The Global Rice Supply and
Demand Outlook
Samarendu Mohanty
Head, Social Sciences Division
International Rice R
I t ti l Ri Research I tit t
h Institute

Outline
• Current happenings in the global rice
market
– What can we expect in the next few months?
• Medium- to long-term supply and demand
situation
– How much we need and who will produce it?
• Concluding remarks

Crop Prices (CBOT)
Wheat Corn
50% 35%
Cotton
40%
Chart Source: http://futures
tradingcharts.com/

Thai 5% Broken Rice Price
(May 2008 to August 2010)
US$/t (fob)
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
Feb-10
May-10
Aug-10
May-08
Aug-08
Nov-08
Feb-09
May-09
Aug-09
Nov-09
Source of raw data: The Pinksheet, World Bank

Global Rice Production
000 MT
480,000
450,000
420,000
390,000
360,000
330,000
300,000
00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11
10/11*
Data Source: PSD, USDA (Accessed on Sept. 11, 2010

Global Rice Inventory
Million T
Milli Tons
160
140
China
Chi India
I di Vietnam
Vi t Thailand
Th il d RoW
R W
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Data Source: PSD, USDA (Accessed on Sept. 11, 2010

2010 Global Rice Production
Million Tons
470
465
460
455
450
445
440
435
430
Aug-2010
g Sept-2010
Source: WASDE, USDA

Pakistan Rice Production
000 MT
7,000
,
6,000
5,000
5 000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11*
10/11
Data Source: PSD, USDA (Accessed on Sept. 11, 2010

Pakistan Exports in 2010/11?
000 MT
7,000
,
6,000
5,000
5 000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11

Other Uncertainties for Standing
Rice Crop
Ri C
• Drought and Flood in China: Expected to
lower 2010 production by 5 percent
• La Niña in Southeast Asia
• Droughts in India’s East and Northeast
India s
and floods in few northern states.
– On average 3-4 million hectares of crop area
34
is lost to flood annually.

Rice Price in a Consolidation Zone
(Oct.
(Oct 08 to August 2010)
US$/t (fob)
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
Feb-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Oct-08
Dec-08
Feb-09
April-09
Jun-09
Aug-09
Oct-09
Dec-09
Source of raw data: The Pinksheet, World Bank

Wheat vs Rice Prices
US$/t (fob)
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
Aug‐05
Dec‐05
Apr‐06
Aug‐06
Dec‐06
Apr‐07
Aug‐07
Dec‐07
April‐08
Aug‐08
Dec‐08
April‐09
Aug‐09
Dec‐09
Apr‐10
Aug‐10
Thai 5%
Thai 5% HRW@Gulf
Source of raw data: The Pinksheet, World Bank and USDA

Near Term Outlook
• Some strengthening of rice prices
prices.
• Further rise in wheat prices are likely to
put additional pressure on rice
rice.
• Dry season rice acreage may be affected
by higher h t
b hi h wheat, corn and cotton prices.
d tt i

Medium
Medium- to Long Term Perspective
Long-Term
• How much we need?
• Who will produce it?

Rice Consumption vs Income
g/yr)
180
nsumption per capita (kg
1961-2005
140
Japan
p
Korea
100
Con
60
20
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000
Per capita income (US$)
p ( )

Per capita consumption vs. per capita GDP at 2000 US$ (1990,2000,2005)
180
Vietnam
160
Bangladesh
Rice consumption per capita (kg/yr)
140
Indonesia
120
Thailand
100 Philippines
Malaysia
80
China
India
I di
60
40
20
0
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000
Per capita income (2000 US$)

Rice Consumption by Income Group

Per capita Monthly Rice Consumption in
Vietnam: U b vs R l
Vi t Urban Rural
Kilograms
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1992 1997 2002 2004 2006
Urban Rural

SSA Per Capita Rice Consumption
Kilograms
25
20
15
10
5
0
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010

Per Capita Rice Consumption
(World-Asia-SSA)
Kilograms
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
61
64
67
70
73
76
79
82
85
88
91
94
97
00
03
06
09
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
Data Source: USDA, FAO

Global Rice Production Increases Needed to Meet Demand by 2035
y
Million tons milled rice
600
550
Additional rice needed:
116 million tons by 2035
500
450
400
2010 global rice production
350
300
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
33
35
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Asia
A i Africa
Af i Americas
A i Rest f World
R t of W ld

Global Rice Supply:
Area vs Yield
Percent 000 Ha
Area
Consumption Growth
Yield Growth
*These numbers are calculated based on 10‐year Moving Average

Paddy Yields (
y (Average 05/06-08/09)
g )
Tonnes/Ha
Asian Countries African Countries
Data Source: FAOSTAT

Breeding and management for CA
systems
Multi-location screening of NT-DSR
R. Mugaloda & CSISA collaborators
On-farm evaluation in CSISA Hubs
M. Mazid, NW Bangladesh Hub

Nutrient management decision tools for
extension workers and farmers
Released:
Philippines, Indonesia,
Philippines Indonesia
Zhejiang (PRC)
Pipeline:
Bangladesh
India (T.N., W.B.)
Sri Lanka
SiL k
Vietnam
Guangdong (PRC)
W. Africa
Wheat: NW India
Maize: Bangladesh
R. Buresh (IRRI), NARS and private sector collaborators

Postharvest management
Quality,
Quality
Water,
Labor
Laser leveling Min Combine transfer
Physical loss: 12-25%
Market info Loss at market: up to 50%
Drying system
Farmers don’t value add transfer
Farmers’ seeds
Quality tools
y
Rice mill improvement Super bags

Sub Saharan
Sub-Saharan Africa Rice
Million Tons Million Tons
Data Source: USDA

Concluding Remarks
• Short-Term Outlook:
Short Term
– Some strengthening of rice prices.
– Further rise in wheat prices are likely to put
additional pressure on rice.
– High wheat, corn and cotton prices should also
wheat
affect the dry season rice area.
• 2020 outlook:
– Need to produce additional 57 million tons of
milled rice
rice.
– Further area expansion is highly unlikely.
– Required yield growth of 1 5% as compared to
1.5%
0.8% in the baseline.

Concluding Remarks
• 2035 outlook:
– Significant decline in consumption growth
beyond 2020.
• Only 50 million tons of additional rice by 2035
– Rice acreage is likely to decline.
– Best bet: Yield needs to grow between 1-1.2
percent