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MODELLING ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE
CHANGE IN AGRICULTURE – THE
PROCESS
Ada Ignaciuk
Trade and Agriculture Directorate
Organis...
About a process that benefited two
organizations – IFPRI and OECD
1) Who are we and how are we organized?
2) Why did we ch...
• Organisation for Economic Co-operation and
Development
• The mission is to promote policies that will
improve the econom...
OECD Membership is evolving…
4
OECD has currently 34 member countries
Accession & other
candidates
Colombia
Latvia
Costa R...
Structure of the OECD
• Committee for Agriculture
– Working Party for Agriculture and the Environment
JWPEA
5
Expert Meeting on
modelling Agriculture
and Climate Change.
Decision to explore
AgLINK and IMPACT
6
February 2011
JWPAE:
c...
IFPRI
OECD
Secretariat
Delegates
JWPAE
• Formalization of our agreement
• The project was very small—a trial effort
• 1st ...
IFPRI
OECD
Secretariat
Delegates
JWPAE
Had to use the earlier IMPACT 2 model, with no changes
….but agreed to a trial.
Fir...
• IMPACT training
• OECD review the model
• IFPRI in the meantime decided to
restructure IMPACT model code
• People compon...
Socio-
economics
Emissions
concentration
Climate
model
Crop model
Scenario
name
SSP2
Climate of
last 50 y
Reference
RCP 8....
• Research and Development
– Adoption of drought resistant maize and
wheat (R&D)
– Technology transfers (TT)
• Irrigation ...
Results of the collaboration
• OECD provided very useful testing of the IMPACT
2 model, focusing on results for OECD count...
Results – yield effects
* Yield change - % change compared to a respective climate change scenario
-10% 0% 10% 20%
EFF+IR
...
Results – price effects
* Price change - % change compared to respective cc scenario
Maize Rice Wheat
-6% -4% -2% 0%
EFF+I...
Main messages
• By 2050 the average yields of maize, wheat and rice may
decline by 10%, 7% and 6% due to climate change. T...
• Some lessons from this exercise
– Both institutions benefited from this exchange
– Key to develop common interests
– It ...
How the results were then used to inform a policy
dialogue in the OECD?
• JWPAE
• Follow up invitations from the delegates...
• What are our future plans wrt IMPACT
– Climate Smart Agriculture
– Long term Strategies for Agriculture
Future plans
Thank you!
Contact information:
ada.ignaciuk @oecd.org
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3 Ignaciuk- MODELLING ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN AGRICULTURE – THE PROCESS

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A one-day Strategic Foresight Conference took place at IFPRI Headquarters in Washington DC on November 7, 2014. Participants from leading global modeling groups, collaborating CGIAR centers and research programs, and other partners reviewed new long-term projections for global agriculture from IFPRI and other leading institutions, examined the potential impacts of climate change and other key challenges, and discussed the role of foresight work in identifying and supporting promising solutions.
Topics included:
Long-term outlook and challenges for food & agriculture
Addressing the challenges
Foresight in the CGIAR
Webcast video of morning sessions available on Global Futures program website here: http://globalfutures.cgiar.org/2014/11/03/global-futures-strategic-foresight-conference/

Published in: Government & Nonprofit
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3 Ignaciuk- MODELLING ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN AGRICULTURE – THE PROCESS

