The Historical Climate Trends product* provides a comparative seasonal or annual analysis for a specified climate division or state. Long term averages are taken from NCDC's monthly and annual temperature and rainfall datasets. These long term averages are depicted in each chart as a horizontal line in the middle of the chart.
This graph shows time series of the extreme precipitation index (using a 5‐year running average) for the southeastern USA for the occurrence of 1‐day, 1 in 5 year extreme precipitation events (red) and 5‐day, 1 in 5 year events (blue).
A2 SCENARIO, ENSEMBLE OF GCMS1990 days over 95 min-max: 5.98-11.092040 days over 95 min-max: 15.295-23.202070 days over 95 min-max: 37.89-49.59
A2 SCENARIO, ENSEMBLE OF GCMS1990 50 yr 24 rainfall min-max: 4.829 to 7.466 in2040 50yr 24hr rainfall min-max: 4.899 to 7.585 in2070 50yr 24hr rainfall min-max: 4.968 to 7.712 in
A2 SCENARIO, ENSEMBLE OF GCMS1990 100 yr 24 rainfall min-max: 5.076 to 8.471 in2040 100yr 24hr rainfall min-max: 5.158 to 8.639 in2070 100yr 24hr rainfall min-max: 5.241 to 8.817 in
Module 1: Welcome and IntroductionsAGENDA & WORKSHOP GOALS
Why put Adaptation in the RTP?• Transportation projects in the RTP will need to withstand climate stressors• The transportation network produced by the RTP will need to provide redundancy of routes for extreme weather events• Overlap with other sections of RTP – Maintenance/State of Good Repair – Safety/Security• Adaptation strategies contribute to Goals and Objectives of the 2040 RTP
Region to Region Community to Region Within Community Goal: GROW ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY THROUGH STRATEGIC INVESTMENT IN CRITICAL REGIONAL Goal: CONNECT COMMUNITIES TO INFRASTRUCTURE OPPORTUNITIES IN THE REGION BY Goal: BUILD AND MAINTAIN SAFE AND PROVIDING MULTIMODAL TRAVEL Objectives: HEALTHY COMMUNITIES OPTIONS TO ACTIVITY AND ECONOMIC CENTERS • Preserve, maintain and improve existing infrastructure before Objectives: adding new capacity2040 RTP • Support walkable and bicycle-friendly Objectives: • Preserve, maintain and improve • Support continued economic communities that promote safe, non-Draft Goals motorized connections to community existing infrastructure before adding growth of the region by improving intermodal connections that reduce new capacityand resources • Provide incentives for complete streets • Provide incentives for complete delay for both people and goods streets project design • Reduce delay on critical regionalObjectives project design • Encourage corridor improvements thoroughfares with minimal impact • Encourage investments anchored in to community, historic and anchored in integrated integrated transportation and land use environmental resources transportation and land use planning, that support desired • Improve the efficiency and planning, that support desired community character reliability of freight, cargo and community character • Improve safety through improved goods movement by reducing delay • Improve mobility and support operations, preventative maintenance, on corridors critical to freight economic development by providing and ADA compliance movement expanded set of travel options, with • Prioritize investments in areas where • Improve travel time reliability emphasis on public transit local land use and development through improved system • Improve travel time reliability regulations support healthy, safe operations through improved system communities operations • Prioritize investment that improves • Incentive corridor protection plans multimodal access to existing or planned transit hubs or that fills gaps in existing multimodal system Note: Draft goals and objectives recently endorsed by TCC with • Encourage connected street network small modifications. To be presented to TPO Board on Oct. 16
Module 2: Extreme WeatherTHE PAST AND PRESENT: WEATHER INTHE CHATTANOOGA REGION
Extreme Events in the Southeast• Heavy Rainfall and Floods• Extreme Heat and Cold• Droughts• Winter Storms• Thunderstorms and Tornadoes• A Note: Climate vs. WeatherSource: Southeast Region Technical Report to the National Climate Assessment
SE Regional Climate Observations• Climate variability has increased across much of the region – more exceptionally wet and dry summers compared to the middle part of the 20th century• Increases in extreme precipitation, along with urbanization, has increased runoff, increasing risk of flash and river flooding• Since 1970s, temperatures have steadily increased, especially during the summer season – 2001-2010 is the warmest decade on record – Upward trend in extreme events over past 3 decadesSource: Southeast Region Technical Report to the National Climate Assessment
