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Strategic Foresight at AfricaRice
Africa Rice Center (AfricaRice)
Global Futures and Strategic Foresight Extended Team Mee...
ContentContent
• Methodology
• Some results of the ex-ante impact
• Way forward
Methodology: the agricultural household modelMethodology: the agricultural household model
Methodology (Cont’d): Changes in varietal characteristicsMethodology (Cont’d): Changes in varietal characteristics
Methodology (Cont): Changes in agricultural practicesMethodology (Cont): Changes in agricultural practices
 Household and community survey data in 18 countries were used to
assess:
• The importance and variability of rice produc...
 These survey data, experts’ opinion and additional secondary data
were used with econometric methods, to assess research...
Average expected yield gain by research solution and ecology (t/ha)
Some aggregated results of the potential impacts of
te...
Some aggregated results of the potential impacts of
technological innovations
Share of annual discounted benefit due to technologies, by research option
Some aggregated results of the potential impact...
Share of annual discounted benefit due
to technologies, by ecology
Share of annual discounted benefit due
to technologies,...
Looking aheadLooking ahead
• Many technologies have been introduced since 2014 in the Rice
Sector Development Hubs (RSDH) ...
ThankyouThankyou
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14 africa rice gfsf may 2015 africarice strategic foresight 28may

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The Global Futures and Strategic Foresight (GFSF) team met in Rome from May 25-28, 2015 to review progress towards current work plans, discuss model improvements and technical parameters, and consider possible contributions by the GFSF program to the CRP Phase II planning process. All 15 CGIAR Centers were represented at the meeting.

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14 africa rice gfsf may 2015 africarice strategic foresight 28may

  1. 1. Strategic Foresight at AfricaRice Africa Rice Center (AfricaRice) Global Futures and Strategic Foresight Extended Team Meeting Rome, May 25-28, 2015
  2. 2. ContentContent • Methodology • Some results of the ex-ante impact • Way forward
  3. 3. Methodology: the agricultural household modelMethodology: the agricultural household model
  4. 4. Methodology (Cont’d): Changes in varietal characteristicsMethodology (Cont’d): Changes in varietal characteristics
  5. 5. Methodology (Cont): Changes in agricultural practicesMethodology (Cont): Changes in agricultural practices
  6. 6.  Household and community survey data in 18 countries were used to assess: • The importance and variability of rice productivity by ecology • The incidence and magnitude of effects of main stresses • Varietal technology evaluation and preference at village level  Two days workshop during AfricaRice 2010 Research days • Scientist proposed solutions by ecology and research discipline • Scientist provided expected yield loss reduction / yield gain for each solution • Projected cost, year of delivery and proablitity of success • AfricaRice’s comparative advantage in conducting such research Methodology (Cont’d): dataMethodology (Cont’d): data
  7. 7.  These survey data, experts’ opinion and additional secondary data were used with econometric methods, to assess research impact for each research theme and discipline, by country and ecology • See Diagne et. al (2013) and AfricaRice 2011-2020 Strategic Plan for more details Methodology (Cont)Methodology (Cont)
  8. 8. Average expected yield gain by research solution and ecology (t/ha) Some aggregated results of the potential impacts of technological innovations
  9. 9. Some aggregated results of the potential impacts of technological innovations
  10. 10. Share of annual discounted benefit due to technologies, by research option Some aggregated results of the potential impacts ofSome aggregated results of the potential impacts of technological innovationstechnological innovations ADB: $1.1 billion, from 2014 to 2020, for farmers
  11. 11. Share of annual discounted benefit due to technologies, by ecology Share of annual discounted benefit due to technologies, by reseach discipline Some aggregated results of the potential impacts ofSome aggregated results of the potential impacts of technological innovationstechnological innovations Results are also available for processors, traders and consumers
  12. 12. Looking aheadLooking ahead • Many technologies have been introduced since 2014 in the Rice Sector Development Hubs (RSDH) in SSA • GFSF activities can help assess the mid-term impacts of these technologies and review the IPRs for a better future  Develop a framework at AfricaRice to link previous priority setting exercises to (better?) inform IPRs of rice in SSA  Mid-term data collection in the RSDH to assess the impacts of adopting improved technologies on productivity for all types of actors along the rice value chain  Training on the IMPACT model for AfricaRice staff that will get involved in Global Futures activities  Establishment of AfricaRice’s Global Futures Team  Workshop for AfricaRice’s Global Futures Team members to review experts’ opinion stated in 2010 on future productivity growths
  13. 13. ThankyouThankyou

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