Geographic Information Systems to assess climate change impacts on crop biodiversity Julián Ramírez and Andy Jarvis Intern...
<ul><li>Climate change: why? where? when? </li></ul><ul><li>Impacts on crop management and suitability </li></ul><ul><li>I...
Climate change: why? where? When? <ul><li>When will climate begin changing? </li></ul>… It already began
 
 
Climate change: why? where? When? <ul><li>Why?:  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Population growth </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Expans...
Climate change: why? where? When? <ul><li>So, how do we know what WILL happen? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Global Climate Models...
Climate change: why? where? When? <ul><li>However, predictions involve uncertainty </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Emission scenario...
Climate change: why? where? When? <ul><ul><li>The 21 models show different pictures though </li></ul></ul>
 
Climate change: why? where? When? <ul><li>Where? Well… changes depend on geography </li></ul><ul><li>Everywhere warmer… bu...
Climate change: why? where? When? <ul><li>Where? Well… changes depend on geography </li></ul><ul><li>Everywhere warmer… bu...
Climate change impacts on crop suitability Banana niche modeling (EcoCrop)
Climate change impacts on crop suitability <ul><li>Are there winners and losers? </li></ul>2020 Cassava Maize 2050 Winners...
Suitability in Cauca (Colombia) <ul><li>Significant changes to 2020, drastic changes to 2050 </li></ul><ul><li>The Cauca c...
Climate change impacts on crop suitability <ul><li>Altitudinal shifts </li></ul>Coffee in Colombia Beans in Africa Rice in...
Climate change impacts on crop suitability Tetraploid bananas Triploid bananas
Impacts on major threats of crops: pests and diseases <ul><li>Insects become indicators of climatic changes (migration-ada...
Impacts on major threats of crops: pests and diseases <ul><li>Two cases </li></ul><ul><ul><li>ONE: Black Sigatoka and bana...
Impacts on major threats of crops: pests and diseases <ul><li>TWO: Cassava pests (niche modeling) </li></ul>Green Mite Whi...
Impacts on wild plant species
Impacts on wild plant species Arachis Vigna Conservation needs
Impacts on wild plant species –  in-situ  or  ex-situ  conservation? Migration of species Decadal climate change 2000 – 21...
Impacts on wild plant species <ul><li>Migrations: visualization for worldwide users </li></ul><ul><ul><li>When each of the...
Challenges and opportunities <ul><li>Now we know that climate is changing, and hence will depend on us to develop adaptati...
Challenges and opportunities <ul><li>G reater interdependence for agricultural biodiversity </li></ul><ul><li>Adapt techno...
Conclusions <ul><li>Successes and failures are expected, however, we must learn from past mistakes </li></ul><ul><li>We st...
THANKS!!! Contact:  [email_address] [email_address]
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Julian R - GIS To Assess The Impact Of Climate Change On Crop Biodiversity - World Congress On Conservation Agriculture, New Delhi (India)

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Presentation made by Julian Ramirez at the International Conference on Conservation Agriculture in New Delhi, India in February 2009.

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Julian R - GIS To Assess The Impact Of Climate Change On Crop Biodiversity - World Congress On Conservation Agriculture, New Delhi (India)