SE Precipitation VariabilitySouthern Climate Impacts Planning Program (SCIPP) Historic Climate Trends, NCDC data
SE Extreme Precipitation Trends 1-day 20% chance 5-day 20% chance • Frequency of extreme precipitation increasing in the SESource: Southeast Region Technical Report to the National Climate Assessment
Chattanooga Extreme Precip Depicts 10-year rainfall events or greater only• 4 extreme events since 1977 within NOAA-estimated 50 year average recurrence interval (the 50-year 24 hr event)• 2011 rainfall event exceeds top range for 1000-year event Data: GHCN Daily Lovell AP; Recurrence intervals: NOAA Atlas 14, Volume 2, Version 3
SE Temperature Variability* Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program (SCIPP) Historic Climate Trends, NCDC data
Chattanooga Extreme Temp 60 50 40 Days >= 95 F 30 20 10 0 1928 1938 1948 1958 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008 # Days >= 95F Avg. Days >=95F 5 per. Mov. Avg. (# Days >= 95F) Data: GHCN Daily Lovell AP
$ Billion Weather Disasters, 1980-2005• Since 1980, the SE US has experienced more billion‐dollar weather disasters than any other region in the country
Disaster Declarations by Decade• Declarations on the rise in TN and GASource: Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program (SCIPP)
Chattanooga Disaster Declarations • Hamilton County, TN, regionally unique in susceptibility to flooding • All counties vulnerable to severe storm events Source: FEMA
Declared Disasters, 2000-2012* Year Incidents Season 2003 SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, AND FLOODING Spring 2004 SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING Fall 2011 SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, AND FLOODING Spring SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, STRAIGHT-LINE 2011 Spring WINDS, AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING *Hamilton County. Source: FEMA.
Flood of 2003 (1/3)• Heaviest rains in McMinn County (12+ in) from May 5-8• In Chattanooga: – Peak 24 hour rain fall in 2-year recurrence range – Peak 4 day rainfall in 50-year recurrence range• Record flooding on the South Chickamauga Creek• Near (modern) record flooding on the Tennessee RiverSource: National Weather Service, Morristown , TN
400 2010 CO2 Concentration: 390 380 After 35 more years at the current rate of increase 360 340 320 300 280 260 CO2 (ppmv) 240 220 200 180 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 Age (years BP)Source: National Climatic Data Center/NOAA
2012 Statement of AMS (1/3)• American Meteorological Society• Based on the peer-reviewed scientific literature• Warming of the climate system now is unequivocal, according to many different kinds of evidence• The effects of this warming are especially evident in the planet’s polar regions• Most of the world’s glaciers are in retreat• Globally averaged sea level has risen by about 17 cm (7 inches) in the 20th century, with the rise accelerating since the early 1990s
2012 Statement of AMS (2/3)• Very heavy precipitation events have increased over the last 50 years throughout the U.S.• Freezing levels are rising in elevation, with rain occurring more frequently instead of snow at mid-elevations of western mountains• Spring maximum snowpack is decreasing, snowmelt occurs earlier, and the spring runoff that supplies over two-thirds of western U.S. streamflow is reduced.• Earlier springs, longer frost-free periods, longer growing seasons, and shifts in natural habitats and in migratory patterns of birds and insects
2012 Statement of AMS (3/3)• Climate is always changing• Many of the observed changes are beyond what can be explained by the natural variability of the climate• Dominant cause of the rapid change in climate of the past half century is human-induced increases in the amount of atmospheric greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide (CO2), chlorofluorocarbons, methane, and nitrous oxide
General Circulation Models (GCMs) •GCMs represent physical processes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryo sphere and land surface •3-D grids over the globe, 250-600km, 10-20 vertical layers, up to 30 ocean layers •May be statistically downscaled to consider regional scale impactsSource and image credit: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
July Avg. Temps (2010-60, A1B) Source: Shepherd and Mote, U of Georgia