  1. 1. MODELLING ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN AGRICULTURE – THE PROCESS Ada Ignaciuk Trade and Agriculture Directorate Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development IFPRI Foresight Conference, Washington DC November 7, 2014
  2. 2. About a process that benefited two organizations – IFPRI and OECD 1) Who are we and how are we organized? 2) Why did we choose IMPACT? 3) What were the challenges and how they were solved? 4) What were the results? 5) Plans for future… What this presentation is about
  3. 3. • Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development • The mission is to promote policies that will improve the economic and social well-being of people around the world. • The OECD provides a forum in which governments can work together to share experiences and seek solutions to common problems. Who are we?
  4. 4. OECD Membership is evolving… 4 OECD has currently 34 member countries Accession & other candidates Colombia Latvia Costa Rica Lithuania Key partners Russia Brazil China India Indonesia South Africa
  5. 5. Structure of the OECD • Committee for Agriculture – Working Party for Agriculture and the Environment JWPEA 5
  6. 6. Expert Meeting on modelling Agriculture and Climate Change. Decision to explore AgLINK and IMPACT 6 February 2011 JWPAE: call for continuation of work on adaptation of agriculture to climate change JWPAE: “…continue to work with IMPACT, exploring the possibilities of linking this model with ENV-Linkages.” COAG “…address topics relating to the adaptation of agriculture to climate change” MODELING ADAPTATION Climate Change and Agriculture – Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation 2010 April 2012 May 2012 Economic Aspects of Adaptation to Climate Change 2008 Agriculture and Economic Adaptation to Climate Change 2012 IFPRI OECD Secretariat Delegates JWPAE
  7. 7. IFPRI OECD Secretariat Delegates JWPAE • Formalization of our agreement • The project was very small—a trial effort • 1st idea - contract – however, we are not a formal partner with IFPRI and there were issues of money and intellectual property that needed sorting. Solution: • Good will and trust - • We decided to work based on mutual respect
  8. 8. IFPRI OECD Secretariat Delegates JWPAE Had to use the earlier IMPACT 2 model, with no changes ….but agreed to a trial. First results raised questions at the OECD. Some questions and uncertainties • Impact focuses on developing countries • Issues concerning aggregation • Issues concerning national data Solution: only some serious work on the model could have changed it.
  9. 9. • IMPACT training • OECD review the model • IFPRI in the meantime decided to restructure IMPACT model code • People component 9 IFPRI OECD Secretariat Delegates JWPAE IFPRI OECD Secretariat
  10. 10. Socio- economics Emissions concentration Climate model Crop model Scenario name SSP2 Climate of last 50 y Reference RCP 8.5 IPSL LPJML Scenario 1 DSSAT Scenario 3 Hadley LPJML Scenario 2 DSSAT Scenario 4 SSP2 Methodology: followed the development of AgMIP scenarios
  11. 11. • Research and Development – Adoption of drought resistant maize and wheat (R&D) – Technology transfers (TT) • Irrigation management – Irrigation efficiency (IEf) – Irrigation extensions (IEx) – Irrigation efficiency & irrigation extension (IEf & IEx) Adaptation strategies
  12. 12. Results of the collaboration • OECD provided very useful testing of the IMPACT 2 model, focusing on results for OECD countries. – Based on this a revised document was presented to JWPEA -> “there is a scope for improvement” • OECD was used as “beta tester” as IFPRI developed the IMPACT 3 model …. And final result: “Modelling Adaptation to Climate Change in Agriculture” -> has been declassified. 12 IFPRI OECD Secretariat
  13. 13. Results – yield effects * Yield change - % change compared to a respective climate change scenario -10% 0% 10% 20% EFF+IR IR EFF TT R&D1 EFF+IR IR EFF TT R&D1 EFF+IR IR EFF TT R&D1 WheatRiceMaize Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 -5% 0% 5% 10% EFF+IR IR EFF TT R&D1 EFF+IR IR EFF TT R&D1 EFF+IR IR EFF TT R&D1 WheatRiceMaize Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 -10% 0% 10% 20% EFF+IR IR EFF TT R&D1 EFF+IR IR EFF TT R&D1 EFF+IR IR EFF TT R&D1 WheatRiceMaize Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 -10% 0% 10% EFF+IR IR EFF TT R&D1 EFF+IR IR EFF TT R&D1 EFF+IR IR EFF TT R&D1 WheatRiceMaize Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Korea-Japan North America South Pacific South Europe
  14. 14. Results – price effects * Price change - % change compared to respective cc scenario Maize Rice Wheat -6% -4% -2% 0% EFF+IR IR EFF TT R&D1 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 -2% -2% -1% -1% 0% EFF+IR IR EFF TT R&D1 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 -3% -2% -1% 0% EFF+IR IR EFF TT R&D1 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4
  15. 15. Main messages • By 2050 the average yields of maize, wheat and rice may decline by 10%, 7% and 6% due to climate change. There are large regional differences. • Autonomous adaptation is essential, but may not be sufficient. • No measure fits all – therefore diversification of adaptation options are crucial – a) for risk reduction and 2) direct benefits. • Additional investments in R&D and efficient water management systems are keys to smooth transition towards climate resilience agriculture • Governments may consider supporting measures to increase water efficiency in agriculture as part of their adaptation strategies, although they need to be supported by other economic instruments such as water pricing or implementation of tradable rights and quotas, where relevant. OECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate 15
  16. 16. • Some lessons from this exercise – Both institutions benefited from this exchange – Key to develop common interests – It is all about people: successful collaboration requires trust and willingness to change things – Work on models requires time and effort => resources for model development are necessary – Review of models are very important (important to include external people ) IFPRI OECD Secretariat
  17. 17. How the results were then used to inform a policy dialogue in the OECD? • JWPAE • Follow up invitations from the delegates to say “the story” at their respective ministries • An invitation from the policy journal to present a short summary of the work • In other OECD’s products – Ag baseline of ENV Linkages based on IMPACT – Long Term Agricultural Scenarios project • There is an appetite for more. IFPRI OECD Secretariat Delegates JWPAE
  18. 18. • What are our future plans wrt IMPACT – Climate Smart Agriculture – Long term Strategies for Agriculture Future plans
  19. 19. Thank you! Contact information: ada.ignaciuk @oecd.org

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