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CARBON              DECISIONS              INTERNATIONALAdvances on the nested approach  and specific VCS methods for   un...
What does a country need to be             prepared for REDD +?                   Country XInternational                  ...
Distribution of the international incentives                    for REDD +      International incentives            for RE...
Distribution of the international incentives                       for REDD +         International incentives            ...
Distribution of the international incentives                       for REDD +         International incentives            ...
Nested Reference Emission Levels        in Guatemala and Peru          The national reference emission levelCountry   (REL...
Guatemala         5 sub-national regions                                     • 2 national            Northern            L...
Guatemala: Northern Lowlands                 CONAP-Forestry Concessions                     REDD+ InitiativeSierra delLaca...
Projection of the future deforestation rates  according to the VM0015 methodology  1-) Approach “A”: Mean annual historica...
Guatemala: Northern Lowlands     Land use land cover map 2000
Guatemala: Northern Lowlands     Land use land cover map 2007
Guatemala: Northern Lowlands     Land use land cover map 2010
Guatemala: Northern LowlandsTechnical limitations were found in theclassification of the images• Forest definition of the ...
Accuracy assessment for the land use and             land cover mapping        ¿How good are the classifications for the  ...
High deforestation rate                                                                  Historical                   Proj...
Projected deforestation rates with the                                     constraint analysis                        10,0...
Year 2010Projected deforestation
Year 2011Projected deforestation
Year 2012Projected deforestation
Year 2013Projected deforestation
Year 2014Projected deforestation
Year 2015Projected deforestation
Year 2016Projected deforestation
20Year 201717Projected deforestation
20Year 201817Projected deforestation
20Year 201917Projected deforestation
20Year 202017Projected deforestation
20Year 202117Projected deforestation
220Year 2022022Projected deforestation
220Year 2023022Projected deforestation
220Year 2024022Projected deforestation
220Year 2025022Projected deforestation
220Year 2026022Projected deforestation
220Year 2027022Projected deforestation
220Year 2028022Projected deforestation
220Year 2029022Projected deforestation
220Year 2030022Projected deforestation
Guatemala:Northern Lowlands   Carbon stocks                    • 812 existing plots.                    • 762 passed scree...
Carbon stock requirements• A carbon density map would be needed for the  jurisdictions, this would need to have consistenc...
Estimation of baseline carbon stock                                                 changes                            9.0...
Peru   • Diverse country:     deserts, dry forest,     rainforest, mountain     forest, paramo…   • ~68 Mha of forests:   ...
Peru   • Reference levels are being     established at the sub-     national level:       -   Madre de Dios (8.52 Mha)    ...
Peru: San Martin                                      Governance of the REDD+                                      readine...
Peru:San Martin             Forest cover             2000                No-Forest                Forest
Peru:San Martin             Forest cover             2007                No-Forest                Forest                De...
Peru:San Martin             Forest cover             2010                No-Forest                Forest                De...
Peru:San Martin    Carbon stocks             • 466 existing plots.             • 433 passed screening.             • Carbo...
Peru:                                 San Martin                  Deforestation                                           ...
Peru:San Martin Projected           deforestation               2010-2030
Projected                San Martín                             deforestation                             (Work in progres...
Projected                San Martín                             deforestation                             (Work in progres...
Lessons learned1. Nesting is a viable approach to create a consistent   framework of reference levels at multiple scales.2...
¡Thank you for your attention!                             C A R B ON CD                          D E C I SI ONS          ...
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Advances on the nested approach and specific VCS methods for unplanned deforestation

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Credible baseline setting and accurate and transparent Measurement, Reporting and Verification (MRV) of results are key conditions for successful REDD+ projects. In this presentation, Juan Felipe Villegas from Carbon Decisions International discusses the ‘jurisdictional nested approach’, how it will affect distribution of international incentives for REDD+, and how it can be used to create a framework of baseline emissions levels from deforestation at many scales, with sub-national regions in Guatemala and Peru as examples.

Juan Felipe gave this presentation on 9 March 2012 at a workshop organised by CIFOR, ‘Measurement, Reporting and Verification in Latin American REDD+ Projects’, held in Petropolis, Brazil. The workshop aimed to explore important advances, challenges, pitfalls, and innovations in REDD+ methods — thereby moving towards overcoming barriers to meeting MRV requirements at REDD+ project sites in two of the Amazon’s most important REDD+ candidate countries, Peru and Brazil. For further information about the workshop, please contact Shijo Joseph via s.joseph (at) cgiar.org

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Advances on the nested approach and specific VCS methods for unplanned deforestation

