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IPCC AR4 to AR5
Terminology
• Unchanged
– GCMs – General Circulation Models
• AR4
– SRES – Special Report on Emissions Scenarios
• AR5
– S...
How are these terms related?
•SSP
•RCP
SRES (A1B,
B1, etc.)
•RAPsIPRs from
IMPACT
• RCP 2.6 is below anything from
AR4
• RCP 6 is most similar to A1B
• RCP 8.5 is higher than anything
AR4
RCPs
RCP – Trends
RCP Details
Description IA Model Publication – IA Model
RCP8.5 Rising radiative forcing
pathway leading to 8.5 W/m2
in 210...
Climate impacts under RCP 8.5 - GFDL
Climate impacts under RCP 8.5 - HadGem
Climate impacts under RCP 8.5 - IPSL
Climate impacts under RCP 8.5 - MIROC
• SSP1 – Low Challenges
• SSP2 – Intermediate
Challenges, business as
usual (med-med)
• SSP3 – High Challenges
• SSP4 – Ad...
• SSPs are separated from
emissions, but not all SSPs
are compatible with all RCPs
Combining SSPs with RCPs
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Core Training Presentations- 1 Climate Science and IPCC Scenarios

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Global Futures & Strategic Foresight (GFSF) program enhances and uses a coordinated suite of biophysical and socioeconomic models to assess potential returns to investments in new agricultural technologies and policies. These models include IFPRI’s International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT), hydrology and water supply-demand models, and the DSSAT suite of process-based crop models.

The program also provides tools and trainings to scientists and policy makers to undertake similar assessments.

GFSF program is a Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) program led by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI

Published in: Government & Nonprofit
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Core Training Presentations- 1 Climate Science and IPCC Scenarios

  1. 1. IPCC AR4 to AR5
  2. 2. Terminology • Unchanged – GCMs – General Circulation Models • AR4 – SRES – Special Report on Emissions Scenarios • AR5 – SSPs – Shared Socioeconomic Pathways – RCPs – Representative Concentration Pathways – RAPs – Representative Agricultural Pathways
  3. 3. How are these terms related? •SSP •RCP SRES (A1B, B1, etc.) •RAPsIPRs from IMPACT
  4. 4. • RCP 2.6 is below anything from AR4 • RCP 6 is most similar to A1B • RCP 8.5 is higher than anything AR4 RCPs
  5. 5. RCP – Trends
  6. 6. RCP Details Description IA Model Publication – IA Model RCP8.5 Rising radiative forcing pathway leading to 8.5 W/m2 in 2100. MESSAGE Riahi et al. (2007) Rao & Riahi (2006) RCP6 Stabilization without overshoot pathway to 6 W/m2 at stabilization after 2100 AIM Fujino et al. (2006) Hijioka et al. (2008) RCP4.5 Stabilization without overshoot pathway to 4.5 W/m2 at stabilization after 2100 GCAM (MiniCAM) Smith and Wigley (2006) Clarke et al. (2007) Wise et al. (2009) RCP2.6 Peak in radiative forcing at ~ 3 W/m2 before 2100 and decline IMAGE van Vuuren et al. (2006; 2007)
  7. 7. Climate impacts under RCP 8.5 - GFDL
  8. 8. Climate impacts under RCP 8.5 - HadGem
  9. 9. Climate impacts under RCP 8.5 - IPSL
  10. 10. Climate impacts under RCP 8.5 - MIROC
  11. 11. • SSP1 – Low Challenges • SSP2 – Intermediate Challenges, business as usual (med-med) • SSP3 – High Challenges • SSP4 – Adaptation Challenges Dominates • SSP5 – Mitigation Challenges Dominates SSPs
  12. 12. • SSPs are separated from emissions, but not all SSPs are compatible with all RCPs Combining SSPs with RCPs

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