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Low climate IMpact scenarios and the Implications of required
Tight emission control Strategies
The research leading to th...
Global emission pathways and carbon budgets
Kriegler et al. (2013) Climate Change Economics
5220-6250 GtCO2
3630-4970 GtCO...
The 4 phases of 2oC pathways
Peak in
2020
Steep
emissions
reduction
Carbon
neutrality Carbon
dioxide
removal
Kriegler et a...
Trend break in decarbonization rates
2020-30
decarbonization rate:
450 ppm immediate action
500 ppm immediate action
2005-...
Durban Failure: delay until 2030 will likely put 2°C out of reach
Steeper decline after
2030
More carbon dioxide
removal
K...
5
Implications for the major economies
Deep emissions reduction necessary
6
• Deep and rapid
reductions
needed in a
major
economies
• Models identify
feasible
te...
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
MIDDLE EAST
EIT
AFRICA
INDIA
CHINA
REST ASIA
LATIN AM
PAC OECD
NORTH AM
EUROPE
450 ppm-eq
50...
8
Regional carbon budgets (2010-2100)
Medians and 90 percentile
ranges. Source: Tavoni et.
Al, 2014, Nature Climate
Change...
9
Regional carbon budgets (2010-2100)
Medians and 90 percentile
ranges. Source: Tavoni et.
Al, 2014, Nature Climate
Change...
Deep emissions reduction necessary
CH4, N2O
• Most important
contribution
energy
production in all
regions,
especially in
...
Upscale deployment of carbon free electricity
11 van der Zwaan et al. (2013) A Cross-Model Comparison of Global Long-Term ...
12
The distribution of mitigation costs
Source: Tavoni et. Al,
2014, Nature Climate
Change
With uniform carbon pricing and...
13
Burden sharing schemes
Resource sharing:
Allocation based on the equalization of regional per capita
emissions by 2050
...
14
Actual emissions and allowances in 2050 compatible with 2C
EU/US:-70-80%
China:-50%
China:-70%
EU/US:-90-95%
India:+40%...
15
What carbon market and transfers will be needed?
In both schemes, a large carbon market would be needed by the
year 203...
Changes in direction of investments and upscaling needed
2010
Reference
2 degrees
• Redirection of investments: from fossi...
17
The clean energy investment gap
A gap of about 500 USD Billions-yr exists, 2/3 of which in developing economies
McCollu...
Combining climate policy and air pollution control
18
(
b
)
Global PM2.5concentrations~30.4µg/m3 Global PM2.5concentration...
Conclusions
• Globally, 2050 emission reduction around 40-
70% for CO2 – strongly depending on
expectations with respect t...
20
Post 2020 climate scenarios assessed in the project
• No Policies: baseline
• Fragmented: national pledges extrapolated...
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Pathways towards 2°C: Global pathways and implications for European climate policy, Detlef van Vuuren, Massimo Tavoni, Elmar Kriegler, Keywan Riahi

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D. Van Vuuren (Utrecht University , -, Netherlands), at the Our Common Future Under Climate Change conference, July 7-10 in Paris, France.

More at http://www.commonfuture-paris2015.org/

Published in: Science
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Pathways towards 2°C: Global pathways and implications for European climate policy, Detlef van Vuuren, Massimo Tavoni, Elmar Kriegler, Keywan Riahi

