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7 Nedumaran- Foresight Analysis and Exante Assessment of Promising Technologies: To Inform Decision Making

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A one-day Strategic Foresight Conference took place at IFPRI Headquarters in Washington DC on November 7, 2014. Participants from leading global modeling groups, collaborating CGIAR centers and research programs, and other partners reviewed new long-term projections for global agriculture from IFPRI and other leading institutions, examined the potential impacts of climate change and other key challenges, and discussed the role of foresight work in identifying and supporting promising solutions.
Topics included:
Long-term outlook and challenges for food & agriculture
Addressing the challenges
Foresight in the CGIAR
Webcast video of morning sessions available on Global Futures program website here: http://globalfutures.cgiar.org/2014/11/03/global-futures-strategic-foresight-conference/

Published in: Government & Nonprofit
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7 Nedumaran- Foresight Analysis and Exante Assessment of Promising Technologies: To Inform Decision Making

  1. 1. Foresight Analysis and Ex- ante Assessment of Promising Technologies: To Inform Decision Making S Nedumaran Research Program – Markets, Institutions and Policies ICRISAT, Hyderabad India Strategic Foresight Conference, IFPRI, Washington DC, & Nov 2014
  2. 2. Outline  Why foresight analysis and what it reveals  Assessment of promising technologies  Case study – Groundnuts promising technologies  Summary  Way forward
  3. 3. Why Foresight Analysis? Global food economy is in a state of FLUX Growing population Rising incomes Changing diets Restrictive trade policies Climate change Natural Resource degradation Food crops used for bio-fuel Higher and more volatile food prices and increasing food and nutritional insecurity Drivers of Change
  4. 4. 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 US$perMetricton Groundnuts Oil Soybeans Maize Sorghum Rice, Thai 5% Prices for Agricultural Commodities, 1971-2013 Stable and low Source: World Bank (data accessed on 2 April, 2014) Note: Price are in real 2010 US$.
  5. 5. Foresight Analysis Reveals! 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 '000metricton Supply Demand Demand and supply of grain legumes in Low Income Food Deficit Countries (LIFDC)* Source: IMPACT model projection Note: Grain legumes - groundnuts, chickpea, pigeonpea and soybeans; *There are 62 countries classified under LIFDC by FAO Projected population(Millions) under poverty in 2050
  6. 6. Goal of Global Futures and Strategic Foresight Increasing the yield by developing crop varieties with promising traits Increased production, reduces the prices, increase the consumption Reduce malnutrition and Poverty  To support increases in agricultural productivity and environmental sustainability by evaluating promising technologies, investments, and policy reforms  Evaluation of selected “virtual crops,” specifically drought- and heat-tolerant varieties and combinations Source: Nelson et al., PNAS (2014) Modeling climate impacts on agriculture: Incorporating economic effects
  7. 7. Promising Technologies and Countries of Adoption CROP TECHNOLOGY COUNTRIES Maize (CIMMYT) Drought tolerance Angola, Benin, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Uganda, the United Republic of Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe Heat tolerance Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Pakistan Wheat (CIMMYT) Drought tolerance Iran and Turkey Heat tolerance India and Pakistan Drought + Heat tolerance Argentina and South Africa Rice (IRRI and IFPRI) Drought tolerance Bangladesh, Cambodia, India, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Thailand Potato (CIP) Drought tolerance, Heat tolerance, and Drought + Heat tolerance Bangladesh, China, Kyrgyzstan, India, Nepal, Pakistan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan Sorghum (ICRISAT) Drought tolerance Burkina Faso, Eritrea, Ethiopia, India, Mali, Nigeria, Sudan, and The United Republic of Tanzania Groundnut (ICRISAT) Drought tolerance, Heat tolerance, and Drought + Heat tolerance + high yielding Burkina Faso, Ghana, India, Malawi, Mali, Myanmar, Niger, Nigeria, Uganda, United Republic of Tanzania, and Viet Nam Cassava (CIAT) Biological controls of a Mealybug pest infestation China, India, Indonesia, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Myanmar, and Thailand
  8. 8. Strategic Foresight @ ICRISAT- Intro • 5 Mandate crops • Dryland Cereals – Sorghum and Pearl Millet • Grain Legumes – Groundnuts, Chickpea and Pigeonpea • Grown in harsh environment by poor small holder farmers • Major constraints • Sorghum/millets – drought, heat • Groundnut – drought, aflatoxin • Chickpea – Insects/pests, drought, heat, diseases • Pigeonpea – Insects/pests, development of hybrids
  9. 9.  GFP activities integrated in CRP- PIM  Multidisciplinary team created and institutionalized (14 member team)  Promising technologies were identified and prioritized for evaluation  Collaboration with other CRPs and Global Projects like AgMIP (data sharing, model enhancement, capacity building) Global Futures Project and Strategic Foresight @ ICRISAT Multi-disciplinary team @ ICRISAT •Cynthia Bantilan, Nedumaran, Kai Mausch, N Jupiter Economists •Ashok Kumar, SK Gupta, CT Hash, PM Gaur, P Janila, Ganga Rao, Jana Kholova Breeders and Physiologists •P Singh •Dakshina Murthy •Gumma Murali Krishna Crop Modelers/GIS/RS ImpactAssessment
