Global Futures and
Strategic Foresight
CIAT, Cali
24 February 2014

Objectives
• Enhance a coordinated suite of biophysical and
economic models
• Strengthen capacity and build a community of
practice for ex ante impact assessment
• Assess potential returns to a range of possible
technologies and investments under alternative
global futures

Overview
• Global Futures Phase 1 (2010 – 2013)
• Funding from BMGF and CCAFS
• IFPRI, CIAT, CIMMYT, CIP, ICRISAT, IRRI; ICRAF, ILRI
• Global Futures and Strategic Foresight Phase 2
(2013 – 2016)
• Funding from BMGF, CCAFS and PIM
• Joined by ICARDA, IITA, IWMI and WorldFish

Modeling climate impacts on
agriculture
Source: Nelson et al., PNAS (2013)

AgMIP climate scenarios to
2050
Source: Nelson et al., PNAS (2013)

The role of agricultural
technologies
Source: IFPRI (2014)
• Baseline to
2050, including climate
change
• Linked crop models and
economic models
• Assessed 11
technologies for
maize, rice and wheat
• Impacts on
prices, yields, risk of
hunger

IMPACT – Una Red de
Modulos
• Módulos Actuales
• Modelo Económico
• Producción de Cultivos
• Producción Ganadero
• Producción de productos procesados
• Modelos Hídricos
• Modelos de Nutrición
• Modelo de análisis de beneficio y costo
• Futuros módulos:
• Agropecuario
• Mejorado Producción ganadero
• Módulo de biocombustibles
7

Producción Demanda y Precios
Producción
Prices
Demanda
• Crecimiento exogeno
• Precios del productos
• Gastos de producción
• Equilibra demanda y
producción
• Ingresos
• Precios
• Población
8

Geografía en IMPACT
159
154
320
• Países
• Cuencas
• Unidades de
Producción
Agraria

Producción y Demanda
• 56 cultivos
• Producción
• Comercio
• Consumo
• Demanda desagregado
por país y posiblemente por tipo de consumidor (i.e.
urbano-rural, rico-pobre)
10

Actividades y Productos – La cadena de
producción
Actividad Prima
Producto
• Produce
algun
producto
• Se vende en
el Mercado
Actividad
Procesador
Productos
procesados
• Demanda
productos
• Produce
nuevos
productos
procesados
• Soybean Oil
(csbol)
• Soybean
Meal
(csbml)
11

Ag R&D Cycle
Clayuca
FLAR
Policy
Recommendations &
strategies
Cassava,
Beans, Rice,
Forages
Problem
identification
Intervention
Priority setting
Cassava, Be
ans, Rice
Foresight &
ex-ante eval
Outputs, Outcomes
Impacts
M&E, review
(Ex-post evaluation)

Global Futures & Strategic
Foresight at CIAT
Technologies
DELPHI Process
(
y)
(
DSSAT,
Biophysical
models
y)
Shocks
Priority setting
New technologies
Strategies, policies
Dalys, Env
Services, Gender
issues, other
( y, P )
IMPACT
Model
Multicriteria
Analysis
Socio-economic model

Global Futures & Strategic
Foresight at CIAT
Technologies
(
y)
(
DSSAT,
Biophysical
models
y)
Shocks
Priority setting
New technologies
Strategies, policies
• DSSAT: Participated in
DELPHI Process
various workshops and
meetings (including AgMip)
Dalys, Env
Services,
• Set up of a working High Gender
issues,
Performance Cluster for other
crop modeling
∆y, ∆P
• Data collection, calibration
of cultivars (beans)
• Following the revamping of
cassava model
IMPACT
Model
• Data collection:
management practices
Multicriteria
Analysis
Socio-economic model

Global Futures & Strategic
Foresight at CIAT
• Expert surveys to detect
Technologies
constraints: Cassava, rice
• Future: expert survey for
DSSAT, Biop
hysical
beans, expert consultation
for forages models
• Multicriteria surveys to
Shocks
stakeholders: Cassava, rice
• Foresight workshops for
agriculture in LAC
Priority setting
New technologies
Strategies, policies
DELPHI Process
Dalys, Env
Services, Gender
issues, other
∆y, ∆P
IMPACT
Model
Multicriteria
Analysis
Socio-economic model

Global Futures & Strategic
Foresight at CIAT
• minor participation in the
Technologies
elaboration of the new IMPACT
• Run a few models, Biop ones:
DSSAT, main
hysical
• Herbicide tolerant Cassava
models
• Biological control of mealybug
• Subutilized
• Future work: Shocks
• Analyze new technologies
• Model for LAC
• Model commodity markets:
Priority setting
Cassva and beans
New technologies
Strategies, policies
DELPHI Process
Dalys, Env
Services, Gender
issues, other
∆y, ∆P
IMPACT
Model
Multicriteria
Analysis
Socio-economic model

Global Futures & Strategic
Foresight at CIAT
Technologies
DSSAT,
Biophysical
models
Shocks
Priority setting
New technologies
Strategies, policies
• RTB CRP ps project
• SetDELPHI Process
priorities for:
rice, beans, forages Dalys, Env
• Analyze and keep Services, Gender
track of
issues, other
changes in major trends and
drivers
∆y, ∆P for CIAT Commodities /
in LAC
• Strategic foresight for main
crops: multidisciplinary
committees
IMPACT
Model
Multicriteria
Analysis
Socio-economic model

Opportunities GFSF & CIAT
• Internal:
• Priority setting for crop groups: support for R&D agenda
• Identifying opportunities and risks
• Linking research to impacts: donors
• CGIAR level
• Increase communication among centers and CRPs
• Help setting credible IDOs & Outcomes
• Policy making
• Scenario based global modeling: support decision making
• Work with NARs in strategic planning