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Global Futures and Strategic Foresight

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Global Futures and Strategic Foresight

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Global Futures and Strategic Foresight

  1. 1. Global Futures and Strategic Foresight CIAT, Cali 24 February 2014
  2. 2. Objectives • Enhance a coordinated suite of biophysical and economic models • Strengthen capacity and build a community of practice for ex ante impact assessment • Assess potential returns to a range of possible technologies and investments under alternative global futures
  3. 3. Overview • Global Futures Phase 1 (2010 – 2013) • Funding from BMGF and CCAFS • IFPRI, CIAT, CIMMYT, CIP, ICRISAT, IRRI; ICRAF, ILRI • Global Futures and Strategic Foresight Phase 2 (2013 – 2016) • Funding from BMGF, CCAFS and PIM • Joined by ICARDA, IITA, IWMI and WorldFish
  4. 4. Modeling climate impacts on agriculture Source: Nelson et al., PNAS (2013)
  5. 5. AgMIP climate scenarios to 2050 Source: Nelson et al., PNAS (2013)
  6. 6. The role of agricultural technologies Source: IFPRI (2014) • Baseline to 2050, including climate change • Linked crop models and economic models • Assessed 11 technologies for maize, rice and wheat • Impacts on prices, yields, risk of hunger
  7. 7. IMPACT – Una Red de Modulos • Módulos Actuales • Modelo Económico • Producción de Cultivos • Producción Ganadero • Producción de productos procesados • Modelos Hídricos • Modelos de Nutrición • Modelo de análisis de beneficio y costo • Futuros módulos: • Agropecuario • Mejorado Producción ganadero • Módulo de biocombustibles 7
  8. 8. Producción Demanda y Precios Producción Prices Demanda • Crecimiento exogeno • Precios del productos • Gastos de producción • Equilibra demanda y producción • Ingresos • Precios • Población 8
  9. 9. Geografía en IMPACT 159 154 320 • Países • Cuencas • Unidades de Producción Agraria
  10. 10. Producción y Demanda • 56 cultivos • Producción • Comercio • Consumo • Demanda desagregado por país y posiblemente por tipo de consumidor (i.e. urbano-rural, rico-pobre) 10
  11. 11. Actividades y Productos – La cadena de producción Actividad Prima Producto • Produce algun producto • Se vende en el Mercado Actividad Procesador Productos procesados • Demanda productos • Produce nuevos productos procesados • Soybean Oil (csbol) • Soybean Meal (csbml) 11
  12. 12. Ag R&D Cycle Clayuca FLAR Policy Recommendations & strategies Cassava, Beans, Rice, Forages Problem identification Intervention Priority setting Cassava, Be ans, Rice Foresight & ex-ante eval Outputs, Outcomes Impacts M&E, review (Ex-post evaluation)
  13. 13. Global Futures & Strategic Foresight at CIAT Technologies DELPHI Process ( y) ( DSSAT, Biophysical models y) Shocks Priority setting New technologies Strategies, policies Dalys, Env Services, Gender issues, other ( y, P ) IMPACT Model Multicriteria Analysis Socio-economic model
  14. 14. Global Futures & Strategic Foresight at CIAT Technologies ( y) ( DSSAT, Biophysical models y) Shocks Priority setting New technologies Strategies, policies • DSSAT: Participated in DELPHI Process various workshops and meetings (including AgMip) Dalys, Env Services, • Set up of a working High Gender issues, Performance Cluster for other crop modeling ∆y, ∆P • Data collection, calibration of cultivars (beans) • Following the revamping of cassava model IMPACT Model • Data collection: management practices Multicriteria Analysis Socio-economic model
  15. 15. Global Futures & Strategic Foresight at CIAT • Expert surveys to detect Technologies constraints: Cassava, rice • Future: expert survey for DSSAT, Biop hysical beans, expert consultation for forages models • Multicriteria surveys to Shocks stakeholders: Cassava, rice • Foresight workshops for agriculture in LAC Priority setting New technologies Strategies, policies DELPHI Process Dalys, Env Services, Gender issues, other ∆y, ∆P IMPACT Model Multicriteria Analysis Socio-economic model
  16. 16. Global Futures & Strategic Foresight at CIAT • minor participation in the Technologies elaboration of the new IMPACT • Run a few models, Biop ones: DSSAT, main hysical • Herbicide tolerant Cassava models • Biological control of mealybug • Subutilized • Future work: Shocks • Analyze new technologies • Model for LAC • Model commodity markets: Priority setting Cassva and beans New technologies Strategies, policies DELPHI Process Dalys, Env Services, Gender issues, other ∆y, ∆P IMPACT Model Multicriteria Analysis Socio-economic model
  17. 17. Global Futures & Strategic Foresight at CIAT Technologies DSSAT, Biophysical models Shocks Priority setting New technologies Strategies, policies • RTB CRP ps project • SetDELPHI Process priorities for: rice, beans, forages Dalys, Env • Analyze and keep Services, Gender track of issues, other changes in major trends and drivers ∆y, ∆P for CIAT Commodities / in LAC • Strategic foresight for main crops: multidisciplinary committees IMPACT Model Multicriteria Analysis Socio-economic model
  18. 18. Opportunities GFSF & CIAT • Internal: • Priority setting for crop groups: support for R&D agenda • Identifying opportunities and risks • Linking research to impacts: donors • CGIAR level • Increase communication among centers and CRPs • Help setting credible IDOs & Outcomes • Policy making • Scenario based global modeling: support decision making • Work with NARs in strategic planning

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