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Our common future under climate change, July 9, 2015, Paris
Innovative adaptation of pastoral system
to climate change:
- ...
Annual mean temperature,1940-2013
Annual mean precipitation,1940-2013
2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Temperaturechange,0
C
-6
-4...
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
1958 1966 1974 1982 1990 1998 2006 2014
Millionheads
9.6 million heads decreased
(1999-2002)
11.3 ...
Climate Change and Adaptation in Mongolia
Control of livestock number within carrying capacity
Conservation of pastureland...
Needs for adaptation infrastructure in Mongolia
weather monitoring and zud prediction
management of pastureland/livestoc...
Adaptation
MitigationDevelopment
Low
carbon
Society
Co-benefit
Sustainable
Green
Development
Climate
resilient
society
Goa...
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011...
Zud Early Warning System
8
World weather forecast
・Automatic processing softwares
- Cutout of region and
meteorological el...
“Western” models
Farms/ranches
Rich herders (10%)
“Hot ails”
Win-Win
Farmer’s association
Community based natural resource...
Challenges
 Freezer technology using renewable energy
 Economical incentive for carrying capacity
by ecological branding...
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Watanabe m 20150709_1500_upmc_jussieu_-_amphi_15

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Watanabe m 20150709_1500_upmc_jussieu_-_amphi_15

  1. 1. Our common future under climate change, July 9, 2015, Paris Innovative adaptation of pastoral system to climate change: - Case study in Mongolia – Masataka Watanabe (Chuo University) Togtokh Chuluun (Natinal University of Mongolia) Satoko Watanabe (Chuo University)
  2. 2. Annual mean temperature,1940-2013 Annual mean precipitation,1940-2013 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Temperaturechange,0 C -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP2.6 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Temperaturechange,0 C -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP2.6 Future temperature change in a) Winter and b) summer Current Permafrost in 2000 Permafrost in 2100 under RCP8.5 a) b) Future change in permafrost distribution (2100) Climate Change in Mongolia Permafrost melting, 1970-2013
  3. 3. 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 1958 1966 1974 1982 1990 1998 2006 2014 Millionheads 9.6 million heads decreased (1999-2002) 11.3 million heads decreased (2009-2010) Livestock numbers from 1958 to 2014 Market economySocialist planned economy
  4. 4. Climate Change and Adaptation in Mongolia Control of livestock number within carrying capacity Conservation of pastureland Pastureland degradation Exceed Carrying Capacity Climate Change Permafrost melting Pastureland degradation Shift to market economy since 1990 Extreme weather in winter Short term : Zud & Livestock Loss Food shortage in spring/summer, Damage to livestock economy Needs for ecosystem-based adaptation Drought in summer livestock number increase Goat fraction increase Long term: Water resources degradation
  5. 5. Needs for adaptation infrastructure in Mongolia weather monitoring and zud prediction management of pastureland/livestock number meat processing planning, frozen meat storage supply chain, ecological branding Key points of intensive livestock production facility Self-sustaining distributed social infrastructure by using renewable energy Weather monitoring, zud prediction, network of rangeland/livestock number management by using ICT Effective supply chain network consist of large scale freezers (collection center) and container-type freezers (rural area)
  6. 6. Adaptation MitigationDevelopment Low carbon Society Co-benefit Sustainable Green Development Climate resilient society Goal : Sustainable Green Development in Mongolia Development of freezer storage system with renewable energy Advanced zud prediction Early warning through mobile telephone and early harvest CO2 reduction by freezer storage system with renewable energy Permafrost melting, water cycle change and grassland degradation due to climate change Evaluation of CO2 sequestration by grassland conservation through carrying capacity Management of storage system as new commons Economic evaluation and planning for adaptation and development Freezer system with renewable energy
  7. 7. 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 %loss Buutsagaan ΔL_loss(Bayanhongor) ΔL_loss(Som) new index Index 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 %loss Zag ΔL_loss(Bayanhongor) ΔL_loss(Som) new index index 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 %loss Khüreemaral ΔL_loss(Bayanhongor) ΔL_loss(Som) New Index Index Vulnerability index = F(Ts, Ps, Tw, Pw, Forage, Hay harvest) Vulnerability index and loss in 3 soums in Bayanhogor
  8. 8. Zud Early Warning System 8 World weather forecast ・Automatic processing softwares - Cutout of region and meteorological elements, and Downscaling - Calculation of Zud Index - Estimation of Vulnerability - Visualization storage Operation System in Mongolia ・9month global forecast ・4 times every day (in the case of CFSv2 by NCEP/NOAA) Data acquisition system with internet Early warning through National Emergency Management Agency ↑↑↑ ・Vegetation growth ・Livestock population ・Livestock intake
  9. 9. “Western” models Farms/ranches Rich herders (10%) “Hot ails” Win-Win Farmer’s association Community based natural resource management Strengthening of traditional pastoral networks Tragedy of Commons Weak cooperation Landscape fragmentation Land degradation Poverty trap (40%) Traditional System Strong cooperation Cultural landscape use Ecosystem state is good Subsistence Cooperation Use of cultural landscape/State of ecosystem services Weak/ Low Strong/ High Well-being Poo r Rich Loss of adaptive capacity to climate variability Sustainable transformation How to achieve sustainable green development under maintaining carrying capacity in Mongolia ? storage system as new commons storage system as private property
  10. 10. Challenges  Freezer technology using renewable energy  Economical incentive for carrying capacity by ecological branding  Taxation over critical number of livestock per capita (ca. 50 heads)  Win-win scenario  Sustainable Green Development which satisfy adaptation, mitigation and development aspect simultaneously

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