  1. 1. CARBON DECISIONS INTERNATIONALAdvances on the nested approach and specific VCS methods for unplanned deforestation Juan Felipe Villegas Álvaro Vallejo, Diego Navarrete,Lucio Pedroni Marlon Ortega, Peter SchlesingerMEASUREMENT, REPORTING AND VERIFICATION IN LATIN AMERICAN REDD+ PROJECTS A CIFOR WORKSHOP – MARCH 8-9, 2012 – PETRÓPOLIS, BRAZIL
  2. 2. What does a country need to be prepared for REDD +? Country XInternational NATIONAL REDD + PROGRAMREDD+ system (Forestlandia) REDD+ PROJECTS IN AREAS THAT ARE UNDER THE REDD+ NATIONAL GOVERNMENT National Mechanism JURISDICTIONS government UNFCCC SUB-NATIONAL REDD + Regulated PROJECTS schemes outside of Sub-National REDD+ PROJECTS IN AREAS UNFCCC governments THAT ARE UNDER THE SUB- NATIONAL GOVERNMET JURISDICTIONS Civil Society & Voluntary local markets REDD + PROJECTS IN PRIVATE communities AREAS
  3. 3. Distribution of the international incentives for REDD + International incentives for REDD+ 1 National government 4UNFCCC model: Sub-nationalIncentives will go to governments 6the centralgovernments 5(“Sub-national” =interim option). Projects
  4. 4. Distribution of the international incentives for REDD + International incentives for REDD+Voluntary marketsmodel 3 Projects
  5. 5. Distribution of the international incentives for REDD + International incentives for REDD+ 1 National“Nested Appraoch” government 4VCS: Jurisdictionaland Nested REDD 2 Sub-national 6Initiative (JNRI) governments 5 3 Projects
  6. 6. Nested Reference Emission Levels in Guatemala and Peru The national reference emission levelCountry (REL) is built from the regional RELs following a bottom-up approach. The “region” is the scale at which referenceRegion emission levels (RELs) are established. What is a “region” is determined by the country. At the local level, RELs are derived directlyProject from the regional REL following a top-down approach (“cookie cut” method).
  7. 7. Guatemala 5 sub-national regions • 2 national Northern Lowlands workshops to (4.12 Mha) Belize define the regions.Mexico • Each region has different agents and drivers. • A REL will be developed for each region. Honduras • The Northern Lowlands were chosen to develop El Salvador the first REL.
  8. 8. Guatemala: Northern Lowlands CONAP-Forestry Concessions REDD+ InitiativeSierra delLacandón REDD+Initiative Lachuá Ecoregion • Most of the remaining forest REDD+ Initiative is located in the Northern Lowlands. • Three sub-regional REDD+ initiatives are in preparation. They cover most of the remnant forest in the Northern Lowlands.
  9. 9. Projection of the future deforestation rates according to the VM0015 methodology 1-) Approach “A”: Mean annual historical deforestation rate The average mean annual deforested area during the historical referenced period is calculated and projected 2-)Approach “B”: Deforestation as function of time Deforestation is projected as a function of time when statistical relationships can be found 3-)Approach “C”: Deforestation as a function of some other variables. Deforestation could be projected using some other independent variables (Population, opportunity cost ,roads density) Project developers normally want to show aggressive models but data are not available and the criteria of the models are difficult to justify
  10. 10. Guatemala: Northern Lowlands Land use land cover map 2000
  11. 11. Guatemala: Northern Lowlands Land use land cover map 2007
  12. 12. Guatemala: Northern Lowlands Land use land cover map 2010
  13. 13. Guatemala: Northern LowlandsTechnical limitations were found in theclassification of the images• Forest definition of the country or the jurisdiction• Cloud cover• Creation of LU maps for the last year of the historical reference period can be problematic• Separation of heterogeneous carbon density land use classes is a challenge.
  14. 14. Accuracy assessment for the land use and land cover mapping ¿How good are the classifications for the historical reference period?A global accuracy of 92.49% was achieved and an accuracy of 86 % foreach of the classes. The requirements of the VCS methodology are 90 % for the overall accuracy and 80 % within the classes.
  15. 15. High deforestation rate Historical Projected 1 Stratum 2000-2007 2007-2010 2010-2020 2 See 1 0.58% 1.52% Increasing 3 below 2 5.17% 8.66% Historical average 6.23% 3 4.50% 5.30% Historical average 4.74% 16.000 14.000 STRATUM 1: .Area deforested (ha) Area (ha) = 1,227.05 * year - 2,450,993.30 12.000 R² = 0.77 . 10.000 8.000 6.000 4.000 2.000 0 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
  16. 16. Projected deforestation rates with the constraint analysis 10,00% 9,00% 8,00% 7,00% Deforestation rate 6,00% 5,00% Estratum 1:Approach "B" Estratum 2:Approach "A" 4,00% Estratum 3:Approach "A" 3,00% 2,00% 1,00% 0,00% 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 YearAccording to the JNRI ,Jurisdictions shall present a minimum of two potential baselines and shall justify the selected baseline