  1. 1. Geographic Information Systems to assess climate change impacts on crop biodiversity Julián Ramírez and Andy Jarvis International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT)
  2. 2. <ul><li>Climate change: why? where? when? </li></ul><ul><li>Impacts on crop management and suitability </li></ul><ul><li>Impacts on major threats of crops (P/D) </li></ul><ul><li>Impacts on wild plant species </li></ul><ul><li>Challenges and opportunities </li></ul>Contents
  3. 3. Climate change: why? where? When? <ul><li>When will climate begin changing? </li></ul>… It already began
  4. 6. Climate change: why? where? When? <ul><li>Why?: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Population growth </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Expansion of agriculture and industries </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Non environmentally friendly technologies </li></ul></ul>Greenhouse gases outbreaks RESULTED IN
  5. 7. Climate change: why? where? When? <ul><li>So, how do we know what WILL happen? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Global Climate Models (GCMs) use cell based atmospheric algorithms to simulate earth processes </li></ul></ul>… and produce future predictions based on historical measurements…
  6. 8. Climate change: why? where? When? <ul><li>However, predictions involve uncertainty </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Emission scenarios - Different models </li></ul></ul>
  7. 9. Climate change: why? where? When? <ul><ul><li>The 21 models show different pictures though </li></ul></ul>
  8. 11. Climate change: why? where? When? <ul><li>Where? Well… changes depend on geography </li></ul><ul><li>Everywhere warmer… but not necessarily drier </li></ul>
  9. 12. Climate change: why? where? When? <ul><li>Where? Well… changes depend on geography </li></ul><ul><li>Everywhere warmer… but not necessarily drier </li></ul>
  10. 13. Climate change impacts on crop suitability Banana niche modeling (EcoCrop)
  11. 14. Climate change impacts on crop suitability <ul><li>Are there winners and losers? </li></ul>2020 Cassava Maize 2050 Winners those who adapt quickest and most effectively
  12. 15. Suitability in Cauca (Colombia) <ul><li>Significant changes to 2020, drastic changes to 2050 </li></ul><ul><li>The Cauca case: reduced coffeee growing area and changes in geographic distribution. Some new opportunities. </li></ul>Site-specific agriculture is required for different zones (each zone could be a special case) Mid-altitude zones
  13. 16. Climate change impacts on crop suitability <ul><li>Altitudinal shifts </li></ul>Coffee in Colombia Beans in Africa Rice in Asia
  14. 17. Climate change impacts on crop suitability Tetraploid bananas Triploid bananas
  15. 18. Impacts on major threats of crops: pests and diseases <ul><li>Insects become indicators of climatic changes (migration-adaptation) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Moth in mount Kinabalu (Borneo) have moved upwards trying to “follow” their climates </li></ul></ul>(I-Ching Chen et al, 2009) Evidence of migration due to climatic changes
  16. 19. Impacts on major threats of crops: pests and diseases <ul><li>Two cases </li></ul><ul><ul><li>ONE: Black Sigatoka and banana </li></ul></ul>Climatic likelihood
  17. 20. Impacts on major threats of crops: pests and diseases <ul><li>TWO: Cassava pests (niche modeling) </li></ul>Green Mite Whitefly
  18. 21. Impacts on wild plant species
  19. 22. Impacts on wild plant species Arachis Vigna Conservation needs
  20. 23. Impacts on wild plant species – in-situ or ex-situ conservation? Migration of species Decadal climate change 2000 – 2100, one GCM Trajectories of wild populations to “follow” their climate Two parameters: Max. migration rate Plasticity
  21. 24. Impacts on wild plant species <ul><li>Migrations: visualization for worldwide users </li></ul><ul><ul><li>When each of the specimens die? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>How much does each specimen need to move to survive? </li></ul></ul>
  22. 25. Challenges and opportunities <ul><li>Now we know that climate is changing, and hence will depend on us to develop adaptations </li></ul><ul><li>Wild relatives to become endangered, however, novel traits may become available for crop breeding </li></ul>Millets Potato Wheat Potential in dry areas Potential in specific altitude zones Low evidence of traits
  23. 26. Challenges and opportunities <ul><li>G reater interdependence for agricultural biodiversity </li></ul><ul><li>Adapt technologies to different areas and r ight decisions at the right time are needed: migration, management, crop shifts </li></ul><ul><li>Agro-ecosystems need to be resilient to changes </li></ul><ul><li>Cover the whole picture and not only a part of it </li></ul><ul><li>Crop breeding is a fundamental issue to be addressed (priorities by crop and zone) </li></ul>
  24. 27. Conclusions <ul><li>Successes and failures are expected, however, we must learn from past mistakes </li></ul><ul><li>We still don’t know what will happen in certain zones, so, more research is needed </li></ul><ul><li>Insects migrations are first page indicators of changes in agricultural landscapes </li></ul>
  25. 28. THANKS!!! Contact: [email_address] [email_address]

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