Climate change Knowledge Sharing Week May 2009

El clima esta cambiando, no me diga que no

Sources of Agricultural Greenhouse Gases excluding land use change Mt CO2-eq Source: Cool farming: Climate impacts of agriculture and mitigation potential, Greenpeace, 07 January 2008

El pasado y el presente – El “hockey stick”

El arctico esta descongelando

Y que dicen los modelos?

What do the 21 models say? The world gets warmer

… .and wetter, but not everywhere

Incertidumbre

Incertidumbre

Colombia y el mundo en cambio climático Colombia Mundo +4.5ºC +14% +3.1ºC +8.1%

Ecocrop approach

Current Cassava Suitability Gmin: 150, Gmax: 365. KTmp : 0, Tmin:15, TOPmn:24, TOPmx: 32, Tmax: 45. Rmin: 300, ROPmn: 850, ROPmx: 1500, Rmax: 2000.

Gmin: 150, Gmax: 365. KTmp : 0, Tmin:15, TOPmn:24, TOPmx: 32, Tmax: 45. Rmin: 300, ROPmn: 850, ROPmx: 1500, Rmax: 2000. Future Cassava Suitability (2020)

Gmin: 150, Gmax: 365. KTmp : 0, Tmin:15, TOPmn:24, TOPmx: 32, Tmax: 45. Rmin: 300, ROPmn: 850, ROPmx: 1500, Rmax: 2000. Change in Cassava Suitability

TECHNOLOGY OPTION: +2-3 o C HEAT TOLERANCE Only India benefits from heat tolerance. This is a national strategy for technology development. CIAT’s strategy probably better placed in pests/diseases.

Changes in adaptability in Green Mite 2020

Change in adaptability of Whitefly 2020

Arachis pintoi Krap.& Greg. Gmin: 180, Gmax: 300 KTmp: 0, Tmin: 12, TOPmn: 22, TOPmx: 28, Tmax: 30 Rmax: 1600, ROPmn: 1800, ROPmx:2000, Rmax: 3000

Clitoria ternatea L. Gmin: 50, Gmax: 365 KTmp: -2, Tmin: 15, TOPmn: 19, TOPmx: 28, Tmax: 32 Rmax: 400, ROPmn: 1200, ROPmx:1800, Rmax: 4300

Leucaena leucocephala (La.) Gmin: 180, Gmax: 365 KTmp: 0, Tmin: 10, TOPmn: 20, TOPmx: 32, Tmax: 42 Rmax: 250, ROPmn: 600, ROPmx: 3000, Rmax: 5000

Brachearia x hybrid Gmin: 120, Gmax: 365 KTmp: 0, Tmin: 20, TOPmn: 24, TOPmx: 30, Tmax: 35 Rmax: 800, ROPmn: 1200, ROPmx:1800, Rmax: 3000

The geography of crop suitability

Change in global suitability

Number of crops that lose out

Number of crops that gain

Cassava and maize in Africa and India – not all bad news

Differential response in maize

COFFEE SUITABILITY COFFEE: 14.3% of GDP in Nicaragua, 2006.

COFFEE SUITABILITY

COFFEE ACIDITY SUITABILITY

COFFEE ACIDITY SUITABILITY

ADAPTATION STRATEGIES 1. Areas not anymore suitable for coffee (alternatives) 2. Areas only suitable with adapted management (varieties, irrigation, shade, etc) 3. New potential areas (expand where viable and possible)

IMPLICATIONS ON SUPPLY CHAIN 1. Shortage of commodity coffee and high value coffee 2. Possible increase in prices and income for supply chain actors 3. Change in sourcing areas and channels 4. Possible loss of product reputation (Denomination of Origin in Veracruz)

Adaptive management across the supply chain FARM MARKET Short-cycle high investment cash crops Perennial long-term high investment system