Change in Heavy Precip EventsSource: Southeast Region Technical Report to the National Climate Assessment
Module 4b: Climate Change BackgroundPOTENTIAL FUTURE EXTREMES IN THECHATTANOOGA REGION
Extreme Temperatures (>95°) Projected Number of Days 95 F or above 60 50 40 BLNumber of Days/Yr B1_2040 A1B_2040 30 A2_2040 B1_2070 20 A1B_2070 A2_2070 10 0 DAYTON 2SE CLEVELAND FLTR PLT CHATTANOOGA AP DALTON BRIDGEPORT 5 NW
Extreme Temperature (>100°) Projected Number of Days 100 F or above 16 14 12 BLNumber of Days/Yr 10 B1_2040 A1B_2040 8 A2_2040 6 B1_2070 A1B_2070 4 A2_2070 2 0 DAYTON 2SE CLEVELAND FLTR PLT CHATTANOOGA AP DALTON BRIDGEPORT 5 NW
Days Above 95F Less than 15 15 - 20 20 - 25 25 - 30 30 - 35 35 - 40 40 - 45 45 - 50 41
Extreme Precipitation (50-year)•Only minor change of absolute amounts (e.g., only about 3% maximumincrease for Chattanooga AP)•Return periods of today’s 50-year event likely to shrink (on average every 42-45years)
24hr (daily) Rainfall Total (in) Less than 5.50 5.51 - 6.00 6.01 - 6.50 6.51 - 7.00 7.01 - 7.50 7.51 - 8.00 8.01 - 8.50 Above 8.50 43
Extreme Precipitation (100-year)•Only minor change of absolute amounts (e.g., only about 3.3% maximumincrease for Chattanooga AP)•Return periods of today’s 100-year event likely to shrink (on average every 82-87 years)•Conservative case: Using a full range of GCMs adds ¼ inch/24-hours in 2070(recurrence interval of 66 years for today’s event)•By 2100, the high range adds > ½ inch/24-hours, recurrence interval is 52.5 yrs
24hr (daily) Rainfall Total (in) Less than 5.50 5.51 - 6.00 6.01 - 6.50 6.51 - 7.00 7.01 - 7.50 7.51 - 8.00 8.01 - 8.50 Above 8.50 45
Module 4: Assessing What is At Risk and How to AdaptTRANSPORTATION RESILIENCY
Discussion Areas• Survey of climate impacts on various transportation assets by mode – what are the consequences? – Framework for understanding categories of impact – Documented impacts from the literature• Determining timeframes, risks and consequences – Lifespan of assets – Climate hazard protection windows• Introducing adaptation
Impacts from Extreme Weather• RoadwaysSource: Travis Long / The News & Observer via AP; Steve Taylor Sheriffs Dept 48
Impacts from Extreme Weather• BridgesSource: WSDOT; Police Lieutenant Mickey Garner, in Nashville
Categories of Impact • No impact, either infrastructure was able to withstandNO IMPACT impact, or climate stressor did not affect the asset • Temporary closure of facility DISRUPT • Over time, a facility is affected by more frequent occurrencesDETERIOR- of extreme events and asset begins to deteriorate ATION • The facility was unable to withstand impact, and is damagedDAMAGE 50
Impacts from Extreme Weather• TransitSource: Nashville MTA; US Volpe Center 51
Impacts from Extreme Weather• Marine Facilities, Freight and IntermodalSource: George Hornal, TDOT 52
Impacts from Extreme Weather• AirportsSource: George Hornal, TDOT ; NYCAviation.com 53
Exercise: Climate Impacts• What impacts from extreme weather and potential future climate do you face? – A heavy rainfall event can result in flooding (sometimes from culverts and bridges being blocked with debris), erosion, rock falls, and scour around bridgeheads and footings. If you were experiencing severe flood conditions, what would your biggest concerns be? – During heat waves, deterioration could impact certain infrastructure components (asphalt on highways, concrete bridge joints). If you were experiencing an excessive number of high heat days, what would your biggest concerns be?
Impacts from Temperature (1/2)Climate Effect Impacts on Infrastructure and OperationsIncreases in very hot days •Asphalt degradation and pavement rutting, resulting in possibleand heat waves (higher short-term loss of public access or increased congestion ofhigh temperatures, sections of road and highway during repair and replacementincreased duration of heat •Increased thermal expansion of bridge joints and pavedwaves) surfaces, causing possible degradation •Concerns regarding pavement integrity, traffic-related rutting and migration of liquid asphalt, blow outs from concrete paving •Maintenance and construction costs for roads and bridges; stress on bridge integrity due to temperature expansion of concrete joints, steel, asphalt, protective cladding, coats, and sealants •Limits on periods of construction activity, and more nighttime work •Vehicle failures from overheating and tire degradationSource: Potential Impacts to Climate Change on U.S. Transportation , National Research 55Council (2008).
