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Decision and Policy Analysis Program

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Presentation by Andy Jarvis for the CIAT KSW 2009

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Decision and Policy Analysis Program

  1. 1. Decision and Policy Analysis Program
  2. 2. Our vision <ul><li>We strongly believe in the power of information for making better decisions about agricultural and natural resource investments, from the farm- to the global- level . </li></ul><ul><li>Numbers. Maps. Graphs. Insights. </li></ul>
  3. 3. Our modus operandi <ul><li>Thematically diverse, united by spatial, economic and institutional analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Converting data to information to policy and decision insights </li></ul><ul><li>Demand-driven by other CIAT programs and partners needs in Latin America </li></ul><ul><li>Eco-efficiency as a guiding principle </li></ul>
  4. 4. Our team <ul><li>6-8 IRS </li></ul><ul><li>15 NRS </li></ul><ul><li>Many students (north and south) </li></ul><ul><li>Major presence in Latin America </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Cali </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Belem </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Nicaragua </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Andy Farrow, our man in Africa </li></ul><ul><li>Asia being run from Cali for now…. </li></ul>2008 US$5.9m, 2009 – less
  5. 5. Our themes <ul><li>Output 1: Impact assessment for targeting , documenting and increasing the effectiveness of research and development </li></ul><ul><li>Output 2: Policy guidelines, tools and innovations for managing ecosystem services to the benefit of the rural poor </li></ul><ul><li>Output 3: Estimated impacts of climate change on agricultural systems, and identification of adaptation pathways for the rural poor </li></ul><ul><li>Output 4: Policy guidelines and innovations to ensure pro-poor and equitable supply chains in the face of a highly dynamic world </li></ul>
  6. 6. Impact assessment and targetting <ul><li>Institutional house for impact assessment: coordination of studies, critical mass of economists and analysts to address the issue of quantifying and communicating our impact </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Larger-scale, multi-country, and beyond adoption </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Impact mapping: where and how to work? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>For research and development </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Facilitating Impact Team (FIT): methods for maximising our impact </li></ul><ul><li>Innovation platforms for IAR4D (SSA-CP) </li></ul>
  7. 7. Targeting Cassava Pest and Disease Problems Climate change Environment Characterization
  8. 8. DAPA in Africa: Tropical Legumes II <ul><ul><li>Targeting and impact assessment </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Drought-tolerant variety development </li></ul></ul>Sustainable seed production and distribution systems
  9. 9. Facilitating Impact Team (FIT) <ul><li>To improve the engagement processes and socialization mechanisms of CIAT’s research with their stakeholders throughout the project cycle and contribute to scaling out and up of research outputs. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Increase the effectiveness of research and development activities through the use of knowledge sharing principles, tools, methods and monitoring methodologies. </li></ul></ul>
  10. 10. Ecosystem services <ul><li>Very focussed on externalities </li></ul><ul><li>ES that have a national, regional or international market </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Aboveground carbon </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Water </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Putting the numbers on ES flows </li></ul><ul><li>Enabling the poor to engage and benefit from emerging ES market opportunities </li></ul>
  11. 11. The numbers behind a Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES) Scheme Agua y sedimentos producidos en Chingaza Fuente: Ciat, 2007, Estudio contratado por TNC, EAAB, Patrimonio Natural & Parques
  12. 12. Resultados ECOSAUT Opportunity Costs through economic modelling
  13. 13. Social and economic benefits for the rural poor
  14. 14. Where to invest for environmental AND social benefits (eco-efficiency) <ul><li>Áreas prioritarias de inversión </li></ul>Mayores Menores Fuentes de sedimentos Áreas prioritarias con ahorros potenciales de tratamiento agua Área prioritaria sin ahorros potenciales de tratamiento agua
  15. 15. Opportunity costs of REDD in threatened Brazilian Amazon forests B örner et al. (submitted), Amazon Initiative (CIAT, CIFOR, ICRAF)
  16. 16. Opportunity costs of REDD in threatened Brazilian Amazon forests B örner et al. (submitted), Amazon Initiative (CIAT, CIFOR, ICRAF)
  17. 17. Potential equity effects of different REDD payment scenarios by tenure category B örner et al. (submitted), Amazon Initiative (CIAT, CIFOR, ICRAF) Tradeoffs: Maximum environmental benefit at cost of rural smallholder poor?
  18. 18. Climate change <ul><li>Putting the numbers on impact: locally, regionally and globally </li></ul><ul><li>Identifying adaptation pathways </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Practices </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Policies </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Technologies </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Evaluating adaptation measures through scenario analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Influencing policy through clear messages delivered to the right people </li></ul><ul><li>For CIAT internally, and externally (development partners, NARs, ministries, international fora) </li></ul>
  19. 19. Change in global suitability
  20. 20. COFFEE SUITABILITY COFFEE: 14.3% of GDP in Nicaragua, 2006.
  21. 21. COFFEE SUITABILITY
  22. 22. BIG markets and BIG market opportunities <ul><li>What public and private policies and organisational arrangements are needed for the poor to benefit from international markets in a globalised world? </li></ul><ul><li>Effective and sustained farm to market links require three components: </li></ul><ul><li>Farmers that are attractive partners for market actors </li></ul><ul><li>Market actors willing to invest in working with small producers </li></ul><ul><li>An effective enabling environment to support / govern these links </li></ul>
  23. 23. Science for impact: Linking Farmers to Markets New business models for sustained trading relationships
  24. 24. The last word…. <ul><li>Our knowledge of our crops is tacit, which is a barrier to us getting numbers to support commodity decisions. This needs to change. </li></ul><ul><li>Markets: where and who? Latin American, global? Friday discussion… </li></ul><ul><li>Impact assessment weak, but strengthening. Will need collaboration from all in changing this. </li></ul>

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