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Geographic priorities for research and development on dryland cereals and legumes (DCL)

  1. Geographic priorities for research and development on dryland cereals and legumes (DCL) Glenn Hyman1, Elizabeth Barona2, Chandrashekhar Biradar3, Edward Guevara1, John Dixon4, Steve Beebe1, Silvia Elena Castano1, Tunrayo Alabi5, Murali Krishna Gumma6, Shoba Sivasankar6, Ovidio Rivera1, Herlin Espinosa1, Jorge Cardona1 1International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Cali, Colombia 2Independent Researcher, Miami, USA 3International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA), Amman, Jordan 4Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research, Canberra, Australia 5International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA), Ibadan, Nigeria 6International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT), Patancheru, India eAtlasDCL.cgiar.org
  2. 2 Introduction • Maps, geography and spatial analysis are increasingly important for developing R&D programs, priority setting, monitoring, impacts assessment and reporting. • But the community of researchers working on this topics has perhaps been less organized to carry out this type of work. • This initiative propose to develop an online Atlas for R&D among the DCL community with focus on Geo-spatial Science, Technology and Applications (GeSTA).
  3. 3 The DCL eAtlas www.eatlasdcl.cgiar.org
  4. 4 The DCL eAtlas www.eatlasdcl.cgiar.org
  5. 5 Methodology Data sources • CGIAR center GIS/Geo- informatics labs • Public domain • FAO farming systems Spatial analysis • Remote sensing and GIS • Spatial overlay Determining priority regions • Overlay of DCL crop distributions with FAO farming systems • Analysis of biotic, abiotic, socioeconomic and management conditions by farming system. Spatial overlays, zonal/geostats
  6. 6 Scripts, documentation and data all available online and cloud Methodology
  7. Results Major drylands farming systems and crop and regional dominance
  8. Results • Three farming systems in South Asia – rainfed mixed, rice-wheat and dry rainfed – make up about one third of the 162 million ha of DCL crops in the 18 priority farming systems • A second important region is Sub-Saharan Africa, where the cereal- root crop mixed system accounts for 21.3 million ha, the agro- pastoral millet sorghum system accounts for 18.6 million ha, the pastoral system accounts for 10.8 million ha and the maize mixed system has 7.6 million ha • In Eastern Europe and Central Asia more than 15 million ha are cultivated, with barley figuring prominently. • In East Asia over 22 million ha are cultivated, with groundnut and soybean as the predominant crops. Major drylands farming systems and crop and regional dominance
  9. 9 The farming systems where dryland cereals and grain legumes are concentrated are particularly prone to high temperatures and drought and crop stress. Results Abiotic and biotic stress climate change and extreme events
  10. These dryland systems, especially those with less than 1000 mm of annual precipitation, tend to have a higher probability of drought or a failed season, when precipitation does not meet crop requirements. There is a general tendency of the drier farming systems having higher expected temperature changes between now and future climate scenarios (2050) and further decrease in precipitation Results Abiotic and biotic stress climate change and extreme events
  11. The soils of DCL priority farming systems present a number of abiotic constraints to DCL crop production. Results Abiotic and biotic stress climate change and extreme events
  12. The key DCL farming systems are home to about one third of the global population, including an enormous number of people living in poverty. Results Population and poverty
  13. Potential additions to DCL Atlas Platform - higher resolutions (space and time) - crop types and granularity; - similarity mapping and out scaling; - tracking adoption of technologies; - niche modelling and predictions; - yield gap mapping across the scales - carry out genotype-by-environment analysis; - land potential for investment and implementation - Phase2 development and way forward …
  14. 14 Level5_mod250_2014_lulc_15cls.img 01.Rainfed-DC Maize/mixed crops 02.Rainfed-SC Maize/sorghum 03.Rainfed-SC tef, sorghum, Maize 04.Rainfee-SC-tef/wheat,barly 05.Rainfed mixed Crops 06.Irrigated-SC-sugarcane-VLS 07.Irrigated_mixedcrops 08.Rainfed_Rice 09.Rangeland/fallow 10.Range lands/Shrublands 11.Shrublands/Wasteland tress 12.Barenlands/Sanddunes 13.Forest 14.Waterbodies 15.Builtup Mapping crop land areas. e.g., South Asia e.g., Ethiopia Gumma et al., 2016. ICRISAT Crop types, pattern and phenology
  15. Tracking of technological adoption Adoption of water harvesting structures, in Andra Pradesh Ahmed, I. et al., 2016. ICRISAT Biradar, et al., 2015. ICARDA Adoption of conservation agriculture (zero tillage) in Morocco
  16. 16 Adoption of Chickpea Districts Area (ha) MODIS-2000 MODIS-2005 Modis-2012 Anantapur 34777 51304 84493 Cuddapah 30343 69258 117903 Kurnool 68113 140511 196793 Prakasam 35129 128288 159524 168362 389361 558713 Links image analysis to field surveys Gumma et al., 2016. ICRISAT Tracking of technological adoption
  17. Source: Glenn, CIAT Niche modelling and distribution
  18. 18 Near real-time farm analytics at pixel to landscape scales March December National>State>District>Tehsil>Block>Village >Farm>Polygon/Point/Pixel Cropping System Crop Intensity Crop Calendar Crop Rotation Cropped Area Fallow Dynamics -Fallow area -Duration -Start date -End date Yield Potential -Current -Achievable Suitable Crop/Variety -Legumes -Oil Seeds Soils Soil Health (SHC) Soil Moisture (SMAP) Water use Evapotranspiration Allocation/Irri. Sch. Markets -ePlatform -Ag Supply Chain -Access (I/O) Monitoring -Pest/Diseases -Crop Stress Citizen Science Crop Intensification & Diversification
  19. 10% 26% 20% 15% 10% 7% 5% 6% 1% 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 <0.5 0.5-1 1-1.5 1.5-2 2- 2.5 2.5-3 3.5-4 4.5-5 >5 Area(mha)Millions Grain Yield (kg/ha, '1000) Agricultural Productivity, Production and Dynamics Biradar, et al., 2016
  20. 10% 26% 20% 15% 10% 7% 5% 6% 1% 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 <0.5 0.5-1 1-1.5 1.5-2 2- 2.5 2.5-3 3.5-4 4.5-5 >5 Area(mha)Millions Grain Yield (kg/ha, '1000) 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 12% 6% 4% 3% 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 <0.5 0.5-1 1-1.5 1.5-2 2- 2.5 2.5-3 3.5-4 4.5-5 >5 Area(mha)Millions Grain Yield (kg/ha, '1000) 1% 6% 5% 7% 10% 15% 20% 26% 10% 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 <0.5 0.5-1 1-1.5 1.5-2 2- 2.5 2.5-3 3.5-4 4.5-5 >5 Area(mha)Millions Grain Yield (kg/ha, '1000) 10% 15% 20% 26% 10% 7% 5% 6% 1% 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 <0.5 0.5-1 1-1.5 1.5-2 2- 2.5 2.5-3 3.5-4 4.5-5 >5 Area(mha)Millions Grain Yield (kg/ha, '1000) Current: 0% Gain 32 m tons S-2 : 5% Gain 35 m tons S-1 : 72% Gain 61 m tons S-3 : 18% Gain 40 m tons Location specific Investment, Interventions and Impacts S=Scenarios Biradar, et al., 2016*
  21. 21 Thank Youc.biradar@cgiar.org avoid the unmanageable and manage the unavoidable -IPCC Confronting Climate Change: in an inch of land and bunch of crop
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