Impacts from Temperature (2/2)Climate Effect Impacts on Infrastructure and OperationsDecreases in very cold •Regional changes in snow and ice removaldays costs, environmental impacts from salt and chemical use •Fewer cold-related restrictions for maintenance workersLater onset of seasonal •Heaving/potholes (due to freeze-thaw)freeze and earlier onset •Fatigue cracking (cold temperature)of seasonal thaw •Changes in seasonal weight restrictions •Changes in seasonal fuel requirements •Improved mobility and safety associated with a reduction in winter weather •Longer construction season in colder areasSource: Potential Impacts to Climate Change on U.S. Transportation , National Research Council (2008). 56
Impacts from Precipitation (1/2)Climate Impacts on Infrastructure and OperationsEffectIncreases in •Areas in which flooding is already common will face more frequent and severeintense problemsprecipitation •Increases in weather-related delays and traffic disruptionsevents •Increased flooding of evacuation routes •Increases in flooding of roadways and tunnels, culvert failures •Increases in road washout, landslides, and mudslides that damage roadways •Drainage systems likely to be overloaded more frequently and severely, causing backups and street flooding •If soil moisture levels become too high, structural integrity of roads, bridges, and tunnels (especially where they are already under stress) could be compromised •Standing water may have adverse effects on road base •Increased peak streamflow could affect scour rates and influence the size requirement for bridges and culverts •Driver accidents increased/driver safety compromisedSource: Potential Impacts to Climate Change on U.S. Transportation , National Research 57Council (2008).
Impacts from Precipitation (2/2)Climate Impacts on Infrastructure and OperationsEffectChanges in •Benefits for safety and reduced interruptions if frozen precipitation shifts toseasonal rainfallprecipitation •Corrosion (from increased surface salts due to less precipitation)and stream •Increased risk of floods, landslides, gradual failures and damage to roads if precipitation changes from snow to rain in winter and spring thaws; moreflow erosionpatterns •Vegetation failure (due to drought) •Increased maintenance and replacement costs of road infrastructure •Short-term loss of public access or increased congestion to sections of road and highway from road closures and disruptions •Changes in access to floodplains during construction season and mobilization periods •Changes in wetland location and the associated natural protective services that wetlands offer to infrastructureSource: Potential Impacts to Climate Change on U.S. Transportation , National Research 58Council (2008).
Why Consider Adaptation?• Planning for the future can benefit the present• Proactive planning is more effective and less costly than responding reactively to climate change impacts as they happen• Thinking strategically can reduce future risks• Thinking strategically can increase future benefits
Approach to Risk and Adaptation• Thresholds vs. frequencies• What is the expected lifespan of the asset?• What climate hazards may impact the asset, and in what timeframe?• Which adaptation strategies are potentially applicable? 61
Est. Average Lifespan of AssetMode Infrastructure Lifetime (years)Surface Transportation Pavement 10-20 Bridges 50-100 Culverts 30-45 Tunnels 50-100 Railroad Tracks Up to 50Marine Locks and dams 50 Docks and port terminals 40-50Aviation Runway pavements 10 Terminals 40-50Pipelines Pipelines 100Source: Potential Impacts to Climate Change on U.S. Transportation , National Research 62Council (2008).
Timing for Strategies• Planning – Up to 25 years• Design, Engineering and Project Development – Can be >10 years design – Able to leverage funding and flexibility for expected changes• Maintenance – Approx 1-10 years decisions – Limited funding and flexibility• Operations – Day-to-day decisions – Come up with Plan BSource: Potential Impacts to Climate Change on U.S. Transportation , National Research 63Council (2008).