  10. 10. ICRISAT Focused Crops and Technologies • Crops (discussion with breeders, physiologist, crop modelers and economists) – Dryland cereals – Sorghum – Grain Legumes – Groundnut • Technologies focused based on potential of current crop model suites available – Drought – Heat – High yield potential – Combination of Heat + drought + high yield • During 2013-14 with support of CRP-PIM – Chickpea and Pearl millet was identified as next priority crops
  11. 11. Evaluation of Promising Technologies: Virtual Cultivars  Target of the crop improvement scientists – develop promising technologies with higher yield PotentialYield(Kg/ha) 2013 2020 Incorporating the traits in elite cultivars better root system Extractmorewater
  12. 12. Crop Model Calibration and Development of Virtual Promising Cultivars  DSSAT Crop Model  Baseline Cultivars selected - JL 24, M 335 and 55-437  Location  Anantapur and Junagadh sites in India  Samanko (Mali) and Sadore (Niger) sites in West Africa  calibrate and validate baseline cultivars  Manipulated the genetic co –efficient of baseline cultivars and developed the virtual promising cultivars for each locations  Drought Tolerant  Heat Tolerant  Drought + Heat + yield Potential  Estimate the yield change for each technology compare to baseline cultivars in each location  Data source: Breeders yield trial data; NARS trial data  National Bureau of Soil Survey and Land Use Planning, Nagpur India; WISE soil database  India Meteorological Department (IMD); NASA website (http://power.larc.nasa.gov/)
  13. 13. 1171 1225 1270 1477 1100 1150 1200 1250 1300 1350 1400 1450 1500 JL 24 Drought Tolerance Heat Tolerance Drought + Heat tolerance + Yield potential Kg/ha 1228 1271 1246 1451 1100 1150 1200 1250 1300 1350 1400 1450 1500 JL 24 Drought Tolerance Heat Tolerance Drought + Heat tolerance + Yield potential Kg/ha Step 1: Simulated Yield of Promising Technologies of Groundnuts Source: Singh, P., Nedumaran, S., Ntare, B.R., Boote, K.J., Singh, N.P., Srinivas, K., and Bantilan, M.C.S. 2013. Potential benefits of drought and heat tolerance in groundnut for adaptation to climate change in India and West Africa. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change. 18% Yield under Current Climate 26% Yield under Climate change 2050 (HADCM3, A1B scenario) Location: Anantapur, India; Baseline Cultivars: JL 24
  14. 14. Step 2: Spatial Change in Groundnut Yield Baseline cultivar (Current Vs Future Climate) Promising Technology – Drought Tolerant
  15. 15. Step 3: Technology Development and Adoption Pathway Framework 2012 2018 2035 India60% Nigeria40% 20372020 Research lag Adoption lag Promising Technologies of Groundnut development Technology development Technology dissemination and adoption Outcomes and Impacts • Change in Production • Change in prices • Change in consumption • Poverty level Nedumaran et al. (2013) Target countries Target countries Production share (%) Burkina Faso 1.2 Ghana 1.62 India 12.99 Malawi 0.7 Mali 1.01 Myanmar 3.84 Niger 0.51 Nigeria 10.72 Tanzania 1.73 Uganda 0.76 Vietnam 1.84 Total 36.92
  16. 16. Potential Welfare Benefits and IRR (M US$) Technologies Net Benefits (M US$) IRR (%) Heat Tolerant 302.39 30 Drought Tolerant 784.08 38 Heat + Drought + Yield Potential 1519.76 42 Nedumaran et al. (2013) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Malawi Tanzania Uganda Burkina Faso Ghana Mali Nigeria Niger India Myanmar Vietnam ESA WCA SSEA MUS$ Heat Tolerance Drought Tolerance Heat+Drought+yield potential
  17. 17. Effects of Promising Technologies on the Impact of Climate Change on Yields in 2050 Rainfed Maize (Africa) Irrigated Wheat (S. Asia) Rainfed Rice (S. + SE. Asia) Rainfed Potato (Asia) Rainfed Sorghum (Africa + India) Rainfed Groundnut (Africa + SE Asia) Rainfed Cassava (E. + S. + SE. Asia)
  18. 18. Summary  Climate change impacts on yields are significant, although modest relative to long-term effects of socioeconomic change and productivity growth  The promising varieties evaluated in this report are generally able to offset the negative yield impacts of climate change  The combined-trait varieties clearly performed better than the single trait varieties  The productivity gains observed in all of the technologies improved the regions’ terms of trade  All of the adopting regions would be less vulnerable to global price shocks under these scenarios  The global consequences of the different technology scenarios varies by crop and technology - due to the total share of global production and the rate of adoption
  19. 19. Limitations  Need to evaluate potential policies and alternative technologies under a wider set of climatic and socioeconomic conditions  Current representation of climate change fails to capture inter- annual variability, which does not allow testing of the technologies under the extreme climate events  Crop models used to capture changes in crop productivity – High data intensive  The global benefits of the potential technologies are sensitive to assumptions on adoption rates; necessary to test the technologies under a broader range of adoption pathways  Need careful attention to harmonization of scenarios in order to inform priority setting
  20. 20.  Evaluate the additional promising technologies (biotic stress tolerant and management options) with current GF/PIM Strategic foresight tool  Provide evidence to inform priority setting for CG centres and CRPs  Identify and collaborate with pest and diseases modelling team  Gender lens in foresight analysis and technology evaluation Way Forward
  21. 21. Thank you! ICRISAT is a member of the CGIAR Consortium

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