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8 Wiebe- Goals, Progress andPlans for 2015 –2016

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A one-day Strategic Foresight Conference took place at IFPRI Headquarters in Washington DC on November 7, 2014. Participants from leading global modeling groups, collaborating CGIAR centers and research programs, and other partners reviewed new long-term projections for global agriculture from IFPRI and other leading institutions, examined the potential impacts of climate change and other key challenges, and discussed the role of foresight work in identifying and supporting promising solutions.
Topics included:
Long-term outlook and challenges for food & agriculture
Addressing the challenges
Foresight in the CGIAR
Webcast video of morning sessions available on Global Futures program website here: http://globalfutures.cgiar.org/2014/11/03/global-futures-strategic-foresight-conference/

Published in: Government & Nonprofit
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8 Wiebe- Goals, Progress andPlans for 2015 –2016

  1. 1. Goals, Progress and Plans for 2015 – 2016 Keith Wiebe Strategic Foresight Conference Washington DC, 7 November 2014
  2. 2. Global Futures and Strategic Foresight is a CGIAR initiative to improve our understanding of future challenges to agricultural productivity, food security and environmental sustainability – and to explore options to address them With support from BMGF, PIM and CCAFS as well as AgMIP, USAID and USDA
  3. 3. Objectives 1. Improved system of integrated biophysical and economic modeling tools 2. Stronger community of practice for scenario analysis and ex ante impact assessment 3. Improved assessments of alternative global futures 4. To inform research, investment and policy decisions in the CGIAR and its partners
  4. 4. 1. Improved modeling tools • Complete recoding of IMPACT • Disaggregation geographically and by commodity • Land allocation to crops • Improved water & crop models • New data management system • Modular framework • Training
  5. 5. 2. Stronger community of practice • 12 CGIAR centers now participating in GFSF • IFPRI, CIAT, CIMMYT, CIP, ICARDA, ICRAF, ICRISAT, IITA, ILRI, IRRI, IWMI, WorldFish • Collaboration with other leading global economic modeling groups through AgMIP
  6. 6. 3. Improved assessments • IMPACT baseline • AgMIP global economic assessments • CCAFS regional scenarios • Analyses by centers • GFSF promising technologies Rainfed Maize (Africa) Irrigated Wheat (S. Asia) Rainfed Rice (S. + SE. Asia) Rainfed Potato (Asia) Rainfed Sorghum (Africa + India) Rainfed Groundnut (Africa + SE Asia) Rainfed Cassava (E. + S. + SE. Asia)
  7. 7. 3. Improved assessments • Investing in data for improved modeling • Sika Gbegbelegbe, CIMMYT • Foresight analysis and ex ante assessment of promising technologies to inform decision making • Swamikannu Nedumaran, ICRISAT
  8. 8. 3. Improved assessments • IMPACT baseline • AgMIP global economic assessments • CCAFS regional scenarios • Analyses by centers • GFSF promising technologies • Role of ag technologies • Africa regional reports Rainfed Maize (Africa) Irrigated Wheat (S. Asia) Rainfed Rice (S. + SE. Asia) Rainfed Potato (Asia) Rainfed Sorghum (Africa + India) Rainfed Groundnut (Africa + SE Asia) Rainfed Cassava (E. + S. + SE. Asia)
  9. 9. Challenges 1. Models and data • Variability, production systems, biotic stresses, gender 2. Institutional • Integrating within and across centers • Supporting an expanding network 3. Analytical • Harmonizing for comparison vs diverse interests 4. Linking with decision makers • From tools to analysis to outputs to outcomes
  10. 10. Plans for 2015-16 Center Focus areas CIAT Cassava, beans, rice; tropical forages? CIMMYT Pests and diseases for maize and wheat, economy-wide effects CIP Potato and sweet potato, late blight, virus models ICARDA Conservation agriculture technologies for wheat, policy dialogue ICRAF Agro-forestry systems, large-area crop model ICRISAT Pearl millet, chickpea, pests and diseases, gender IFPRI Livestock and fish models, land use, variability, nutrition IITA Cassava, cowpea, maize, soybean ILRI Livestock module, vaccines, feed and genetic technologies IRRI C4 rice, submergence tolerant rice IWMI Groundwater model and scenarios in India, China, Africa WorldFish Fish model, global and national supply and demand scenarios
  11. 11. Additional considerations • Broadening from original focus on “virtual crops” • Livestock, fish commodities • Resources, systems, management practices • Alternate socioeconomic and emissions pathways • Shared interests, collaboration across centers as well as with external partners • Training activities • Innovation in methods and tools to fit the question • Ownership, uptake and sustainability • More attention to end users
  12. 12. 4. Informing decision making • CGIAR centers • CRPs • RTB, Dryland Cereals, Grain Legumes; Maize, Wheat, Dryland Systems, Livestock & Fish… • National partners • MENA, S & SE Asia, Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa, Central Asia • Regional organizations • ASARECA, COMESA, CORAF/WECARD, FANRPAN, FARA, FLAR • International organizations and donors • OECD, FAO, ADB, IDB, IFAD, WB, BMGF, DFID, USDA
  13. 13. New web tool coming soon…
  14. 14. Thank you k.wiebe@cgiar.org

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