  1. 1. Low climate IMpact scenarios and the Implications of required Tight emission control Strategies The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Community’s Seventh Framework Programme FP7/2007-2013 under grant agreement n° 282846 (LIMITS) Pathways towards 2°C: Global pathways and implications for European climate policy Detlef van Vuuren, Massimo Tavoni, Elmar Kriegler and Keywan Riahi
  2. 2. Global emission pathways and carbon budgets Kriegler et al. (2013) Climate Change Economics 5220-6250 GtCO2 3630-4970 GtCO2 1000-1570 GtCO2 670-1100 GtCO2 2.9-5.9°C 0% 2.4-4.7°C 0-4% 1.5-2.7°C 41-64% 1.4-2.4°C 59-76% Cumulative CO2 emissions 2011-2100 Warming since preindustrial Prob. of staying below 2°C 2C requires early peaking of emissions and small CO2 budgets
  3. 3. The 4 phases of 2oC pathways Peak in 2020 Steep emissions reduction Carbon neutrality Carbon dioxide removal Kriegler et al. (2013) Climate Change Economics
  4. 4. Trend break in decarbonization rates 2020-30 decarbonization rate: 450 ppm immediate action 500 ppm immediate action 2005-2010 decarbonization rate 2°C 550 ppm 2°C 450 ppm Rate of reduction in carbon intensity of GDP (2010-2040) Kriegler et al. (2013) Climate Change Economics 4(4), 1340008.
  5. 5. Durban Failure: delay until 2030 will likely put 2°C out of reach Steeper decline after 2030 More carbon dioxide removal Kriegler et al. (2013) Climate Change Economics
  6. 6. 5 Implications for the major economies
  7. 7. Deep emissions reduction necessary 6 • Deep and rapid reductions needed in a major economies • Models identify feasible technically trajectories
  8. 8. 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 MIDDLE EAST EIT AFRICA INDIA CHINA REST ASIA LATIN AM PAC OECD NORTH AM EUROPE 450 ppm-eq 500 ppm-eq Pledges No Policies 7 Peaking time of emissions Medians and 90 percentile ranges. Source: Tavoni et. Al, 2014, Nature Climate Change Pledges lead to earlier emission peaking in many major economies, but 2C would require peaking in all regions in the next 10-15 years
  9. 9. 8 Regional carbon budgets (2010-2100) Medians and 90 percentile ranges. Source: Tavoni et. Al, 2014, Nature Climate Change Without climate policies, the carbon budgets of major regions like China or the OECD would by themselves exceed the budget compatible with 2C
  10. 10. 9 Regional carbon budgets (2010-2100) Medians and 90 percentile ranges. Source: Tavoni et. Al, 2014, Nature Climate Change Pledges would roughly reduce carbon budgets by half, but not enough to meet 2C. Under 2C, no major region would have a carbon budgets exceeding few hundreds GtCO2
  11. 11. Deep emissions reduction necessary CH4, N2O • Most important contribution energy production in all regions, especially in China, India • Contribution of end-use about 15-20% of total • Land use / non- CO2 about 5- 10% of reduction each Fraction of baseline emissions (2010-2050)
  12. 12. Upscale deployment of carbon free electricity 11 van der Zwaan et al. (2013) A Cross-Model Comparison of Global Long-Term Technology Diffusion under a 2°C Climate Change Control Target. Climate Change Economics 4(4), 1340013. 2°C 450 ppm scenario
  13. 13. 12 The distribution of mitigation costs Source: Tavoni et. Al, 2014, Nature Climate Change With uniform carbon pricing and no transfers, climate policies are likely to be regressive across regions, due to developing countries higher carbon intensity
  14. 14. 13 Burden sharing schemes Resource sharing: Allocation based on the equalization of regional per capita emissions by 2050 Effort sharing: Allocation based on equalization of regional mitigation costs (2025 onwards) IAMs maximize policy efficiency (equal marginal abatement costs) -> determine actual emissions levels Mitigation doesn’t need to be paid domestically -> carbon markets and permit allocation trading
  15. 15. 14 Actual emissions and allowances in 2050 compatible with 2C EU/US:-70-80% China:-50% China:-70% EU/US:-90-95% India:+40% MEast:+25% Tavoni et. Al 2014 Nature Climate Change
  16. 16. 15 What carbon market and transfers will be needed? In both schemes, a large carbon market would be needed by the year 2030 • 4 GtCO2-yr by 2030 … in every year, more than twice the CERs issued by all CDM projects to date • 100 USD Billions-yr of transfers • Trading positions depend on regional abatement opportunities and allocation scheme: OECD buyers, China/Russia/Middle East sellers only in the effort sharing scheme.
  17. 17. Changes in direction of investments and upscaling needed 2010 Reference 2 degrees • Redirection of investments: from fossil fuel extraction towards renewables and energy efficiency • Total increase of investments. 450 scenario requires about 500-600 billion US$ per year more than reference scenario
  18. 18. 17 The clean energy investment gap A gap of about 500 USD Billions-yr exists, 2/3 of which in developing economies McCollum et. Al 2014 Climate Change Economics
  19. 19. Combining climate policy and air pollution control 18 ( b ) Global PM2.5concentrations~30.4µg/m3 Global PM2.5concentrations~50.3µg/ Global PM2.5concentrations~34.0µg/m3 Global PM2.5concentrations~26.0µg/ (c) Global PM2.5concentrations~15.7µg/m3 Global PM2.5concentrations~12.3µg/ (e) BaU Climate Policy Stringent air pollution policy Both
  20. 20. Conclusions • Globally, 2050 emission reduction around 40- 70% for CO2 – strongly depending on expectations with respect to BECCS • Possible to derive corresponding budgets for Europe – with/without burdensharing • Additional investments needed of around 500 US$ billion per year • Co-benefits could be substantial 19
  21. 21. 20 Post 2020 climate scenarios assessed in the project • No Policies: baseline • Fragmented: national pledges extrapolated beyond 2020/2030 at two levels of ambition (‘reference’ and ‘strengthened’, and no international coordination • 2C: full cooperation post 2020/2030 towards 450ppm and 500 ppm, with equal carbon pricing and different burden sharing schemes

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