The Implications of Climate Change on Mesoamerican Agriculture and Small-farmers Coffee Livelihoods Tropentag 7th of October, Hamburg, Germany Peter Laderach (CIAT) [email_address] Peter Laderach, Andy Jarvis, Julian Ramirez, Anton Eitzinger, Oriana Ovalle

THE FACTS

METHODOLOGY WorldClim (Hijmans et al, 2005) Climate (Current)

METHODOLOGY WorldClim (Hijmans et al, 2005) Climate (Current)

METHODOLOGY Climate (Future)

METHODOLOGY Variables

METHODOLOGY Crop Prediction Models MAXENT (Phillips et al. 2006) ECOCROP (Hijmans et al. 2005)

RESULTS

RESULTS

RESULTS

RESULTS Source: FAOSTATS Area Harvested (Ha) 219584 Mangifera indica L. Mango 15 9175222 Zea mays L. s. mays Maize 14 16756 Lactuca sativa var. capitata L. Lettuce 13 --- Andropogon gayanus Kunth Gamba 12 2119650 Phaseolus vulgaris L. Beans, dry 11 23001 Brassica oleraceae var. Botrytis Cabbages and other brassicas 10 59574 Allium cepa L. v cepa Onions, dry 9 1287388 Saccharum officinarum L. Sugarcane 8 82592 Theobroma cacao L. Cocoa beans 7 --- Brachiaria mutica Stapf. Brachiaria 6 207175 Musa acuminata Colla. Bananas 5 321764 Oriza sativa L. s. japonica Rice paddy 4 113414 Gossypium hirsutum L. Cotton, seed 3 19065 Agave sisalana americana Agaves Otras 2 189804 Elaeis guineensis Jacq. Oil palm 1 Scientific name Crops N Area Harvested (Ha) Scientific name Crops N 83054 Arachis hypogaea L. Maní con cáscara 16 422754 citrus Sinensis (L.) Osbeck Oranges 17 199595 Cocos nucifera L. Coconuts 18 90850 Solanum tuberosum L. Batata 19 26528 Carica papaya L. Papaya 20 66614 Ananas comosus Pineapples 21 57872 Musa balbisiana Colla Platains 22 --- Brassica oleraceae L.v capi. Repollo 23 104700 Sesamum indicum L. Sesame seed 24 78726 Glycine max Soybean 25 2026824 Sorghum bicolor L. Moench Sorghum 26 24713 Nicotiana tabacum L. Tabacco 27 130812 Lycopersicon esculentum M. Tomatoes 28 38322 Manihot sculenta Crantz. Cassava 29 17073 Daucus carota L. Carrot 30

RESULTS Crop prediction models

RESULTS

RESULTS

RESULTS

¡Muchas gracias! Peter Laderach (CIAT) [email_address]