Similar to Fernando Ortiz-Cañavate, Managing Director at Volkswagen Financial Services - Risk Management Effectiveness: Taking a reactive or proactive approach
Similar to Fernando Ortiz-Cañavate, Managing Director at Volkswagen Financial Services - Risk Management Effectiveness: Taking a reactive or proactive approach (20)
2. 2 22
5. Conclusion
3. Automotive strategy is changing
4. Financial approach
2. Spanish crisis: where are we going?
1. Spain: Economic comparisson
3. Spain: it has a sizable economic dimension, close to 47 Mio
population, 1,1 Trio EUR economy and the 4th largest in Europe
2012 GDP: EUR 1.063 Trio
How much bigger than Spain?
GDP size in PPP terms (2012)
3
4. Levels of income and wealth are still lower than those
prevailing in central and northen Europe
2012 GDP per capita
(USD 000´s)
2012 GDP per capita
(Spain = 100)
4
6. Foreign trade patterns: at some point, the second largest current account deficit
in the world (above USA). In 2013 there were the first surplus in 15 years.
6
12. There is a dual economy: landscape is dominated by micro-companies with few
large multinationals
12
13. Then in 2011: the early 2000´s business model has collapsed…
Construction spending in GDP (%)
Immigrant population (% of total)
Share of construction in creating
employment
Construction played a disproportionate role in the Spanish business model!
13
17. …and it brought a collapse in all activity sectors……and a dismal in the job market…
27 % and over 56%
for young people
27.0%
Unemployment rate (%) Happy Spaniards around the world
Massive damage across economic sectors setting Spain back 15 years
17
18. …and there are still significant inefficiencies in the current model.
18
22. But there is still a long way to say that we are completely out of recession
22
Unemployment Evolution
Unemployment is still at the highest levels.
Non performing Loans – Evolution (% total)
Non performing loans are damaging the credit
performance.
And credit is at 25.1% down from its peak.
Credit to individuals and to non financial corporations (Mio EUR)
23. And all activity sectors are still in recession
23
0
200.000
400.000
600.000
800.000
1.000.000
1.200.000
1.400.000
1.600.000
1.800.000
Car industry (# cars)
1994 2013
Construction is still in lowest levels
Despite the last increase, Car sales back to 1994 and
down a 56% from its peak
Industrial output excluding construction index
Wage reductions are affecting Retail Sales.
Retail sales volume index
19 years
24. 4,68%
2,89%
0,70%
1,01%
1,36%
0,19% 0,29% 0,30% 0,30%
4,75%
3,05%
1,25%
1,51%
1,95%
0,54% 0,56% 0,56% 0,56%
4,54%
3,26%
2,74%
2,48%
1,76%
0,77%
1,30% 1,18%
1,18%
0,0%
1,0%
2,0%
3,0%
4,0%
5,0%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Euribor 3 months Euribor 1 Year Swap 5 years
24
Interest Rates Yield Curve – Euribor /Swap
What can we expect for 2014?
• Interest Rates are still under control and refinancing for good rating companies are
reasonable cheap. It is expected that corporate investment will continue the good
trend that has been observed in the last six months.
25. 0,2
-1,1
-2,7
-3,3
-4,6
-2,5
-0,3
1,6
4
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
25
Consumer Index
2011 2012 2013
What can we expect for 2014?
• Confidence of investors index has improved.
CONCLUSION: We are moderately optimistic and expect a slight recovery in 2014 that
will be translated into a higher level of consumption and an improvement
of the financial situation of families and medium and small companies.
26. 26 2626
5. Conclusion
3. Automotive strategy is changing
4. Financial approach
2. Spanish crisis: where are we going?
1. Spain: Economic comparisson
27. Good products alone are no longer enough!
Sustainable success for OEMs is based on several factors
Strong research &
development /
strong production
Strong presenceStrong products + +
OEM = Original Equipment Manufacturers, i. e.
manufacturers
27
28. Groups with greater market coverage enjoy advantages
Market
coverage
Geographical
coverage
High
Low
Regional Global
Niche
players
28
29. The sustainable success of a manufacturer is also
based on a powerful captive
Strong
Automobile Manufacturer
Strong
Financial Services Provider
29
30. The high volatility in many saturated markets requires a
high degree of flexibility and good portfolio management
0,0
4,0
3,0
3,5
Newregistrationsinmillions
1,8
0,0
2,0
1,9
2,1
2,4
2,2
2,3
2,6
Newregistrationsinmillions
1,6
1,5
1,4
1,3
1,2
1,1
1,0
0,9
0,8
0,0
Newregistrationsinmillions
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
0
Newregistrationsinmillions
30
31. The importance of the car is continually decreasing for
young and urban people
Source: Next Practice 2010, Volkswagen, Young without Cars, Study 2010
Trend towards commodity with related price and volume risks
Without connectivity, a car is no longer in
the „relevant" set for the young/urban
Ownership of a car is less relevant for
young customers
What is a 30-year old man interested in?
