 than UK (The Guardian 7
Oct)
• South East Asia haze: Orangutans at risk in Indonesia fires (BBC 19 Oct)
• Indonesia- Massive Fires and Carbon Emissions (Canada Free Press (19
Jan)
• Haze threatens Singapore Formula 1 race (BBC 16 Sep)
• With Latest Fires Crisis, Indonesia Surpasses Russia as World’s Fourth-
Largest Emitter (WRI 29 Oct)
• Indonesia’s Fire Outbreaks Producing More Daily Emissions than Entire
US Economy (WRI 16 Oct)

NEWS REPORTING FOR WHOSE AGENDA?

THE HUMANITARIAN ASPECTS
• Indonesia haze fueling major health problems (CNN 28 Oct)
• Scientists warn of health damage from Indonesia’s haze fires (Reuters 12 Nov)
• South East Asia haze: Deadly cost of Indonesia’s burning land
• Life under Indonesia’s choking haze (Al Jazeera 9 Dec)
• Don’t inhale: Scientists look at what the Indonesian haze is made of (CIFOR 21
Oct)
But what is the media interest today?
Searches on “haze”
nothing in Jakarta Post, since late October 2015
The Straits Times, one article about air travel refunding January 2016

LONGEVITY OF MEDIA INTEREST…

Causes.

EL NIÑO MAKES IT WORSE BUT SHOULD NOT BE BLAMED

ROOT CAUSES OF FIRE
1. The fires are man-made
– They are agriculture fires!
– Representing agriculture investments
– and local development aspirations
2. Mismatch between sector policies
3. Tenure and illegal land market
– Unclear land tenure and in-secure
concession areas
– Illegal land transactions
– Conflicts: Community vs. state vs.
corporate
4. Bad practices of agricultural and
plantation development
– Corporate/contractors/workers
– Communities
5. Land politics
• Patronage network between business
and government
• Land politics for local elections

Village head & officers
$88 (13%)
Land claimant
$29 (4%)
Tree cutting $77(12%)
Slashing $96 (14%)
Marketing team $38
(6%)
Total Benefit
Slash & cut
$665/ha
Organizer $338 (51%)
Insecure tenure: Illegal land market
Source: Purnomo et al. Fire Economy and
Network in Riau: An analytical approach

Village head & officers $88
(10%)
Land claimant,
$38 (4%)
Tree cutting $77 (9%)
Slashing $96 (11%)
Marketing team,
$54 (6%)
Total Benefit
$856/ha
Organizer $486 (57%)
Burning $15 (2%)
Farmer cheap/free land $2 (0.2%)
Fire provides
benefits to some
people
Source: Purnomo et al. Fire Economy and
Network in Riau: An analytical approach

Village head & officers
$88 (3%)
Land claimant,
$38 (1%)
Tree cutting
$77 (3%)
Slashing
$96 (3%)
Marketing team,
$54 (2%)
Total Benefit
$3,077/ha
Organizer
$1567 (51%)
Burning
$15 (1%)
Cheap/free land $2
(0.1%)
Oil Palm development
$992 (32%)
Oil palm growing wage
$147 (5%)
Three-year oil
palm
Source: Purnomo et al. Fire Economy and
Network in Riau: An analytical approach

PATRONAGE NETWORKS
Social network analysis: Local elites/cukong who organize
farmers are the most influential actors in land transactions.
Connected to Corporate actors.

Facts and Effects
(as we understand them now)

FIRE AND HAZE 2015
 2.6 million ha of land burnt and
$15-30 billions of economic
losses
 43 million people exposed to
haze
 ½ million victims of acute
respiratory infections
 19 people reported dead
 25,000 fire and security
personnel deployed to
suppress fires

ONE CALCULATION OF LOSSES AND GAINS –
CORRECT VALUATIONS?

