Opportunities for decision support in the open data era
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Report
Science
Opportunities for Decision Support in the Open Data Era.
Dr. Charles Mckeown – Specialist, Agricultural Food and Resources Economics, Michigan State University.
Framing the challenges: when I'm
finished….
• The ocean will have risen 165.5 nano meters
• 17,126 metric tons of carbon will have been
emitted
• Slash and burn agriculture will increase by
24,026,484 M2
• 2,843 people will have moved from a rural area
to a city
• 4,000 new humans will join us
• To meet demand to 2030:
• Increase 15% yield/year
The Nature of the problems….
"Wicked problem" --- a problem that is
difficult or impossible to solve because of
incomplete, contradictory, and changing
requirements that are often difficult to
recognize. Moreover, because of complex
interdependencies, the effort to solve one
aspect of a wicked problem may reveal or
create other problems.
As problems have become more complex
so has the science of solutions.
Individu
als Teams Partners
hip
Interdisciplin
ary
Enterpri
se
The next evolution is networks of
problem solvers
• Nimble
• Responsive
• Integrative
• Collaborative
• Change Actors
• Risk Preferred
• Open
GCFSI activities focus on three megatrends (MT) and two cross-
cutting themes, build decision support tools and foster student
engagement
MT1: Population
Growth, Climate
Change and Pressure
on the Land
MT2: Rapid
Urbanization and
Transformation of
Food Systems
MT3: Evolution in
Skills Required by
Food Systems
Information and Communication Technology for Development
Gender
Global Center for
Food Systems Innovation
Core objectives for GCFSI:
1. Improve data quality and access and provide decision support tools to promote evidence-based decision
making in food systems.
2. Accelerate the creation, testing and scaling up of transformative innovations in global food systems.
3. Create a multidisciplinary network that shares knowledge, builds mutual capacity for food systems
innovation, and engages students to foster a new generation of development practitioners and scholars.
Decision Support & Informatics Knowledge Management Student Engagement
On January 5, 2015 GCFSI launched its second RFA for
innovation grants, with three levels of funding
• The RFA is open to universities, government or private laboratories or
research organizations, for-profit and non-profit companies, and even
individuals
• Grants process managed by CRDF Global (Washington, D.C.)
• Opportunity for USAID Mission input during application
review process
• Three types of grants (total approx. $3.2 million):
• Early Stage Innovation Grants (up to $100,000)
• Innovation Evaluation Grants (up to $250,000)
• Innovation Scalability Grants (up to $500,000 with 1:1 $
match required)
• Geographic focus:
• FTF Focus Countries: Bangladesh, Cambodia, Ethiopia,
Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Nepal, Rwanda, Tanzania,
Uganda, and Zambia
• STIP Focus Countries: Bangladesh, India, Indonesia,
Kenya, Mozambique, Philippines, Uganda
Decision Support and Informatics
Objectives
• Leverage data and analytics to promote and support
evidence-based food system policy and investments
• A systems analysis unit that will conceptualize problems, critically
evaluate complex systems and alternative approaches, and analyze
data to improve decision making.
• It will engage stakeholders and external partners to better define
development problems in order to understand the goals, objectives,
constraints, inputs, outcomes, and possible impacts.
• It will engage in relevant research to develop analysis and decision
support systems that will be essential for evaluating the economic,
social, and/or environmental dimensions of development problems.
Another core function of the Center is to offer Decision
Support and Informatics (DSI) services to USAID and
other stakeholders
DSI provides three major services: (1) easy one-stop Web access to many large development datasets, (2)
tools for Web-based visualization and data analysis, and (3) custom applications requested by users.
Hypothesis Verification
Map of Ag Storage Opportunities in Malawi
Spatial Visualization
Aid Density Heat Map, Tanzania
Research
Urbanization and Diet Transformation
1) Datasets include over 10,000 development and policy indicators,
drawn from sources such as World Bank, UN, FAO, university, and
USAID (e.g., FTFMS reporting data).
2) Tools for data mapping/visualization (including on USAID program
activities and impacts), and for basic statistical and trend analysis.
3) Provision of customized DSI applications, funded through GCFSI
core budget or user budget depending on the complexity of the
application.