Interne
t
Aut
o
Telekommunikation
2008
1998
62
Telecommunications Car
31
32. Declining loyalty
to authorised
workshops
Workshop
steering by
insurers
Decreasing
volume &
profit
Cost pressure in
workshops
New
technologies
(BEV)
The workshop business – vitally important for dealers
– is under massive threat
Ertrag Handel (in %)
Sales After Sales
Better
vehicles
Workshop business: very profitable
Dealer profit (in %)
Dealer turnover (in %)
32
33. Experts expect customer loyalty to authorised workshops
to fall even further
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Segment Ia Segment Ib Segment II Segment III
Vehicle age
80 %
60 %
40 %
20 %
Customer loyalty to authorised
workshops
Workshop revenue lost due to decreasing customer loyalty
Basis:
Loyalty 2008
Loyalty 2010
Loyalty 2014
33
34. The classic car dealer format is appealing for proud
owners – but not for flexible users!
Close 1:1 relationship between
vehicle ownership and vehicle use
Pay and use
Mobility yesterday and today
Flexible mobility solutions and services
for individual mobility objectives
Pay per use
Mobility today and tomorrow
New mobility
concepts
34
35. Volume concentration on demanding commercial
customers is becoming a challenge for dealerships
Source: ADL; VW FS AG
Major complexity to date:
Differing needs of many different
individual customers
Major complexity tomorrow:
Increasing volume concentration on fleet
customers with high demands
Leasing
Courtesy
cars
Radio tax
Road tolls
Car
registration
Fuel cards
Scheduled service
Maintenance
Tyre replacement
Insurance
Wear and tear
Driving licence
checks
Long-term rental
Reporting systems
Fleet management
Fleet advisory
Legal inspection
Tyre change and storage
Claims management
35
36. Many customers wish to have a dealership in their city centre.
Locations in industrial estates become increasingly unattractive
High structural investments outside cities Audi City (virtual dealer)
A4 A6 A8
Saloon Avant Quattro
A1 A3 A4 A5 A6 A7 A8 Q3 Q5 Q7 TT R8
CoupéSportback
S series RS series Roadster
Saloon Avant Quattro
CabrioletCabriolet
36
37. Captives also have specific challenges!
... for example, the over-50s pay cash!
BUT: Average age of
new car buyers is increasing
AND: The older a customer, the less
affinity to financial services
Decreasing financing volume
Source: VW FS AG, AutoUni
20251995 65-75 yrs. > 75 yrs.55-65 yrs.
(Financing rate in %)
Today, more than every second vehicle in Germany is financed
37
39. … and creates great challenges for them!
End 2014Pre 2010
Number of employees engaged in meeting legal requirements
Increasing regulation
+
140%
39
41. • Long-term
rental
• Short-term
rental
• Micro-rental
(car sharing)
Rentals
1. Extended product range necessary!
Offer solutions with a board range of products
• Accounts
• Instalment
credits
• Investments
• New mobility
offers
Direct bank
• Automotive
• Credit
protection
insurance
• Industry
InsuranceServices
• Inspection
service
• Maintenance
packages
• Maintenance
and repair
Leasing
• Finance
leasing
• Operating
leasing
• Fuel
• Tyres
• Reporting
Fleet mgmt.Bank
• Customer
financing
• Dealer
financing
• Factoring
Risk taking and risk management as core competence
41
42. 2. Role change needed! From pure sale promotion to customer
and car relationship manager
Joe
Bloggs
VSSZZZ
1PZCR
07913
2
CRM² = Customer Relationship
Management
Car Relationship
Management
x
Student 1st job
Young
family
Family
Post-
family
Pension
Company
car
1-year-
old car
3-year-
old UC
5-year-
old UC
8-year-
old UC
…
UC = used car 42
43. 3. Global orientation necessary!
Concentration on home market and "cherry
picking" are not enough
Global orientation
43
44. And where do we go from here?
Broad product range Worldwide deploymentLife cycle management
44
50. 215,1 225,0 227,0 231,3
264,5 285,2 306,2 297,2
86,0 69,1
61,7
65,8
65,7 69,5
44,7
80,9
215,1 225,0
313,0 300,4
326,1
351,0
416,6
447,6
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Finance+Leasing Insurance Services
New Contracts (Tsd. Units)
Total Portfolio (Tsd. Units)
73,2 86,3 74,0 67,8
90,7 83,5 89,9 105,3
0,0
0,0
111,3
92,7
165,7
110,0 116,2
127,5
26,7
32,7
37,6
73,2
86,3
185,3
160,5
256,4
220,2
238,9
270,5
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Finance+Leasing Insurance Services
50
VWFS Spain has diversified its products and services growing in
a depressed market with a different business plan
51. 51
0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000
FGA CAPITAL
SPAIN
BANSABADEL
L FINCOM
FINCONSUM
TOYOTA
KREDITBANK
BANCO
CETELEM
BMW BANK
GMBH
BANQUE PSA
FINANCE
RCI Banque
Suc en
España
BBVA
CONSUMER
FINANCE
SANTANDER
CONSUMER
FINANCE
VOLKSWAGE
N FINANCE
Dec 2013 Dec 2012
Source: ASNEF
TOTAL Credit Investment €: Competitors
Volkswagen Finance has
become market leader in
customer credit for
Automotive Industry (New
Cars + Used Cars).
At December 2013
cumulative growth of VW
Finance is 10,1% compared
to 2012.
+10,1%
-2,9%
-1,5%
+20,6%
-14,5%
+14,6%
+30,9%
+4,9%
+6,5%
2,2%
+38,6%
And become market leader above other general
financial institutions
52. VW FS AG | Investor Update
Thank you very much!52