TOXICITY
• CIFOR Scientists in Central
Kalimatan in October 2015
measuring toxicity
• Indonesia’s Meteorological Bureau
(BMKG) recorded record air
pollution levels of 2000 micrograms
per cubic meter (less than 30 is
healthy air)
• 200 micrograms per cubic meter in
Singapore for three days

TOXIC SMOKE FROM PEAT FIRES
The 2015 peat fires produced high concentrations of toxic carbon monoxide. Normal
concentrations are 100 parts per billion (ppbv), MOPPIT satellite measured in October
2015, CO concentrations >1,300 ppbv
Stevens and Allen NASA
CO poisoning include:
- Heart failure
- birth defects
Photo by Aulia Erlangga/ CIFOR

TOXIC SMOKE FROM PEAT FIRES
The 2015 peat fires produced unprecedented concentrations of Particulate Matter
(soot) in the air. Normal concentrations are 30µg m-3. BMKG measured concentrations
>500µg m-3 for two months, and peaks >2000µg m-3 for several weeks
Health effects include:
- lung cancer
- cardiovascular disease
- asthma
- birth defects.
Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika

Area Peat (ha) Non-peat (ha) Total %
Sumatra 267,974 565,025 832,999 40%
Kalimantan 319,386 487,431 806,817 39%
Papua 31,214 321,977 353,191 17%
Sulawesi 30,912 30,912 1%
Bali and Nusra 30,162 30,162 1%
Jawa 18,768 18,768 1%
Maluku 17,063 17,063 1%
618,574 1,471,338 2,089,912 100%
30% 70%
Hot spots, Oct 2015
(NASA 2015)
LAPAN, November 2nd 2015
Note that total area of Sumatra + Kalimantan
is 102 Mha, so about 2% were burnt in 2015.
Hotspot indications are visually exaggerated
SUMMARY OF AFFECTED AREAS

(84% on peat)
FIRES TARGET IDLE DRAINED PEAT LANDS
Gaveau et al. in review
Forest Cemetery in Riau: shrubs ands wood
debris: forest was cleared a few years prior
by massive illegal logging
Fire is a land clearing tool to expand
Oil palm agriculture in unproductive
areas

CALCULATING CO2 EMISSIONS FROM FOREST
CONVERSION TO OIL PALM PLANTATION
-
Flux change approach
11.8 ± 0.7 Mg CO2-eq ha-1yr-1, or
294 ± 18 Mg CO2-eq ha−1 over 25 yrs
Stock change approach
2221 ± 269 Mg CO2-eq ha-1
(maximum peat depth was 3 m)
Note:
 C losses from multiple fires during
land preparation are not included
 Net emissions from protected PSF
12 Mg CO2-eq ha-1 yr-1

ESTIMATED EMISSIONS
Source: http://www.globalfiredata.org/updates.html

Towards solutions

A “wicked” environmental problem because...
• No easy or technical solutions, especially on peatland
• Lack of evidence on which solutions would be most effective
• Hotly contested, political issue, multiple scales, sectors and actors

PEATLAND RESTORATION AGENCY
 Presidential Decree No.1/2016
 Reports to the President, supported by
cross-sectoral Technical Expert
Committee including:
 Provincial Governors
 Director-Generals from Ministries
of Environment & Forestry;
Agriculture; Agrarian & Spatial
Affairs; National Development
Planning; Coordinating Ministry of
Economic Affairs
 To restore 2 million hectares of
peatland by 2020 in Riau, Jambi,
South Sumatra, West Kalimantan,
Central Kalimantan, South Kalimantan
and Papua provinces

SOME REQUIRED OUTCOMES
Direct
 Drastically reduced
 Conversion of forests into agriculture
 Use of fire in agriculture
 Cultivation on peatland
 Improved
 Opportunities for sustainable rural livelihoods and income
Indirect
 Improved health
 Reduced losses for businesses across many sectors
 Reduced risks in food production
 Improved markets and value chains for sustainable products
 Reduced emissions of greenhouse gases

SOME POSSIBLE ACTIONS BEYOND RESTORATION
 Public investments (fiscal policies to address needs of rural people -
schooling, healthcare, job creation, incentives for non-fire agriculture),
 Engagement by banks and financial institutions to curb inappropriate
investments (Indonesia and abroad) by conditioning financial services,
 Deeper engagement with/by corporations active in large-scale land use,
 Easing bureaucracy and raising accountability of public institutions and
government,
 Reforms of land use policies and spatial planning to reduce commercial use
of peatlands,
 Targeted public awareness campaigns (education, TV, media, social
networks), to promote sustainable development perspectives, promotion of
alternative technologies/investments in agriculture, reforms of enforcement
practices

TAKE-HOME
• These are agriculture fires,
– they are man-made and
– keep coming back
• The attention span is short
• Impact on health and livelihoods are
the most serious
• Solutions must address a wide
spectrum of development issues
– and will take time

cifor.org
blog.cifor.org
ForestsTreesAgroforestry.org
THANK YOU
Acknowledgements to CIFOR staff:
…