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Day 3.3 wiebe gfsf xtm rome 27 may15

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Day 3.3 wiebe gfsf xtm rome 27 may15

  1. 1. Foresight scenarios to inform CGIAR planning Keith Wiebe GFSF Extended Team Meeting Rome, 25 – 28 May 2015
  2. 2. Scenarios • Baseline • Changes in population, income, policy • Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) • Changes in climate • Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) • Draw on work with AgMIP
  3. 3. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Source: O’Neill et al., 2014
  4. 4. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Population, GDP and agricultural productivity assumptions by SSP (annual percentage change, 2010 – 2050) Source: IIASA, OECD, work in progress by IFPRI, PIK, USDA-ERS, LEI-WUR, GTAP/Purdue, FAO, IDS
  5. 5. Source: IPCC AR5 WG2 SPM, Figure 4(B), 31Mar2014 Global annual average surface temperature Representative Concentration Pathways
  6. 6. Baseline results for SSP1, 2 and 3 Baseline increases in global yields, area, production, consumption, exports, imports and prices of coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds and sugar in 2050 (% change relative to 2005 values) Source: Work in progress by IFPRI, PIK, USDA-ERS, LEI-WUR, GTAP/Purdue, FAO, IDS
  7. 7. Climate change impacts in 2050 Climate change impacts on global yields, area, production, consumption, exports, imports and prices of coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds and sugar in 2050 (% change relative to 2050 baseline values) Source: Work in progress by IFPRI, PIK, USDA-ERS, LEI-WUR, GTAP/Purdue, FAO, IDS
  8. 8. Climate change impacts and trade Source: Work in progress by IFPRI, PIK, USDA-ERS, LEI-WUR, GTAP/Purdue, FAO, IDS Impacts of climate change and trade policy on yields, area, production, exports and prices of five commodities, (% deviation from baseline values in 2050 without climate change) SSP1, RCP4.5 SSP3, RCP8.5
  9. 9. Scenarios • Baseline • Changes in population, income, policy • Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) • Changes in climate • Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) • Draw on work with AgMIP • Alternative • Broadly reflective of alternative CRP portfolios • Different geographic emphases? • Different commodity group emphases? • Other criteria? • How many?
  10. 10. All scenarios are wrong, but some of them are useful

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