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Farmers’ perceptions of and adaptations to
changing climate in the Melamchi River Valley of
Nepal
Dietrich Schmidt–Vogt
Na...
Kunming Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences
In collaboration with HELVETAS Swiss Intercooperation
World Agrof...
Research Objectives
To assess the magnitude and trends of climate
change and climate related hazards on
farmers‘ livelihoo...
Perception – documentation of farmers view
Community-based Risk Screening Tool – Adaptation & Livelihoods (CRiSTAL)
Total ...
Sujakhu, N.M., Ranjitkar, S., Niraula, R.R., Pokharel, B.K., Schmidt-Vogt, D., Xu, J. Livelihood vulnerability of marginal...
Droughts
Perception of temperature
• 95% respondents perceived avg. annual temp. raised;
• 55% stated hotter summer;
• 39% claimed ...
Major hazards, their severity and average cost as reported by respondents
Hazard
No. of respondents
reporting hazards (n =...
Major livelihood resources Drought Landslide Crop
pest
Thunder
storm
Hail
stone
Flood
Scores
and Rank
Agriculture and food...
Impacts of Climate change and climate related hazards
‘n’ refers to number of responses in each entity.
Current adaptation practices
Hazards Impacts Current responses Sustainability Strategies for improving
adaptive capacity
Drought Decline in
crop yield
...
3424 deaths(40% of total) in Sindhupalchok
Conclusions
Local percpetion is validated by current climate trend
Droughts which increased in frequency after 2003 were p...
Thank you
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Schmidt vogt d-20150709_1730_upmc_jussieu_-_room_101_(building_14-24)

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Schmidt vogt d-20150709_1730_upmc_jussieu_-_room_101_(building_14-24)

  1. 1. Farmers’ perceptions of and adaptations to changing climate in the Melamchi River Valley of Nepal Dietrich Schmidt–Vogt Nani Maiya Sujakhu Sailesh Ranjitkar
  2. 2. Kunming Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences In collaboration with HELVETAS Swiss Intercooperation World Agroforestry Center National Climate Change of China With financial support from IDRC Project Objectives Assessing climate change and its impact on water resources at the regional, basin and local levels. Establishing a database and expand networks to further broaden information-based policy dialogues in the Asian Highlands. Case studies from China, Pakistan and Nepal to assess vulnerabilities and capabilities of local communities to adapt effectively to climate-induced water stresses and hazards. Engage with key decision-makers by sharing policy research highlighting current trends related to Asian Highlands water governance.
  3. 3. Research Objectives To assess the magnitude and trends of climate change and climate related hazards on farmers‘ livelihood in the Melamchi Valley, Nepal To analyze the model and accuracy of famers‘ perception of climate change To investigate farmers‘ adaptation practices
  4. 4. Perception – documentation of farmers view Community-based Risk Screening Tool – Adaptation & Livelihoods (CRiSTAL) Total four focus group discussions 30 participants (15 from each gender) Households (HHs) survey: 365 households from eight Village Development Committees Climate data analysis – scientifically validating farmers perception Historical temperature and rainfall pattern PDSI (Palmer Drought S Index) Analysis and interpretation Link farmers perception with climatic pattern, hazards and adaptation practices Future climate condition, future crop vulnerability and strategies for improving adaptive capacity Methodology
  5. 5. Sujakhu, N.M., Ranjitkar, S., Niraula, R.R., Pokharel, B.K., Schmidt-Vogt, D., Xu, J. Livelihood vulnerability of marginalized social groups to climate change in the Melamchi Valley of Central Nepal (ms submitted to Ambio) Study Area
  6. 6. Droughts
  7. 7. Perception of temperature • 95% respondents perceived avg. annual temp. raised; • 55% stated hotter summer; • 39% claimed cooler winter and • 19% said warmer winter than before Perception of precipitation Farmers’ perception:
  8. 8. Major hazards, their severity and average cost as reported by respondents Hazard No. of respondents reporting hazards (n = 365) Severity Average cost per HHs (US dollar) Erratic precipitation 38 2.5 102 Strong wind 86 3 407 Flood 94 3.27 841 Landslide 134 3.5 793 Hail 190 3 248 Crop pests 225 3.16 282 Drought 318 3.3 211 Severity: 1=very low, 2= low, 3=medium,4=high and 5=very high Source HHs survey in Melamchi Valley, Feb to July 2013
  9. 9. Major livelihood resources Drought Landslide Crop pest Thunder storm Hail stone Flood Scores and Rank Agriculture and food security 2 3 2 1 2 1 11(I) Forest and biodiversity 2 2 1 1 1 1 8(II) Health and mortality 3 1 2 1 1 0 8(II) Livestock 2 2 2 1 0 1 8(II) Water resource 2 2 1 0 0 1 6(III) House 0 2 0 1 1 1 5(IV) Road 1 3 0 1 0 0 5(IV) Irrigation channel 2 1 0 0 0 1 4(V) Wage labor 2 0 0 0 1 0 3(VI) Water mill 3 0 0 0 0 0 3(VI) Total score and rank 19(I) 16(II) 8(III) 6 6 6 Source : CRiSTAL Analysis in Melamchi Valley, July 2013 Scores: significant impact 3; medium impact 2; low impact 1; and no impact 0 Vulnerability matrix of Melamchi Valley prepared during CRiSTAL exercise
  10. 10. Impacts of Climate change and climate related hazards
  11. 11. ‘n’ refers to number of responses in each entity. Current adaptation practices
  12. 12. Hazards Impacts Current responses Sustainability Strategies for improving adaptive capacity Drought Decline in crop yield Land left barren during dry season No, less food and less income - Integrated water resources management and irrigation channel development - Development of early maturing and drought tolerating varieties - improved livestock managemen byt integrating fodder trees Late sowing Yes Increased use of intercropping Yes Less water for household purposes and irrigation Less water demanding agricultural alternatives (plastic tunnel vegetable farming, selection of improved variety) Yes, adopted by few farmers at present, needs to be promoted Livestock farming, income generation from selling livestock products (milk, chicken and eggs) Yes Labor migration Yes Crop pests and diseases Decline in crop yield Use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides No, it reduces the natural soil fertility and the resistance of plants to harmful micro- organisms and increases resistance of the target pests to pesticides - Promotion of integrated insect, pest and disease management practices - Scientifically sound mixed cropping based on experience from other area Climate risk analysis derived from CRiSTAL exercise
  13. 13. 3424 deaths(40% of total) in Sindhupalchok
  14. 14. Conclusions Local percpetion is validated by current climate trend Droughts which increased in frequency after 2003 were perceived as a major hazard Climate hazards need to be assessed in context with other environmental hazards Current adaptation practices need to be improved in view of multiple challenges
  15. 15. Thank you

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