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Assessing the role of climate in Indonesian fires, to better support Fire Management Interventions

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Presented by Rosa Roman-Cuesta, Hety Herawati, Victoria Ramenzoni at 'Understanding the role of climate in Indonesian fires, to better support fire management interventions' workshop, Jakarta, 25th July 2019

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Assessing the role of climate in Indonesian fires, to better support Fire Management Interventions

  1. 1. Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta (R.Roman-Cuesta@cgiar.org) Assessing the role of climate in Indonesian fires, to better support Fire Management Interventions Jakarta, 25th July 2019 Rosa Roman-Cuesta, Hety Herawati, Victoria Ramenzoni r.roman-cuesta@cgiar.org
  2. 2. Andela et al. (2017) Science FIRE IN THE TROPICS: Understanding, foreseeing and acting on future fire risk in tropical landscapes (1998-2015) (1998-2015) Ethiopia Indonesia Colombia
  3. 3. National Mitigation Target for 2030: 29% reduction of GHG from BAU (unconditional) with strong contribution from forest sector (FREL)  Forest and Peat fire prevention in fire-prone provinces Importance of Indonesian fires economic, ecologic and social impacts Great diversity of fire policies and FMIs after 2015 fire season: assessing the effectiveness of FMI in reducing fire Original question: How effective are existing Fire Management Interventions in reducing fire? Policies FMIs
  4. 4. Original question: How effective are existing Fire Management Interventions in reducing fire? X-FMI-TECHNICAL SOLUTION-2015 X-FMI-R&E-2016 X-FMI-INCENTIVE-2015 X-FMI-INSTITUTIONAL REFORM-2016 X-FMI-INCENTIVE-2017 X-FMI-TECHNICAL SOLUTION-2017 • Lack of geopositioned Fire Management Interventions Aggregate FMIs at district level • Aggregation problems: losing climate and land dynamics at district level
  5. 5. The role of climate as a mediator in Fire Management Interventions?
  6. 6. Some lessons from Californian fires 2018: 3.5 billion USD, 103 casualties, 8500 fires, 767K hectares burned
  7. 7. F Fire Management Interventions in the Californian borders and policy implications Minnich vs Kelly Southern-North California (US) Northern-South California (Mexico) Minnich (2001) Conservation Biology Low intensity high frequency fires High intensity low frequency fires FIRE SUPPRESSION-----> Higher fuel accumulation raises fire danger Chaparral patch mosaic (time since fire)
  8. 8. F Fire Management Interventions in the Californian borders and policy implications Southern-North California (US) Northern-South California (Mexico) Santa Ana winds Minnich vs Kelly Low intensity high frequency fires High intensity low frequency fires WIND----> Drought + Humidity -------- ------- > WEATHER drives fire severity. Fuel accumulation plays no role. FIRE SUPPRESSION-----> has not resulted in FIRE EXCLUSION More people on the region has risen fire risk Kelly (2001) Conservation Biology
  9. 9. F Fire Management Interventions in the Californian borders and policy implications Minnich vs Kelly Minnich (2001) Conservation Biology Santa Ana winds Fire suppression----- > Fuel accumulation BIG FIRE EVENTS Hazardous Weather (Wind, Humidity, Temperature) + People (ignitions) BIG FIRE EVENTS FIRE EXCLUSION—fire banning PRESCRIBED BURNING— increasing fire
  10. 10. F Implications of ‘the Minnich vs Kelly hypotheses’ for Indonesia • Policy selection (prescribed burning vs fire exclusion) has large consequences on BUDGET ALOCATION. • Weather can over-ride fire management interventions (e.g. prescribed burning) and waste large budgets and capacity building efforts. • Human presence (ignition) plays a major role in changing fire patterns. • The scalability of ecological conclusions is dangerous: FMI are tailored to local land dynamics.
  11. 11. Goals of the workshop 1. To share some advances/receive feedback of our on-going research on climate-fire reactivity in Indonesia 2. To offer an overview of fire situation (statistics and GHGs) 3. To present a list of FMIs and policy context and to receive feedback from the participants on missing FMIs in our database 4. To receive feedback from the audience on most effective FMIs in climate reactive areas: potentials and opportunities (SWOT)
  12. 12. Fire trends in Indonesia: climate and land cover dynamics
  13. 13. Fire regimes vs Fire trends The importance of scale to improve FMI effectiveness to reduce fire 30 rule (30km wind, 30 degrees temperature, <30% humidity) Sources Fire regimes  Frequency  Intensity  Severity  Size  Season  Pattern Fire risk Fire danger Humans, lightnings Fire regime
  14. 14. Source: David Gaveau
  15. 15. ENSO ENSO IOD + IOD + ENSO ENSO
  16. 16. Jolly et al. (2015) Nature Comm.
  17. 17. Burned area-Precipitation anomaly
  18. 18. Burned area-Temperature anomaly
  19. 19. Areas of high climate reactivity --FMI based on fire exclusion Areas of lower climate reactivity- FMIs based on prevention
  20. 20. Questions, comments, suggestions?
  21. 21. Fire trends (2001-2016)

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