  17. 17. Year 2010Projected deforestation
  18. 18. Year 2011Projected deforestation
  19. 19. Year 2012Projected deforestation
  20. 20. Year 2013Projected deforestation
  21. 21. Year 2014Projected deforestation
  22. 22. Year 2015Projected deforestation
  23. 23. Year 2016Projected deforestation
  24. 24. 20Year 201717Projected deforestation
  25. 25. 20Year 201817Projected deforestation
  26. 26. 20Year 201917Projected deforestation
  27. 27. 20Year 202017Projected deforestation
  28. 28. 20Year 202117Projected deforestation
  29. 29. 220Year 2022022Projected deforestation
  30. 30. 220Year 2023022Projected deforestation
  31. 31. 220Year 2024022Projected deforestation
  32. 32. 220Year 2025022Projected deforestation
  33. 33. 220Year 2026022Projected deforestation
  34. 34. 220Year 2027022Projected deforestation
  35. 35. 220Year 2028022Projected deforestation
  36. 36. 220Year 2029022Projected deforestation
  37. 37. 220Year 2030022Projected deforestation
  38. 38. Guatemala:Northern Lowlands Carbon stocks • 812 existing plots. • 762 passed screening. • Carbon stocks in above- ground and below- ground tree biomass (CO2-e/ha): 356.8 ± 25.0 460.9 ± 9.4 501.2 ± 23.7 No-Forest Field measured plot
  39. 39. Carbon stock requirements• A carbon density map would be needed for the jurisdictions, this would need to have consistency at the national level as well.• Project developers need to have in mind that also carbon stock changes are methodological requirements.• Carbon data for different pools are not always available but it could economically attractive to collect them when financial analysis are done
  40. 40. Estimation of baseline carbon stock changes 9.000.000 8.000.000 7.000.000 6.000.000 Annual TCO2e emissions 5.000.000 4.000.000 3.000.000 2.000.000 1.000.000 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 YearEmissions were estimated considering above ground biomass, below ground biomass, dead wood and wood products for the CONAP- Forestry Concessions REDD+ Initiative
  41. 41. Peru • Diverse country: deserts, dry forest, rainforest, mountain forest, paramo… • ~68 Mha of forests: ranks 4th among high forest cover tropical countries.
  42. 42. Peru • Reference levels are being established at the sub- national level: - Madre de Dios (8.52 Mha) - San Martin (5.16 Mha) - Selva Central (10.36 Mha) - Cusco (6.60 Mha) • Almost 50% of forested areas are being covered (30.64 Ma). • 100% civil society funded. • Governments are participating. • More than 40 REDD+ projects in preparation.
  43. 43. Peru: San Martin Governance of the REDD+ readiness process: • Regional REDD+ roundtable: Regional gov. , National gov. (MINAM) Civil SocietyHow to deal with baselines at • 3 REDD+ initiativesdifferent scales occurring over thesame forest?
  44. 44. Peru:San Martin Forest cover 2000 No-Forest Forest
  45. 45. Peru:San Martin Forest cover 2007 No-Forest Forest Deforested 2000-2007
  46. 46. Peru:San Martin Forest cover 2010 No-Forest Forest Deforested 2000-2010
  47. 47. Peru:San Martin Carbon stocks • 466 existing plots. • 433 passed screening. • Carbon stocks in above- ground tree biomass (CO2-e/ha): 317.0 ± 12.8 267.2 ± 11.0 253.3 ± 53.5 261.4 ± 96.4 201.8 ± 78.7 Field measured plot
  48. 48. Peru: San Martin Deforestation projection • Stratification for projecting the rate. • Factor maps for projecting the location: - Distance to roads - Elevation - Slope - Distance to Historical rate Projected rateStratum 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2030 settlements 1 0.19% 0.23% Historical average 0.21% - etc. 2 0.19% 0.32% Historical average 0.25% 3 0.58% 0.65% Historical average 0.61% • Model calibration 4 0.23% 0.20% Historical average 0.22% using historical data.
  49. 49. Peru:San Martin Projected deforestation 2010-2030
  50. 50. Projected San Martín deforestation (Work in progress) 2010-2020Selva Central Madre de Dios Cusco
  51. 51. Projected San Martín deforestation (Work in progress) 2010-2030Selva Central Madre de Dios Cusco
  52. 52. Lessons learned1. Nesting is a viable approach to create a consistent framework of reference levels at multiple scales.2. Some level of standardization of the methods used to develop regional (subnational) RELs is necessary.3. Creating historical references has been more time consuming than expected (clouds!).4. Models are only as good as the data collected to develop them.5. The + of REDD (“Conservation”) is important: there are limitations in the capacity of models to capture the perceived deforestation threat.6. Sub-national REDD+ initiatives have a great potential to help building national REDD+ schemes, but there is a need for coordination to ensure consistency and transparency.
  53. 53. ¡Thank you for your attention! C A R B ON CD D E C I SI ONS I N T E R NAT I ONALAligning interests of local people,governments and investors to protectand restore tropical forest landscapes www.carbondecisions.com

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