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8 iita pim - gfsf meeting 25-28 may 15 - iita progress

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The Global Futures and Strategic Foresight (GFSF) team met in Rome from May 25-28, 2015 to review progress towards current work plans, discuss model improvements and technical parameters, and consider possible contributions by the GFSF program to the CRP Phase II planning process. All 15 CGIAR Centers were represented at the meeting.

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8 iita pim - gfsf meeting 25-28 may 15 - iita progress

  1. 1. Global Futures & Strategic Foresight Overview of Progress in 2015 Arega Alene Agricultural Economist, IITA-Malawi GFSF Extended Team Meeting, 25-28 May 2015, Rome, Italy
  2. 2. Ex-ante evaluation of promising cowpea and soybean technologies in Sub-Saharan Africa Activity
  3. 3.  A foresight modeller has been recruited—will join in June 2015  The DSSAT model has been used to assess the yield effects of promising soybean technologies in Nigeria, but the ex-ante economic impact evaluation has yet to be done using the IMPACT model  Geospatial & virtual crop model development and simulations  Refine technology scenarios based on the key traits and combination of traits for addressing major production constraints (biotic and abiotic stresses)  Model improvement based on the socioeconomic & technology database  Sub-national production datasets are being assembled from the ministries of agriculture to fill possible data gaps in IMPACT 3 (e.g. cowpea in Mozambique) for improved ex-ante evaluation of technologies Progress
  4. 4.  Expert estimation of varietal adoption of cowpea and soybean has been done for better characterization and ex-ante evaluation of promising technologies  Experimental cowpea and soybean yield data have been obtained from breeders for a range of released as well as promising varieties  Ex-ante impact assessment of cowpea and soybean technologies is under way using the economic surplus model – value proposition for Phase 2 of CRP-Legumes  Much of the work planned for 2015 will be done from June/July 2015 with the leadership of the new foresight modeller Ex-ante evaluation of promising soybean technologies (e.g. yield potential, rust/drought, enhanced nitrogen fixation, etc.) using the IMPACT model Progress
  5. 5.  For soybean in Africa, there is a lot of interest in understanding the scope and the technology & policy options for import substitution through increased domestic production—e.g. Nigeria and Malawi 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 Milliontons IMPACT Model Baseline Projections Production @ 0.2% / year Progress
  6. 6. Thank You

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