Adaptation Investment Choices • RTP Development • Strategic Abandonment/Redundancy • Emergency Evaluation Planning Planning • Hazard Mitigation Planning • Standards and Specifications • Engineering for Resiliency • Advanced Materials Design • Protecting and Hardening • Traffic Operations • ITS • MaintenanceOperations • Emergency Response 64
Example adaptation strategies• For example… – Flood barriers – Emergency detours – Drainage maintenanceSource: Dan Henry, Chattanooga Times Free Press; Associated Press; FHWA
Interactive Exercise: Adaptation• Earlier, we listed out the types of impacts from increased precipitation and temperature.• Now, we will brainstorm adaptation strategies for the various stressors into categories of planning, design and operations.• We will summarize this information for you to use in Module 7.
The regional transportation systemA mature, multi-modal system Mode Total Highways (Miles)• Roadways Interstate 50.2• Freight rail US Highway 126.4 State Highway 242.4• Airport Other 4030.1• Intermodal freight facilities Railroads (Miles) Class I 171.3• Marine facilities Other 50.2 Intermodal Facilities 16 Airports/heliports CHA/Lovell 1 Other airports 5 Heliports 3 Marine (terminals/docks) 31
Results from Criticality Votes Received >=3 <3• Map of critical places Roads & Bridges generated over lunch Rail• Feedback from small groups Air Maritime Intermodal
What makes an asset vulnerable?• Stressors – Extreme precipitation (flash floods, river floods) – Extreme temperatures – Hurricanes/tropical storms, tornadoes, other high winds, blizzards, wildfires, etc.
What makes an asset vulnerable?• Impacts – Is the asset exposed to the stressor, will it be in the future? • Some stressors are map-able (e.g. flooding) • Others are less spatially explicit (e.g. temperature) – What impacts could occur, what are the likely consequences? • Damage? • Disruption? • Deterioration? • No Impact? – How frequently could impacts occur, with what probability? • How might these frequencies change in the future?
Vulnerability: Priorities for Action?EXAMPLE Today 2040 and beyond*# Asset Stressor Impacts Cons Freq Cons Freq1 Bridge Extreme Scour Damage 25 yr+ ++ +++ precip Overtop Disrupt 10 yr+ ++ ++ Approach Extreme Expansion Disrupt 3x yr +++ Temp•Future consequences and frequencies may grow worse (or get better)due to changes in condition, climate, or external factors (e.g. change involumes)
Module 7: Developing Adaptation Strategies for the CHCRPA RTPADAPTATION STRATEGIES AND THEREGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN NOTE: Due to time constraints, adaptation was combined with the vulnerability module. This set of slides was not delivered during the workshop.
Reminder: Why Adaptation?• Planning for the future can benefit the present• Proactive planning is more effective and less costly than responding reactively to climate change impacts as they happen• Thinking strategically can reduce future risks• Thinking strategically can increase future benefits
Interactive Exercise: Strategies• Now we will develop adaptation strategies for the examples we generated in the previous module.• Note: remember you can refer to your “cheat sheet.”
Interactive Exercise: Strategies• Process for selecting adaptation strategies – What is the expected lifespan of the asset? – Which climate hazards may impact the asset, and in what timeframe? – Which adaptation strategies are potentially applicable? • Implementation feasibility • Effectiveness
Module 8: Monitoring, Evaluation, FeedbackPREPARING FOR THE NEXT PLANNINGCYCLE NOTE: Due to time constraints, this set of slides was not delivered during the workshop.
How to put into RTP? (1/3)• Flag projects in 2040 RTP that are identified as being potentially vulnerable – Work with project sponsors to incorporate adaptation strategies into project design, if necessary – Define new transportation projects that enhance transportation resiliency
How to put into RTP? (2/3)• Incorporate into performance measures – New measure: Does project provide network redundancy for a critical/vulnerable transportation asset? – Adjustment factor for scoring of other measures • Example: Project addresses existing bridge deficiency (extra points if asset is critical/vulnerable)
How to put into RTP? (3/3)• Related planning processes that address more detailed adaptation strategies – Design for resiliency as part of TIP project selection procedures?
How to continue with next RTP?• Update criticality/vulnerability assessment as new data/better models become available – US Army Corps hydrological model (HEC-RTS) with slider bar to see how floodplains change for potential rainfall events – Travel demand model updated each cycle• Incorporate new projects/adaptation strategies as they are developed• Refine integration into RTP performance measures/TIP selection criteria
Module 9: Closing and Wrap UpTHANK YOU FOR YOUR PARTICIPATION!