Managua Targeting

884 views

Published on

Impact Pathways and Planning Meeting - Dual Purpose Cattle Value Chain

Published in: Technology
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
884
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
527
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
3
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Managua Targeting

  1. 1. Targeting sustainable interventions An Notenbaert, Tim Robinson, Mark Van Wijk Impact Pathways and Planning Meeting - Dual Purpose Cattle Value Chain Managua, 5-9 August
  2. 2. Targeting Outputs Sustainable interventions • Identified & targeted • In promising VCs (and sites) + tools and approaches Environmental impact Global context Prioritisation of interventions . Economically, socially & environmentally
  3. 3. Providing a global context - For action in the VCs - For identifying promising VCs What we’re aiming for - with CCAFS/CRP2: - projections of demand, supply, environmental indicators - Global dialogue around ASF nutrition security - Prioritisation framework
  4. 4. Prioritization of interventions A few approaches we’d like to test: - Extrapolate (contact: Tim Robinson) - Optimisation modeling (contact: Mark Van Wijk) - System Dynamic Modeling (lead by VCD theme) Slow track: systems analysis of detailed household data; systems optimization Fast track: PRA approaches; ex-ante analysis
  5. 5. Ex-ante tool for ranking (policy) alternatives • Designed for policy interventions (PPLPI) but equally applicable to technical and systems interventions • Simple PC-based programme • Promotes a participatory approach • Easy to use, well documented • User Guide • Reference Manual • Not data-intensive • Simple graphic output • Can evaluate combinations of interventions • Can be used at a range of levels 1. EXTRAPOLATE
  6. 6. EXTRAPOLATE1. EXTRAPOLATE
  7. 7. EXTRAPOLATE: Current situation1. EXTRAPOLATE
  8. 8. EXTRAPOLATE: Policy changes1. EXTRAPOLATE
  9. 9. EXTRAPOLATE1. EXTRAPOLATE
  10. 10. Dairy development policy: Uganda • Promote genetic improvement • Strengthen delivery of veterinary services • Provide appropriate extension services • Improved market infrastructure and information • Ensure quality control along the chain • Increase local consumption to build a strong domestic market • Promote efficiency in the input supply system • Increased access to credit facilities Proposed components of policy: 1. EXTRAPOLATE
  11. 11. EXTRAPOLATE – analysis tools Small-medium producers Pastoralists and agro-pastoralists Small processors & traders Poor consumers Wealthy producers/processors/consumers 1. EXTRAPOLATE
  12. 12. Promote genetic improvement Small-medium producers Pastoralists and agro-pastoralists 1. EXTRAPOLATE
  13. 13. Enforce quality control Small-medium producers Pastoralists and agro-pastoralists 1. EXTRAPOLATE
  14. 14. Optimal combination of policies1. EXTRAPOLATE
  15. 15. Key elements of a pro-poor policy • Promote genetic improvement • Strengthen delivery of veterinary services • Provide appropriate extension services • Improved market infrastructure and information • Ensure quality control along the chain • Increase local consumption to build a strong domestic market • Promote efficiency in the input supply system • Increased access to credit facilities 1. EXTRAPOLATE
  16. 16. Key elements of a pro-poor policy • This does NOT mean that genetic improvement and standards/regulation should be discouraged or dropped from the policy document • Rather that when these broad policy outcomes are disaggregated into their component parts (laws, strategies, institutions etc.) care needs to be taken to ensure that the poorer producers are not disadvantaged, and that their needs are also addressed 1. EXTRAPOLATE
  17. 17. 2. OPTIMISATION • Optimization of effect sizes through LP is a standard approach to do that • Trade offs between different indicators can be quantified • Drawbacks: – All effect sizes need to be quantified accurately – LP results in single solutions
  18. 18. • Therefore: take into account UNCERTAINTY of effects of interventions on system performance indicators • By sampling these uncertainty intervals you get – packages of interventions, rather than single optimal solutions – Insight in the robustness of the intervention you are proposing – Insight in key factors that need more accurate quantification 2. OPTIMISATION
  19. 19. Construct effect size table: based on literature values and expert knowledge Interventions Livestock Production (short term) Labour hours costs GHG emissions Short term Investment costs … 1 + 10% (stdev 8) +20% (stdev 15) +10% (stdev 5) +30% (stdev 10) 2 + 20% (stdev 5) +40% (stdev 15) +20% (stdev 7) +50% (stdev 20) … 3 … … … … … 4 … … … … … … … … … … …
  20. 20. Indicator 2 Indicator 1 Indicator 3 Indicator 2 Indicator 1 Indicator 3 Model Intervention 1 Intervention 1 Intervention 2
  21. 21. Indicator 2 Indicator 1 Indicator 3 Indicator 2 Indicator 1 Indicator 3 Model Intervention 2 Intervention 1 Intervention 2 And this you do very often (e.g. 1000s of times) to know the probability of choosing certain interventions 1. under which conditions; 2. with which objectives.
  22. 22. Model Climate Prices Farm characteristics Model parameters Uncertainty / Variation in Probabilities of decisions Probabilities of indicator outcomes Trade offs between indicators Thereby it is a simple and rough way of prioritizing
  23. 23. Prioritization of interventions All these approaches : - Based on constraints analysis and best-bet identification in VCs - Need for good data and knowledge from the VCs Short term: identify resource person Longer term: joint proposal development!
  24. 24. Environmental impact assessment Working on a framework for ex-ante environmental impact assessment of livestock and fish value chains: - Pilot study in Dairy VC in East-Africa (BMGF-funded) - Key dimensions: water, GHG, nutrients Need for bigger proposal development! …Flagship in phase 2
  25. 25. CGIAR is a global partnership that unites organizations engaged in research for a food secure future. The CGIAR Research Program on Livestock and Fish aims to increase the productivity of small-scale livestock and fish systems in sustainable ways, making meat, milk and fish more available and affordable across the developing world. CGIAR Research Program on Livestock and Fish livestockfish.cgiar.org

×