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The future of coffee farmers’ livelihoods and your
daily coffee
                        Peter Läderach¹, Anton Eitzinger¹,...
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Poster48: The future of coffee farmers'livelihoods and your daily coffee


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Poster48: The future of coffee farmers'livelihoods and your daily coffee

  1. 1. The future of coffee farmers’ livelihoods and your daily coffee Peter Läderach¹, Anton Eitzinger¹, Mark Lundy¹, Andy Jarvis¹, Julian Ramirez¹ and Emiliano Pérez-Portilla² ¹ International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Managua, Nicaragua and Cali, Colombia ²CRUO- Universidad Autónoma Chapingo, Mexico The Problem According to the fourth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report is Mesoamerica one of the regions that will suffer severe impacts from a progressively changing climate. Coffee production is the mainstay of thousands of families and the major contributor to the agricultural GDP of these countries. Decisions makers need to know where and how climate change will impact in order to make informed strategic decisions for the future. The Solution We have used Maxent to predict and quantify the changes in coffee suitability in Nicaragua and CaNaSTA to predict and quantify the changes in coffee beverage quality in Veracruz, Mexico. The Results Nicaragua Veracruz MAXENT results indicate an important decrease in the suitability of In Veracruz the analyses focused on the sensorial attribute of acidity of coffee-producing areas in Nicaragua by 2050. the brewed coffee, which together with aroma is the most important attribute that distinguishes Veracruz coffee. The denomination of There is a general pattern of origin of Veracruz coffee is built on these two characteristics. decreases in the area suitable for CaNaSTA predicts that by 2050 the coffee and a decrease in suitability areas with higher suitability will within these areas. Suitability for decrease drastically and the highly coffee will move upwards on the suitable areas for the acidity altitudinal gradient with climate characteristic will move towards change, with lower-altitude areas higher altitudes (Map Veracruz). losing suitability the most (Map Nicaragua). As climate change progresses, areas at higher altitudes will The optimum coffee-producing become suitable for producing zone in Nicaragua is currently at high-acidity coffee. Between today an altitude of elevation between and 2050 areas at altitudes 800 and 1400 masl; by 2050 the between 900 masl and 1500 masl optimum elevation will increase to will suffer the highest decrease in 1200 and 1600 masl. As the suitability while the areas above suitable altitude increases less and 1800 masl will have the highest less land area to produce coffee increase in suitability (Graph will be available (Graph Veracruz). Nicaragua). Conclusions Due to the long lead-time of perennial cropping systems and the complexity of global supply chains for coffee, it is urgent to identify appropriate adaptation strategies. These strategies must operate locally but be connected with the global supply chain. CIAT is currently working with the private sector, the academia and 7000 farmers in Central America on chain inclusive adaptation strategies ( Current climate: Data of more than 46.000 meteorological stations METHODOLOGY was used. (Hijmans et al., 2005; Future climate: 18 downscaled Global Circulation Models (GCM) and the A2a emission scenario (business as usual) was used. Maxent: A general-purpose method for making predictions or inferences from incomplete data sets. (Phillips et al., 2006; CaNaSTA: Employs Bayesian statistics and is particularly useful for analysis of highly specialized or underutilized crops. CaNaSTA performs particularly well with limited data points. (O’Brien, 2004) Data points: In Nicaragua we used close to 5.000 data points from coffee farms and in Veracruz more than 100 data points and additionally sensorial beverage quality assessments of each farms coffee.