Issues
• Big data and open data cant be ends in
themselves, they have to be kinetic
• The root of making them kinetic is only partially
addressed in open data systems and culture, but
to attach the big challenges we need 1,000,000
new users
• Strong collaborative networks are needed to
speed the adoption of open culture
• Open does not equal free, there are embedded
costs that have to be addressed
Opportunities
• Creating open and problem driven analytical
tools to increase data usage
• Working within networks to accelerate open and
evidence driven solutions
• Long term systems level analysis
• Three dimensional data analysis
• Risk assessment
• User centered design will be the next wave of
tool development
• Networks of institutions that look at problems
Square Brain Round Problem- Open cultures
and collaborative problem solving is not for
everyone-- yet
Editor's Notes
Remarks
This how Michigan State University is approaching to complex problems and resilient communities. MSU is building a global network of partners (universities, government agencies, corporations, small & medium enterprises, foundations, non-governmental organizations) & we are connecting with our partners’ networks.
We are building a network of networks. Across programs, across campuses and across communities
Background
Cross college, cross institutional, cross continental research & development work to bend the trends
Before we get to the real content I feel I need to warn everyone.
I Live with an English major so I am usually pretty good an translating geek to MFA but it may be a good time to find a nearby geek for translation
Kudos to Keenau Reeves for his uncanny acting skill, I could have sworn he really was confused the whole time
The one who serves as a mentor and trainer
And eventual engenue
He just couldn’t hack reality so a substitute was needed
A world filled with sentient machines intent on dominating the planet…
It creates the ultimate underdog story
And yes he does seem a bit puzzled most of the time
What elevates him to this stature?
Cause he could sit here and simultaneously digest multiple information streams and
He could interpret this stream of gibberish (I mean data) and provide the “heroes” with:
Deep background and contextual information
Resource allocation
Training
Real time intelligence
Quick vetting of solutions
Nearly instant information based strategy
Near real time decision support
That’s the hope in the big open data era!!!
All these functions are built on data and data access systems, so in our realm when we need information we can consult..
The UN Food and Agriculture Data Warehouse
COMSTAT for trade
The UN Environment program
The world Bank on Financials
The IMF for more financials
Data.gov for nearly everything the US government tracks in the public realm
Google helps get us filter but you better have advanced GOOGLE-FU
Even the NY phonebook has useful information
And we haven't even gotten to data gathered in space by the various satellite platforms
All this leads us to the understanding that if you know what you are looking for you can eventually find it, but it’s a long process and if you don’t know what your looking for data is largely useless.
To make use of data we need to
Collect
Filter
Standardize
Integrate
Democratize
This brings us past the data realm and into the realm of actual information
and information is the basis of:
Research
Analysis
Articulation
Pattern and process detection
Modeling
and information is the basis of:
Research
Analysis
Articulation
Pattern and process detection
Modeling
Of course knowledge for the sake of knowledge has value but its power to reshape peoples lives through innovation is only unlocked through:
Translation- Making sure its available to the necessary audiences, when I was working a lot with our legislature that used to mean “get it to the 9th grade level”
Creating knowledge flow-Making it broadly available with low transaction costs
Education-bringing people up to speed
Communication-Archimedes communicated his discovery of displacement by leaping out of the bathtub and running down the street to the palace shouting eureka! Not sure id try it today but it does get the point across
Internalization-you can lead a horse to water but you cant make it drink- to really have effect knowledge must be internalized in a way that compels action
All this sets the stage for..
Of course knowledge for the sake of knowledge has value but its power to reshape peoples lives through innovation is only unlocked through:
Translation- Making sure its available to the necessary audiences, when I was working a lot with our legislature that used to mean “get it to the 9th grade level”
Creating knowledge flow-Making it broadly available with low transaction costs
Education-bringing people up to speed
Communication-Archimedes communicated his discovery of displacement by leaping out of the bathtub and running down the street to the palace shouting eureka! Not sure id try it today but it does get the point across
Internalization-you can lead a horse to water but you cant make it drink- to really have effect knowledge must be internalized in a way that compels action
All this sets the stage for..
Decision making, and the kind of decision making that can transcend prejudice, that can be more than anecdotal, the kind that doesn’t rely on luck or on multiple failures to produce innovation.
As we think about our little blue ball, our impacts are supposedly only limited by our knowledge, and we are on the Verge of a new understanding.
I had a mentor who was a big data guy “If 20 years ago I had told him that nearly all the accumulated knowledge throughout history could be made accessible to everyone cheaply, even he would be skeptical
Furthermore, if I told him the most people would use this to watch video clips of cats playing piano he would have fired me.”
Now all the infrastructure he built back then is completely surpassed by this laptop, but our thinking has perhaps lagged behind the engineers.
So rethinking our tools and creating ways where they ignite innovation through networking and sharing provides a path to solving the grand challenges in development
If you will forgive another water metaphor---This is as traditional data and knowledge model.
Information is impounded behind barriers and allowed to trickle out through channels creating power for the holder of the black box
This is the data model that we need to pursue.
The Nile delta has thousands of connections and channels and the outcome was the cradle of civilization