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15 cifor an overview of cifor works related to gfsf


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The Global Futures and Strategic Foresight (GFSF) team met in Rome from May 25-28, 2015 to review progress towards current work plans, discuss model improvements and technical parameters, and consider possible contributions by the GFSF program to the CRP Phase II planning process. All 15 CGIAR Centers were represented at the meeting.

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15 cifor an overview of cifor works related to gfsf

  1. 1. CIFOR, Oil Palm and GFSF Ahmad Dermawan CIFOR Global Futures & Strategic Foresight Extended Team Meeting Rome, Italy | May 25-28, 2015
  2. 2. CIFOR and foresight • Scenario development and analysis • Local to national scales • More qualitative exercises
  3. 3. Integrated land use planning
  4. 4. Designing strategies to improve small scale operators
  5. 5. Formulating smallholder tree planting policies
  6. 6. A tool for community-based forest management
  7. 7. Aspirations • Future works: – Moving towards a combination of quantitative and qualitative scenario analysis – Forest-agriculture interface, land use – Focus on key commodities: timber, oil palm, rubber – From national to global level – Make a better use of the data • Foresight as an evaluation tool
  8. 8. CIFOR works on oil palm • Review on the opportunities and challenges of oil palm expansion • The role of oil palm in bioenergy • The role of oil palm in local economic development • Engagement with national government (ISPO) and multistakeholder process (RSPO, HCS)
  9. 9. Global oil palm picture • The production of palm oil is concentrated • Top two countries (Indonesia and Malaysia) contribute to 86% of global production • Top five countries (Top two, plus Thailand, Colombia, and Nigeria) contribute to 92% of global production • ASEAN countries contribute to 89% of production
  10. 10. Oil palm production Indonesia Malaysia Thailand ColombiaNigeriaPNG Ecuador Ghana Honduras Guatemala Others
  11. 11. Indonesia - 2014 29.3million ton CPO production 10.9million ha area 3.6ton CPO/ha
  12. 12. Indonesia – yield potentials Variety FFB Yield (ton/ha) CPO (ton/ha) D x P PPKS 540 (High mesocarp) 28.1 8.1 D x P PPKS 718 (Big bunch) 26.5 6.9 D x P PPKS 239 (High CPO & PKO) 32.0 8.4 D x P Simalungun 28.4 7.5 D x P Langkat 27.5 7.2 D x P Sungai Pancur (Dumpy) 26.5 6.9 D x P LaMe 26.5 6.4 D x P Avros 25.5 6.3 D x P Yangambi 26.5 6.5 Government vision 35.0 9.1
  13. 13. Malaysia - 2014 19.7million ton CPO production 5.4million ha area 3.8ton CPO/ha
  14. 14. Malaysia – yield potentials FFB (ton/ha) CPO/ha Government target 35 8.8 Theoretical max 17 Highest trials 11.5 Highest field yield 6.8 Highest national yield 4.4
  15. 15. Oil palm goes home • Land is getting scarce in Indonesia and Malaysia • Expansion to other regions, e.g. Africa